LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can someone link me to sref plumes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 sorry if already posted but You sure don't see graphics like this from FFC very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I seriously doubt the euro is right with the slp over/near Hatteras. There is clear obvious damming and a stout lee side trough. Looking at the wind streamlines NE CAD winds have made it into western GA with northerly winds over east TN,AL and western GA. Also there is a developing LP trough east of Brownsville, TX with an enlongated trough offshore of Wilmington. By all said and done.. I say the SLP stays offshore of Hatteras completely but thats my 2c. I'm with you and we shall see. I think a track like you have and crawling up the outer banks is a good call. Low will take the path of least resistance and not try slamming into the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can someone link me to sref plumes? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ 15z not in yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Which is why you agree. of course lol But there is very solid logic behind it, and it's being backed up by a lot of pros, including HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's official ice accretion point forecast from KCAE, look at Bamberg with 1.01"! https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=582093108533960&set=a.132796646796944.32242.130918506984758&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 sorry if already posted but You sure don't see graphics like this from FFC very often. How often do you hear the term "Catastrophic" pre event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How often do you hear the term "Catastrophic" pre event? More often than you hear the term "historic". This one has them both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 New terminology post snowpocalypse for the area. How often do you hear the term "Catastrophic" pre event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I apologize to the moderators. I posted an article by DT in the discussion thread. It was a pretty in-depth post where he specifically talks about the I-85 corridor in NC and the mixing issues. I didn't mean to have folks banter up the thread with anti-DT posts. Please feel free to continue the banter in this thread where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 More often than you hear the term "historic". This one has them both. I've almost never heard that term used but very true. I said it before and I'll say it again. If someone wants to chase up in CLT to get out of the ZR hit me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I apologize to the moderators. I posted an article by DT in the discussion thread. It was a pretty in-depth post where he specifically talks about the I-85 corridor in NC and the mixing issues. I didn't mean to have folks banter up the thread with anti-DT posts. Please feel free to continue the banter in this thread where it belongs. Well like I said he could be right, but it just seemed mainly garbage to me. Like you pointed out why not rely on the Euro as he is doing for the MA? Very confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So, here are my odds for what marietta sees. 60% major sleetfest could be 5 inches. Most likely outcome. 25% freezing rain - god please no 15% snow I still am holdin on to a slight hope it gets cold enough for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's official ice accretion point forecast from KCAE, look at Bamberg with 1.01"! https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=582093108533960&set=a.132796646796944.32242.130918506984758&type=1&theater there wont be any trees left for the masters if that verifies. yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm with you and we shall see. I think a track like you have and crawling up the outer banks is a good call. Low will take the path of least resistance and not try slamming into the wedge. Agree. Right now via temps aloft and sst temps thats most likely what will happen- off shore of Wilmington and Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's official ice accretion point forecast from KCAE, look at Bamberg with 1.01"! https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=582093108533960&set=a.132796646796944.32242.130918506984758&type=1&theater I hadn't seen that yet...thanks Looks like .65 at the airport to the northeast, .96 to my southwest and I will fall somewhere in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think my snowcat avatar is the lucky charm. When I changed to the winter theme, s*** got real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like totals for RDU have been raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 daaaaaaamn, some people down east are getting it pretty good. I guess I was paying so much attention to tomorrows action that i didnt realize there were going to be some of the totals I'm hearing from the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well we're here, within 24 hours of this thing. only map I care about from here on out is the radar map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A great short read about snow ratio, for those that want to know.. http://www.theweathercorner.com/features.htm "The snow-depth to water-content ratio of newly fallen snow depends mainly upon the temperature at which the snow forms. Other things being equal, the table below gives the approximate relationship between water content of snow and snow depth within various temperature ranges:.10 inch of water equivalent produces...0.7 inch of snow at 35-38 degrees, and that is a 7:1 ratio of snow to water1.0 inch of snow at 28-34 degrees 10:1 ratio1.5 inches of snow at 20-27 degrees 15:1 ratio2.0 inches of snow at 15-19 degrees 20:1 ratio3.0 inches of snow at 10-14 degrees 30:1 ratio4.0 inches of snow at 0-9 degrees 40:1 ratio" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like totals for RDU have been raised. Brick, you were a brick wall today holding on the the positive attitude. Heck we still might get a dude but you held strong today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 daaaaaaamn, some people down east are getting it pretty good. I guess I was paying so much attention to tomorrows action that i didnt realize there were going to be some of the totals I'm hearing from the area. Yes, I saw on facebook where 95 south of Raleigh was bad. Seems the snow was further north and heavier than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Brick, you were a brick wall today holding on the the positive attitude. Heck we still might get a dude but you held strong today. What does this have to do with weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well here it is from RAH. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT IF NOT CRIPPLING WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... P-TYPES FROM SNOW IN THE NW TO A MAJOR ICING IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A WINTER STORM THIS PERIOD. AND FINALLY... A PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE. THE 12Z/OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SURFACE LOW TRACK ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF THE MODELS CURRENT DEPICTION. WPC PREFERS THIS MODEL ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH... BUT IS INCREASING WITH TIME. THIS SOLUTION ESSENTIALLY LEAVES OUR ONGOING FORECAST INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED. HOWEVER... THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD NOTED IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WITH THE FINAL TRACK... AND THE CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION TYPES... MEANING THAT A TRACK 50 MILES LEFT (WEST) WOULD MEAN MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING (FREEZING RAIN) POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD REGION... AND SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW/SLEET (FROZEN P-TYPE) ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING WITH A STRONG HIGH (1035+ MB)... DELIVERING VERY COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH (12Z/WED). THE HIGH DOES SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE SUPPLYING PLENTIFUL COLD DRY INTO OUR REGION TO SUPPORT A MAJOR WINTER STORM. VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT CORRESPONDS WITH THE VERY STRONG LIFT ARRIVING OVER OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY CORRESPONDING QPF. MUCH OF THE QPF WILL BE FROZEN/FREEZING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED. BEGINNING TIME...THE PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK... REACHING THE ALBEMARLE TO FAYETTEVILLE AREAS BY MID-MORNING... THEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS EITHER JUST BEFORE NOON (TRIAD) AND AROUND NOON IN THE TRIANGLE. THE FAR NE ZONES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ONSET OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT DUE TO LIKELY BEING IN THE HEART OF THE VERY DRY COLD RIDGING DURING THE DAY. REGARDLESS... ALL AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE IMPACT BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND HAZARDS...PARTIALS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCORPORATING MODEL OF CHOICE AND WPC PROBABILISTIC WINTER PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION... SNOW MIXING WITH CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE AND WADESBORO TO SOUTHERN PINES... RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. AND... FINALLY SNOW CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE SE ZONES... FROM THE SANDHILLS THROUGH THE SE COASTAL PLAIN REGION (FAY TO GSB TO NEAR RWI). A MAJOR...IF NOT CRIPPLING ICE STORM...APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS...THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT... AND WESTERN...IF NOT ALL THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE WILL TRY TO SEGMENT THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THREE OR FOUR GROUPS TO HONE IN ON THE EXPECTED P-TYPE TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW (AND TRIAD) WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SE SIDE OF THE TRIAD AS THERE MAY BE SOME MIX WITH SLEET (WED EVENING)... THEN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY LATE WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS NE AND SATURATION IS LOST ALOFT). FOR THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND WADESBORO TO RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPID... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN... THE WARM NOSE IS MOST PROMINENT IN THE SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK THE LOW CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THE PREFERRED EC WOULD ALLOW THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AFTER 1-3 INCHES FALLS... THEN A TRANSITION TO A MAJOR ICING EVENT WED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE WILL COLLECT ON POWER LINES... TREES AND ALL EXPOSED SURFACES TO A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS WOULD BE MAJOR ICING AND IT COULD POSSIBLY REACH OR EXCEED SOME OF THE ICE STORM TOTALS AND IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AS THE DECEMBER 2002 ICE STORM. THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE A BRIEF SNOW TO START... WITH AN INCH OR SO... THEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY. HERE... A MAJOR ICING EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MORE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SURFACE WARMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 32 OR 33. LATENT HEAT (MELTING) AND HEAVY QPF SHOULD REDUCE THE ICING SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IF THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 31 OR BELOW THROUGH THE EVENT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL CONTINUE. AS IF THIS IS NOT ENOUGH...THE TRACK OF THE MID AND UPPER LOW MAY BE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY. IF SO... SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWS WOULD BE FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE NORTH TO THE VA BORDER. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE FINAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE ACCUMULATING ADDITIONAL SNOW THURSDAY. FOR NOW... SNOW IS LIKELY NORTH...A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE BEGINNING TO THE END OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH THE PRECIPITATION ONSET... THEN REACH 20-23 IN THE NW AND UPPER 20S SE. THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE... REMAINING 27- 32 THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scgirl Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hadn't seen that yet...thanks Looks like .65 at the airport to the northeast, .96 to my southwest and I will fall somewhere in the middle It's showing less than .75 for me - I feel better now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still going with RDU crashing the party on getting a decent hit. These on the line storms are fun. Side note: Man, CR, this board has really changed you since 'the guarantee' a few years back. Your posting style has gone all neggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like totals for RDU have been raised. That the exact same call map that Van Denton at Fox8 is using. Do they share call maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sorta just thinking out loud but I am also in the camp the LP will track just off the coast and not onshore. Reasons: #1 the better snowpack in ENC thanks to today's overpeformer#2: the warm SST off the coast#3 the strong CAD that is forecasted#4 the trough stretching from TX to just off Wilmington like ncweather stated.Storms don't like to run up and over snowcover if they don't have to. They like to ride the fringe of it and with the warm waters close by I think it will act to pull the storm just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does this have to do with weather? I thought the storm would turn into a cool dude..... ok It should have been dud. Man this has been a long drawn out event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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