packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm glad you think that. I don't have any idea why. HPC says this…now they haven't seen the 12z run yet, this was as of noon today. One problem is the 12z went 40 miles NW from it's 0z run, LOL. Per what they said below this would put the SLP over Hatteras. Good read actually... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILES SOUTH/EAST http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel bad for me too...lol You just don't count. CNN has a huge headline, PREPARING FOR THE WORST. This is follow by sub headings of. Is Georgia ready for 'historic' ice storm? Atlanta's guide to snow survival So it looks like a Georgia event. But let us know if you get a little bit of ice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Because it's trending that way and I just think so! BOOM! That's in model la la land. In the real world, that's not how it works. In the real world, it trends west and is warmer. You get a quick burst of snow/sleet, followed by a quick shot of freezing rain, followed by a dry slot, followed by a few flurries. And you will experience no appreciable snow accumulation whatsoever. If the Euro solution took that track, what I wrote will be a lot closer to reality than the five inches of fantasy snow that the model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FOX 8 is going ALL-IN. Just beautiful Right in the pink, (Alexander County) Have mainly avoided posting and done more reading basically waiting for any last minute changes etc.. Still looks so good for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 this isn't our storm in eastern NC but the snow is just hammering down right now...approaching 3 inches in just a very short time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Went west a little and it still gave RDU more snow and less ice. It's not going that far west. And it's not handling the power of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WxSouth on facebook: All systems go for an*** Historic Winter Storm *** in every sense of the word. This will be a rarely seen event for some parts of Alabama, Georgia the Carolinas region where so much snow and ice is abnormal. And I see signs the GFS and NAM and even Euro are going to be too light in some areas." It will be historic, but that doesn't mean EVERYWHERE in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's in model la la land. In the real world, that's not how it works. In the real world, it trends west and is warmer. You get a quick burst of snow/sleet, followed by a quick shot of freezing rain, followed by a dry slot, followed by a few flurries. And you will experience no appreciable snow accumulation whatsoever. If the Euro solution took that track, what I wrote will be a lot closer to reality than the five inches of fantasy snow that the model shows. WxSouth thinks the models are underestimating things. There is snow already today in eastern NC that is overperforming. HPC thinks the track will be more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hoping for the best for you, stay safe and warm! Thanks rosie You just don't count. CNN has a huge headline, PREPARING FOR THE WORST. This is follow by sub headings of. Is Georgia ready for 'historic' ice storm? Atlanta's guide to snow survival So it looks like a Georgia event. But let us know if you get a little bit of ice as well. Between that and the Jim Cantore jinx, I should be okay Right now....I'm enjoying surfing the interwebs while I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It will be historic, but that doesn't mean EVERYWHERE in the Carolinas. Whatever. I'm not going to be negative like the Legion of Gloom. If I am worng, then I'm wrong. Life goes on. Whatever happens will happen either way. So I choose to be positive about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Euro drops like 5" of SN in Raleigh, actually. It does change over to rain, though. I'm not a fan of the track, though I'm still probably good for 10-12", verbatim. We're sleeting for a bit, but that's a ton of QPF and it's borderline. I'm going to correct it SE a tick per the WPC correction and call it a day. With me being a little farther north would you expect my totals to be atleast over a foot? Cause I don't see us mixing much/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Got my parents setup with a generator today. 1,250.00 but they are set now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Went west a little and it still gave RDU more snow and less ice. It's not going that far west. And it's not handling the power of the CAD. I actually agree very much with Brick here. I think the sheer power of that CAD (every run keeps strengthening it) is going to kick it a little more west. Euro always underdoes CAD anyway. That 50 mile jog is going to make this event for RDU and put James, CLT, and I right in the absolute bingo zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is too far west and too warm. Just like the snow today overperformed to my south, it's going to do the same with the main show tomorrow. Yeah, I can see why you're thinking of that... Euro have not really gone anywhere with the totals in WNC the last 3-4 days and 12z continued that. IMO, Euro is the most stable and trustworthy model of all for this storm, especially with very high skills score last few days. All of models are thinking east so it's reasonable to forecast that a jackpot will end up being between Asheville and I-85 rather than straight up mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whatever. I'm not going to be negative like the Legion of Gloom. If I am worng, then