mikepie Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really good discussion by FFC this morning! If it wasn't clear enough before, FFC makes sure to get it across this morning. .SHORT TERM /00Z WED THRU 12Z THU/... LETS JUST START BY SAYING THIS WINTER STORM MAY BE OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE ARE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS NORTH /ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST/ AND SIGNIFICANT... CRIPPLING...ICE TOTALS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHEST ICE TOTALS WILL BE IN A ROUGH WEDGE GENERALLY FROM THE METRO ATLANTA AREA AND POINTS EAST...SOUTH OF I-85...AND NORTH OF I-16. They have a long, but very detailed morning disco you can read there. Looks like they're expecting 7-9 inches of snow for NE GA, 4 inches for the remainder of N. GA, 2 inches for ATL metro, and 1 inch just south of there. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z GFS (MeteoStar) had me picking up .10" between 11PM and 8AM this morning, but everything has been 50 miles S of here overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcomb68 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can someone verify this moisture in the south? I was watching the animated radar and it seems to be showing the moisture moving Northeast or am I just imagining it? If so this brings it into Central North Carolina today and with all that moisture we may get some snow earlier? Local Mets are saying it's supposed to stay south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 anyone seen dawsonvillewx? He has models giving him freaking 10 to 12 inches of snow and he's no where around. wtf?no, figured he woukd be in full weenie mode by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 They just cancelled school in our county (Johnston) for today - probably in anticipation of snow moving in late morning into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can someone verify this moisture in the south? I was watching the animated radar and it seems to be showing the moisture moving Northeast or am I just imagining it? If so this brings it into Central North Carolina today and with all that moisture we may get some snow earlier? Local Mets are saying it's supposed to stay south of us. It's legit! Woke up about 5 min ago, 95% snow 5% rain!! If we get good rates, 1-2 inches for today!!? Awesome big flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcgreer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can someone verify this moisture in the south? I was watching the animated radar and it seems to be showing the moisture moving Northeast or am I just imagining it? If so this brings it into Central North Carolina today and with all that moisture we may get some snow earlier? Local Mets are saying it's supposed to stay south of us. Yep, light snain in Greer. I'm 1 mile from GSP airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really? Demon strip? Best post so far this thread..... Haha... that's just the deep south coming out Just being dramatic. Obviously. Shawn and stormsfury have me feeling mildly apocalyptic about the whole thing. Not looking forward to the damage we're going to see here, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pretty impressive numbers coming from local mets!! General agreement on 4-8 from all 3 affiliates. They all have a + sign after the last number! From all the model info, I think doubling those totals is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 These are some scary 3 hour zr rates from the 06 NAM for KJNX - 2 miles from me. Another disconcerting thing is - this all happens at night when you can't see what's going on. 39 02/12 21Z 29 27 41 17 0.12 0.00 544 562 1.2 -16.8 1022 100 FZRN 42 02/13 00Z 31 30 30 19 0.42 0.00 547 561 2.8 -17.5 1018 100 FZRN 45 02/13 03Z 31 30 27 15 0.49 0.00 548 560 5.2 -16.6 1014 100 FZRN 48 02/13 06Z 31 31 18 14 0.28 0.00 549 556 6.9 -17.0 1009 100 FZRN 51 02/13 09Z 31 30 343 12 0.16 0.00 547 552 5.5 -19.1 1006 100 -FZRN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Cold Rain/ RDU - major rain for us on the Euro, bummer. RGEM looks to flip to rain too, 6z GFS warmed us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6z NAM has CLT flipping to a lot of sleet, mixes GSO too. Warm nose always win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Waiting on UK. I am a mile from Chatham County line right off 64. GFS startingMy employer is at Jenks Rd and 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People*** should evacuate tomorrow before things get bad. GO SOUTH. If I didn't absolutely have to be here I'd be gone by now. Grab a hotel on the FL border. ***specifically, people in this demon strip from Augusta to Aiken to Columbia. It's heavily wooded, even inside the cities, and we're just utterly not prepared. Head to Waycross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel like I'm living in an alternate reality reading the language of ffc's discussion and seeing local tv mets calling for "catastrophic" freezing rain and more than 6 inches of snow in northeast ga. I've never heard this language being used before nor the amounts forecasted. I know we knew it was coming but to see them doing it is surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Are there any serious chances the snow/sleet today makes it north of the Lee/Harnett/Johnston line into the triangle? I'm