packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM should be much better tonight with new data ingest and within 24 hours.I am interested in the SREF, RGEM, GFS and UK. And of course Euro. The key is we need it tracking through Florida, not GA/SC, when it hits the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll be lucky to get enough sleet in order to cut down on the zr totals Good luck to you Michelle, good luck to anyone else in the ZR bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 like WxKnurd said Phil is an expert on the microclimate here. Just worrisome but I'm leaning on NWS and Robert hard! Yep it's always tough trying to figure out what side of the line you're on though. Yep, I'm still getting use to dealing more with riding that transition line here in the CLT area having grown up in HKY. I'm probably in one of the better spots, outside of griteater who is up by Lake Norman, in Mecklenburg to hold the mixing at bay as long as possible. If MBY can get to the 6" mark or above before a possible transition and then switch back as the deform band comes through I'll consider that a huge win. Make my use if vacation time worth it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Turned off performance mode... today has been a better day regarding traffic bottlenecks. Locations should be shown again in everyone's user panes.Of all the things turned off I think location was the most missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, I'm still getting use to dealing more with riding that transition line here in the CLT area having grown up in HKY. I'm probably in one of the better spots, outside of griteater who is up by Lake Norman, in Mecklenburg to hold the mixing at bay as long as possible. If MBY can get to the 6" mark or above before a possible transition and then switch back as the deform band comes through I'll consider that a huge win. Make my use if vacation time worth it! Luckily at work I was the "weather guy" so I got to make the call about work/no work tomorrow and they wanted me watching maps, etc... today to stay up to date! Finally this hobby has literally paid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pulled from the MA thread, [sNIPPED IMAGE] There's some random cities on there, haha. Teays Valley, WV (that's not even an incorporated city) instead of Charleston, WV (maybe to avoid confusion with Charleston, SC, but then why not using Huntington, WV?)? Rockville, MD instead of Washington, DC? Edgartown, MA instead of Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me try this question in the wild and crazy Burns thread: Can anyone tell us about the EPS ensemble mean track or the members? I know that it's a little late in the game to be using the ensembles but I wondered if the mean track was east of the op. Thanks! Operational Euro and the ensemble mean are like right on top of each other. No matter what happens this storm is a huge Euro win. It sniffed it out days before the other models and also had the track on the coast way before the other models. Some model is always going to be 50-100 miles off, although the spread this time is kinda nuts. No matter what I get it's pretty exciting to be on the eve of a historic SE storm. People will be talking about the ice in GA, SC and maybe NC for the rest of their lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Alright - time for me to exit AmWx for the duration and free up some bandwidth. I'm going with (for upstate SC): North and west of I-85 = 9"-10". Southern upstate SC = 4"-6" with sleet mixing. Debating mixing issues, tracks, etc at this point is all that will happen in the threads. I do not buy mixing as a problem for my area. Not one bit. Model watching is irrelevant now. And yes - Euro did well. It always does in a **Split Flow**. See you all on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is what Fishel just said on Twitter... wralweather @wralweather 26m Snow lovers, sledders may be disappointed with this storm. Accumulation totals: The maps hows Wake County in the 1-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Grit is the pick me up of the night with his 7-10 forecast for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 People a lot smarter than us are saying it's not. If the Euro tracks west of Morehead City that will be pretty amazing beat down of the rest of the models. If it tracks east of there then it will be an inside 48hr Euro bust. I think we will know a little better tonight, the GFS was close to being very Euro like at 18z. We are splitting 50 miles at this point, which is well within the noise of the short term mesos, and ECMWF. Track through the OBX to just of the VA Capes, from a potential energy standpoint, one could argue it pulls just offshore to the ATL waters. I have a hard time believing the slp rides 95 through NC given the 850 track. The RGEM does give some pause though, neg axis west of the MS, real monster with the H5 close off and PVA tail. Model tends to perform better than the NAM at any range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Grit is the pick me up of the night with his 7-10 forecast for MBY. You got to like the SREF track, this is the all CLT/GSO snow track, wouldn't pay attention to temps on the SREF though, IMO. Latest 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Forgive me if the way I ask this doesn't make sense, but have the various layers of the atmosphere trended colder this afternoon leading to more of a snowy solution for more people irregardless of the exact location of the lp? Obviously the track will have an impact on QPF and cold air to some extent, but it seems like there is less concern around a warm nose now than there was earlier in the day. Thanks in advance for any replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Luckily at work I was the "weather guy" so I got to make the call about work/no work tomorrow and they wanted me watching maps, etc... today to stay up to date! Finally this hobby has literally paid off. Ironically I was to start my two-week rotation for work up in Ohio this week but won't head up til Friday afternoon probably (as long as Interstates are cleared enough to do so) as I decided experiencing a possible historic storm was worth a vacation day or two. Already seen numerous below zero temperatures and wind chills up there this winter along with numerous 2-4" snows. This storm will hopefully be the cherry on the top of this 2013-2014 winter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just want to throw this out there. The 00z GFS actually showed this storm pretty close to what looks like will verify at the hr 200+ mark. It's pretty amazing, actually. I don't know if you guys remember that ridiculous PBP I did in the banter thread for it about 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You got to like the SREF track, this is the all CLT/GSO snow track, wouldn't pay attention to temps on the SREF though, IMO. Latest 21z SREF Beautiful track! Why don't you put more of this in the discussion thread instead of banter? EDIT: It actually ticked WEST of the 15z run. I have to get out of this negative thread. It's rubbing off on me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jc697 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey John !! Snow must be on the way. Yup, got gas for the generator. 18z models scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I would not call it a bust. It got the general idea right. But everything else points to the track being further east, even just a little bit. You are so, the ultimate Wishcaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am interested in the SREF, RGEM, GFS and UK. And of course Euro. The key is we need it tracking through Florida, not GA/SC, when it hits the Atlantic. Dont worry.. its not. The SLP is ese of Brownsville TX @ 1014mb. Surface trough is across north FL. The path of least resistance would be N florida into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How much do you all expect Danville, VA to get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just want to throw this out there. The 00z GFS actually showed this storm pretty close to what looks like will verify at the hr 200+ mark. It's pretty amazing, actually. I don't know if you guys remember that ridiculous PBP I did in the banter thread for it about 10 days ago. That's the beauty of the GFS. At 4 times a day and no consistency it shows every possibility. You just never know which one was right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dont worry.. its not. The SLP is ese of Brownsville TX @ 1014mb. Surface trough is across north FL. The path of least resistance would be N florida into the Atlantic. Has every model not trended to the Euro and RGEM today? Showing it going through Southern Georgia and up between 95 and the shore line. Just really hard to bet against the EURO and its 97% accuracy, the Canadian and for the most part UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Has every model not trended to the Euro and RGEM today? Showing it going through Southern Georgia and up between 95 and the shore line. Just really hard to bet against the EURO and its 97% accuracy, the Canadian and for the most part UK. UK tracked it along the panhandle of FL off the coast of CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You are so, the ultimate Wishcaster... There has been plenty of evidence why it would be more east of the Euro. The only reason given for the Euro track being right or going more west is because that is what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How much do you all expect Danville, VA to get? >12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is what Fishel just said on Twitter... wralweather @wralweather 26m Snow lovers, sledders may be disappointed with this storm. Accumulation totals: The maps hows Wake County in the 1-4" range. He would do that every time there is a snow threat no matter what the models show until things start going. There is no way it is only 1 to 4 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Beautiful track! Why don't you put more of this in the discussion thread instead of banter? EDIT: It actually ticked WEST of the 15z run. I have to get out of this negative thread. It's rubbing off on me! Yeah, it did a little, but there was less spread in E NC, so less members were taking it inland. I'll take it. That track works for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Everyone (including mby) in the ZR zone please prepare and be safe!! I went through a nasty ice storm in the RDU area in Dec. 2005. I was without power for over a week. The irony is I was taking Atmospheric Processes at Carolina at the time and we discussed how catastrophic an inch of ice was going to be and I still did not comprehend it until it happened. I wish I would have prepared more for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There has been plenty of evidence why it would be more east of the Euro. The only reason given for the Euro track being right or going more west is because that is what it shows. DT's double E may no longer apply, ER (Euro/RGEM) may be the new lock at 36-48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 brysonwnc, on 11 Feb 2014 - 8:40 PM, said:The area between Asheville NC and i-85 has little to no coverage from local or national news, Any ideas for this area? It's all downhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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