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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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This is your storm out west but we are under a band of snow here in pitt county that has dropped just over an inch in 45 minutes.....its dumping snow and they are all half dollar sized flakes.....I won't get but a 2-3 inch event before all rain but man this band has been awesome.

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GGEM, looks good, ticked east, definitely east of RGEM at 48.  I imagine this would be another HKY to GSO special

 

 

The GGEM, GEFS, and UKIE look like perfect tracks.  Maybe the triad can stay all snow and the triangle can get a nice pasting of snow and sleet while keeping the liquid at bay.  

 

My gut tells me that the warm layer will be there in force.  You cant fight it off now matter how much you wish to!  

 

What are your thoughts as of now?

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Anyone know of a heavy band of snow right now over Union County NC? This is what the zonal forecast is for this afternoon:

 

"Snow. Patchy fog. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent."

 

Seems a bit much for this first storm.

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The GGEM, GEFS, and UKIE look like perfect tracks.  Maybe the triad can stay all snow and the triangle can get a nice pasting of snow and sleet while keeping the liquid at bay.  

 

My gut tells me that the warm layer will be there in force.  You cant fight it off now matter how much you wish to!  

 

What are your thoughts as of now?

 

Right now, a track over Hatteras is perfect for the triad.  For example, Dec 2010 tracked the SLP about 50-100 miles west of HAT (see below), and the heaviest snows were on the I-95 corridor.  This storms looks to have similar strength, maybe a little slower than Dec 2010, so I would expect the heaviest snows about 50-100 miles west of 95 which is right in the GSO to HKY corridor.  This storm won't be as cold as Dec 2010 as the high is sliding off the coast because this track is pretty good for RDU too but we don't have the cold except at the surface.  You don't want the Euro track, the mtns do, the Euro may mix you guys, assuming your in the triad.

 

 

hpc.observed.low.tracks.png

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Strongly agree! You can tell he's really into weather and doesn't just read NWS forecast!

I'm not on Facebook , so if you get a chance can you post his thoughts on this storm if its different from yesterday? Tia

 

About 30 minutes ago (Andy Wood):

 

"We're really past the point of forecast models helping much, and more so on to satellite and radar observations for tomorrow However, new 12z GFS dials up middle TN, upstate SC and all of NC for good snow. This thing is locked in and I don't expect major changes from here on through Thursday morning. In SC and southern NC, there will still be an undetermined amount of sleet cutting into snow totals"

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