I'm wrong. Life goes on. Whatever happens will happen either way. So I choose to be positive about it. I'm interested in what RAH is going to say this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Somebody help me with temps. Will all these cold temps, below freezing down to Augusta and such, be there befor the storm starts or get pulled into the developing storm? As much fun as this was, I want max accumulation tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whatever. I'm not going to be negative like the Legion of Gloom. If I am worng, then I'm wrong. Life goes on. Whatever happens will happen either way. So I choose to be positive about it. That's a good perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Went west a little and it still gave RDU more snow and less ice. It's not going that far west. And it's not handling the power of the CAD. The storm is creating its own environment! (or is that hurricane weenieism? I forget...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert just went "Epic storm looms" on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He said the flow was backing already, precipitation may continue and spread North and West with departing system. This would give us a lot more accumulations. I know local are saying precip arrives mid-day tomorrow, just looking at the radar it appears the two systems precipitation shields are becoming continuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is too far west and too warm. Just like the snow today overperformed to my south, it's going to do the same with the main show tomorrow.Based on what, other than your wishcasting? Euro has been the most consistent, and its hard to argue with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I actually agree very much with Brick here. I think the sheer power of that CAD (every run keeps strengthening it) is going to kick it a little more west. Euro always underdoes CAD anyway. That 50 mile jog is going to make this event for RDU and put James, CLT, and I right in the absolute bingo zone... Heck yeah! Posse up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I guess this will be the best thread for this. Local stations have focused more on Atl and metro. What's the second round looking like for Bartow County -- Cartersville area? We have about 2-3" of snow on the ground already. We are trying to be a bit more lenient in this thread with the IMBY(in my back yard) posts but if you do some reading in the storm thread the information you are looking for is in there. Probably several times. If the number of IMBY posts continues to grow we wil start deleting all of them in here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Based on what, other than your wishcasting? Euro has been the most consistent, and its hard to argue with that... Based on whatever the heck I want to base it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's a little from RAH. I had to get it from Avation discussion but it should give you an idea that it's going to get bad for a lot of us: .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE APT TO PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 4000-6000 FT AGL...THOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE RDU TERMINAL...THOUGH WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE RWI TERMINAL...WITH PRECIP ENDING AND CEILINGS EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WORST CONDITIONS (IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONALLY VLIFR) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE FAY TERMINAL IN ASSOC/W MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW (PERHAPS MIXING WITH SLEET)...WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR. NE/ENE WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL PREVAIL... PERHAPS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WED. LOOKING AHEAD: WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH-NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...FIRST AT FAY (12-15Z)...THEN RWI/RDU (15-18Z)...AND FINALLY AT INT/GSO BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION ASSOC/W SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT FROM WEST-EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. -VINCENT -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I actually agree very much with Brick here. I think the sheer power of that CAD (every run keeps strengthening it) is going to kick it a little more west. Euro always underdoes CAD anyway. That 50 mile jog is going to make this event for RDU and put James, CLT, and I right in the absolute bingo zone... Which is why you agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WxSouth NAM too dry already. Strong backing flow now. NAM, GFS both too dry in all of Carolinas, TN,north GA. RAP will adjust soon. Epic storm looms WxSouth water vapor and RAP confirms truth. Much more backing flow than forecast. Gulf opens wide starting in 3, 2, 1... GGEM was right 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Based on what, other than your wishcasting? Euro has been the most consistent, and its hard to argue with that... He is wishcasting, but there is some truth to what he says. The Euro is the furthest west and it wouldn't be surprising if the actually track was a compromise between the Euro and other models. Even NWS is following this logic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Shoot me a PM. PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Based on whatever the heck I want to base it on. Nice...well good for you then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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