burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:40 AM, HurricaneTracker said: Yes! Bring it on. RGEM has been looking a lot like the Euro only a little deeper low in far eastern NC. Could be an amazing run for all. Except for all those outside of the mountains battling sleet and ZR! No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:41 AM, burgertime said: Except for all those outside of the mountains battling sleet and ZR! No thanks. I'll be lucky to get enough sleet in order to cut down on the zr totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:40 AM, HurricaneTracker said: Yes! Bring it on. RGEM has been looking a lot like the Euro only a little deeper low in far eastern NC. Could be an amazing run for all.if we get a phased bomb like that this will be an one of the all time greats for the mtns and fhills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:41 AM, burgertime said: Except for all those outside of the mountains battling sleet and ZR! No thanks. I hear ya. I know you guys want an east track. Just so hard to bet against the Euro and it's amazing EPS ensembles. They have all been stout. Wishing you all safe and warm during this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:42 AM, buckeyefan1 said: I'll be lucky to get enough sleet in order to cut down on the zr totals You are in for one hell of an Ice Storm Michelle, probably 1.25" worth of accretion, rates may be your saving grace rather than IP, but it is still going to be a get the candles out type deal. I am sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:40 AM, baxterbunc said: Does anyone recall another event with such a wide variance between nws official and tv met consensus forecasts? Clt mets all have 4-6 and the nws says 12. Craziness. TV Mets are ALWAYS going to be lower until the storm sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:42 AM, buckeyefan1 said: I'll be lucky to get enough sleet in order to cut down on the zr totals Indeed really sucks for you guys. Seriously, stay safe. Hit me up on FB if you and whoever you got need a place to crash. Got a spare bedroom a few mattresses and a big couch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pulled from the MA thread, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RGEM and Euro are too far west, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:30 AM, jc697 said: Curious if there is a correlation between predictive temps in the low to mid 20's and dryness of snow. Hoping that lower temps will keep trees and power lines somewhat clear. Thoughts? Hey John !! Snow must be on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well Phil is officially my Grinch of the night. He is buying what the Euro and RGEM are selling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:55 AM, WeatherNC said: Pulled from the MA thread, It made me laugh. Probably did it because all the soccer mom's don't like his bread and milk index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:01 AM, burgertime said: Well Phil is officially my Grinch of the night. He is buying what the Euro and RGEM are selling! Burger...I get what he's saying based on models. However, I prefer the blend of OUR NWS and Robert maybe a tad more. They understand a bit more our microclimates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:03 AM, burgertime said: It made me laugh. Probably did it because all the soccer mom's don't like his bread and milk index. the other way to look at it is that for a lot of us, this storm could certainly warrant going through three bottles of wine easily lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:55 AM, WeatherNC said: Pulled from the MA thread, Let me tell you why that is funny. My wife and I picked up three bottles of wine yesterday for the storm. Best part is, I don't even drink wine. I just take vitamins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:05 AM, CLTwx said: Burger...I get what he's saying based on models. However, I prefer the blend of OUR NWS and Robert maybe a tad more. They understand a bit more our microclimates? Phil knows the microclimates very well here. Hearing him say more mixing is a downer but hey, this is a storm where a wiggle of 25 miles one way or the other can change what and how much falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:01 AM, burgertime said: Well Phil is officially my Grinch of the night. He is buying what the Euro and RGEM are selling! Even though the WPC said it is not physically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow2013 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Accumulations for cleveland county. Any thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:05 AM, CLTwx said: Burger...I get what he's saying based on models. However, I prefer the blend of OUR NWS and Robert maybe a tad more. They understand a bit more our microclimates? like WxKnurd said Phil is an expert on the microclimate here. Just worrisome but I'm leaning on NWS and Robert hard! On 2/12/2014 at 1:07 AM, WxKnurd said: Phil knows the microclimates very well here. Hearing him say more mixing is a downer but hey, this is a storm where a wiggle of 25 miles one way or the other can change what and how much falls. Yep it's always tough trying to figure out what side of the line you're on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:06 AM, jburns said: Let me tell you why that is funny. My wife and I picked up three bottles of wine yesterday for the storm. Best part is, I don't even drink wine. I just take vitamins. Let me know if you picked up a chicken, I will come over and help you both cook it on the grill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:07 AM, Brick Tamland said: Even though the WPC said it is not physically possible. Yea...they didn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:07 AM, Brick Tamland said: Even though the WPC said it is not physically possible. They didn't say it was not physically possible. They said it was not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me try this question in the wild and crazy Burns thread: Can anyone tell us about the EPS ensemble mean track or the members? I know that it's a little late in the game to be using the ensembles but I wondered if the mean track was east of the op. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:58 AM, Brick Tamland said: The RGEM and Euro are too far west, folks. People a lot smarter than us are saying it's not. If the Euro tracks west of Morehead City that will be pretty amazing beat down of the rest of the models. If it tracks east of there then it will be an inside 48hr Euro bust. I think we will know a little better tonight, the GFS was close to being very Euro like at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:10 AM, WeatherNC said: Let me know if you picked up a chicken, I will come over and help you both cook it on the grill. My wife just said that would be fine. We could cook while she drinks wine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:11 AM, packbacker said: People a lot smarter than us are saying it's not. If the Euro tracks west of Morehead City that will be pretty amazing beat down of the rest of the models. If it tracks east of there then it will be an inside 48hr Euro bust. I think we will know a little better tonight, the GFS was close to being very Euro like at 18z. NAM should be much better tonight with new data ingest and within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:20 AM, burgertime said: I honestly have no idea about the technical details of it. I would guess it's transmitted to a server than ingested into the program computing the data.It will go into the 00z runs of the NAM and GFS. Got it...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:11 AM, packbacker said: People a lot smarter than us are saying it's not. If the Euro tracks west of Morehead City that will be pretty amazing beat down of the rest of the models. If it tracks east of there then it will be an inside 48hr Euro bust. I think we will know a little better tonight, the GFS was close to being very Euro like at 18z. I would not call it a bust. It got the general idea right. But everything else points to the track being further east, even just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 1:11 AM, packfan98 said: Let me try this question in the wild and crazy Burns thread: Can anyone tell us about the EPS ensemble mean track or the members? I know that it's a little late in the game to be using the ensembles but I wondered if the mean track was east of the op. Thanks! The mean was fairly close to the Op, as you would expect at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 12:22 AM, Wow said: Turned off performance mode... today has been a better day regarding traffic bottlenecks. Locations should be shown again in everyone's user panes. Wow, thanks....no pun intended...or maybe it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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