wondering if Wake County schools will bail early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you're east of I-77 in NC I'd expect at least a period of sleet. Obviously the closer you are to 77 the less likely but you've gotta believe that warm nose will get us at some point during the storm So often 85 is the line, maybe it will be again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Cold Rain/ RDU - major rain for us on the Euro, bummer. RGEM looks to flip to rain too, 6z GFS warmed us too. It might but I wouldn't count on it. There is some real cold air being pushed down from the north. At hour 30 it has dew points in the mid teens for RDU and they never get above 30 through the event. This is historically a great setup for a big winter storm. At face value(and going on what Allen said about the models) this would be a huge ice storm. Now the big question is what is really going to happen. This is where you need real meterology over model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The fox21 anchor here just stole a Brick original thought:" this is the just the appetizer before the real storm" he owes Brick some royalties, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6z NAM has CLT flipping to a lot of sleet, mixes GSO too. Warm nose always win I'll take your forecast pack backer. Did you see Allan's comments on the other thread for the latest models? It was ominous and ugly for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can someone verify this moisture in the south? I was watching the animated radar and it seems to be showing the moisture moving Northeast or am I just imagining it? If so this brings it into Central North Carolina today and with all that moisture we may get some snow earlier? Local Mets are saying it's supposed to stay south of us. It's running more west to east vs. east north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It might but I wouldn't count on it. There is some real cold air being pushed down from the north. At hour 30 it has dew points in the mid teens for RDU and they never get above 30 through the event. This is historically a great setup for a big winter storm. At face value(and going on what Allen said about the models) this would be a huge ice storm. Now the big question is what is really going to happen. This is where you need real meterology over model output. Fall/Cary - let's see what the 12z runs show, I think the track will get locked in then. The Euro wasn't even close, had us hitting 35F around midnight tomorrow, still a nice thump before then. Still think if this tracks inside Hatteras we rain, over it or east we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Broad WSW finally issued for the Triad- Triangle. 3-5 inches of snow, with .1-.25" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Cold Rain/ RDU - major rain for us on the Euro, bummer. RGEM looks to flip to rain too, 6z GFS warmed us too. Thanks man. At this point, in for sleet, out for zr. So bring the sleet or bring the rain. Whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks man. At this point, in for sleet, out for zr. So bring the sleet or bring the rain. Whatevs. Agreed! Hopefully the 12z runs today are more indicative of track either way today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's strange to see RAH issue the Winter Storm warning valid from Winston-Salem over to Raleigh and to put a blanket 3-5 for the area without making it clear that the triad should see much more accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcomb68 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's strange to see RAH issue the Winter Storm warning valid from Winston-Salem over to Raleigh and to put a blanket 3-5 for the area without making it clear that the triad should see much more accumulation. I just mentioned that on Facebook too lol! ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD...WITH A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AND INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. * TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. * IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICING COULD SEVERELY DISRUPT TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POWER OUTAGES AND PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. * WINDS...FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY... INCREASING WEDNESDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bevo, it's Hitchcock again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It sure is. I do not see it moving N at all this morning. Good luck to all that are getting bonus flakes It's running more west to east vs. east north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks for posting Calc.. As of now, ray's site is down..lol Looks like a good call. I also like how he left the door open for more than 10+. That is in line with the Euro. I did it for the sake of the board!! You have no idea what I had to fight through to get that map. I attacked all other curious IP addresses with a brickbot and managed to sneak in past the firewall before the server crashed. AmWxForums is now the only place where you can see the Raysweather accumulation map! I think that screen capture used up all my strength though. Someone else will have to battle through to find the next map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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