Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So true...They are the professionals after all. It's just a hobby for me and a crappy one over the past 3 years. Touché! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So is the Canadian east? Pack, Pack?? Through 48 it looks the same to me, hour 60 is the big map, waiting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Eastern trends worrisome for mountains and foothills or just extending the snow line southeast? Yeah, already GSP has reduced some forecast totals for the Western most sections of the Upstate. If the trend continues over the next 2 days it could get ugly for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Eastern trends worrisome for mountains and foothills or just extending the snow line southeast? Not necessarily worrisome - we're still in position for a significant snowstorm. Just maybe not the foot we were looking at before. But the Euro has been the steadiest model so far and was a huge hit for us at 12z, and that has yet to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Through 48 it looks the same to me, hour 60 is the big map, waiting on it. Just going by the high-res P-type maps, the snow/sleet line looks further east. It's enough to keep GSO/CLT all-snow or very close to it, whereas it had serious mixing issues at 12z. It's like a 24-hour storm, too... Looks like Raleigh gets around six hours of heavy snow before flipping over to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM looks the same, exactly the same to me. HPC is going with the 12z UK ad 12z Euro ENS mean, which isn't good for us. We are 48 hours out, I feel like we will get 1-2" of snow, with several hours of sleet, it's 50/50 whether we flip to rain or not, won't know until tomorrow's 0z runs for sure. At least I will be in the office tomorrow so won't have time to horse around with these models, which is good if things trend west tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just going by the high-res P-type maps, it's further east, probably tracking through the Pamlico Sound. It's enough to keep GSO/CLT all-snow or very close to it, whereas it had serious mixing issues at 12z. It's like a 24-hour storm, too... Looks like Raleigh gets around six hours of heavy snow before flipping over to sleet. I thought it looked a hair east, but essentially it's the same, for RDU it was noise. Hopefully Euro get's back to hugging the coast tonight if it runs inland that will leave things very edgy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Like this look with the 996 slp off the coast. Would still like to see it a little deeper a little earlier. And a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Liking the slight eastward tick here... was really getting fidgety about sleet chances. It seems the models are looking to keep the westward push of the mid level warmth up to I-85 at the worst now. That should be around right with the low tracking just off shore. The placement of the 850 low is just about perfect for areas just NW of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just going by the high-res P-type maps, the snow/sleet line looks further east. It's enough to keep GSO/CLT all-snow or very close to it, whereas it had serious mixing issues at 12z. It's like a 24-hour storm, too... Looks like Raleigh gets around six hours of heavy snow before flipping over to sleet. How does about 14 hours of moderate to straight badass snow with about 1/2 an inch of IP tossed in the middle just to flip the NCDOT the bird grab you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If anyone can grab a GGEM snow clown map, very interested in seeing that with this long duration event depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Like this look with the 996 slp off the coast. Would still like to see it a little deeper a little earlier. And a little more east. [sNIPPED IMAGE] Wow, if I take the minimum of each precip panel of the UKMET, I get 1.1" QPF. If I take the maximum of each panel, I get 1.6" QPF. Since when did the UKMET become such a weenie model?! How does about 14 hours of moderate to straight badass snow with about 1/2 an inch of IP tossed in the middle just to flip the NCDOT the bird grab you? Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Alright. I'm out. Y'all have a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I thought it looked a hair east, but essentially it's the same, for RDU it was noise. Hopefully Euro get's back to hugging the coast tonight if it runs inland that will leave things very edgy tomorrow. Yea, it's really very very similar to the 12z. It's hard to tell much of a difference QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Liking the slight eastward tick here... was really getting fidgety about sleet chances. It seems the models are looking to keep the westward push of the mid level warmth up to I-85 at the worst now. That should be around right with the low tracking just off shore. The placement of the 850 low is just about perfect for areas just NW of 85. I think you are sitting pretty up in Mooresville for all snow. CLT is right on the line but hopeful heavy rates can overcome any slight warm nose and keep sleet at bay at least until the stint pulls away, leaving us with light sleet and freezing drizzle to cap everything off. Even with mixing it'll be a major storm here if things play out as modeled. A classic WNC winter storm that we've been needing these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB insists this is tracking inside Hatteras, that means, GFS/UK/CMC/NAM all will shift west over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB insists this is tracking inside Hatteras, that means, GFS/UK/CMC/NAM all will shift west over the next 48 hours. Or, and I just throw this out there, JB will shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB insists this is tracking inside Hatteras, that means, GFS/UK/CMC/NAM all will shift west over the next 48 hours. What is your take on the Euro being so consistent with this for the past several days along with its ensembles and the control run (which is even further west)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB insists this is tracking inside Hatteras, that means, GFS/UK/CMC/NAM all will shift west over the next 48 hours. Who is this JB fellow everyone is talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Who is this JB fellow everyone is talking about? Joe Bastardi. Probably the most polarizing personality in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably the most polarizing personality in weather. No. That would be Brick Tamland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Joe Bastardi. Probably the most polarizing personality in weather. he was great on wsjs radio in the mornings, I don't what happened to him, he diff. Changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 he was great on wsjs radio in the mornings, I don't what happened to him, he diff. Changed. He became politicized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What is your take on the Euro being so consistent with this for the past several days along with its ensembles and the control run (which is even further west)? I think it moves back east some, and not as deep, but definitely west of GFS. The CMC is phase happy usually and it's right over Hatteras, so is UK, think it gets to there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What is your take on the Euro being so consistent with this for the past several days along with its ensembles and the control run (which is even further west)? Ya hard to beat the Euro right know. Has been the most consistent model to this storm but hey it may come east a bit tonight who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For you guys further east, the Canadian drags a deformation band through RDU and E NC after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Canadian is insane for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How does about 14 hours of moderate to straight badass snow with about 1/2 an inch of IP tossed in the middle just to flip the NCDOT the bird grab you? That is straight up hilarious. Although I think NCDOT will be MIA when the crap starts hitting the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Canadian is insane for Raleigh. 8 inchs of snow/sleet and .4 freezing rain. lol that would catastrophic for the trees around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is there a possibility of Thundersnow with this system? Especially in the upstate of SC? There it is!! Pre-storm checklist complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.