HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ENS mean has following precip totals, crazy, it's really hard to get that much precip out of storm, find it hard to believe, would expect these to drop as we get closer, anything over an 1" QPF would be a lot. RDU - 1.8" GSO - 1.5" CLT - 1.6" Mt Airy - 1.2" HKY - 1.5" AVL - 1.6" It's just incredible a 51 member mean is that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I feel like i've been looking at this storm on the models for a month. Honestly (even though the solutions have changed drastically), I've never tracked a storm from this far out and it verify. Usually a 7 day threat totally disappears once inside day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's just incredible a 51 member mean is that high. A 51-member median would be more impressive to me. How about 50 zeros and one with 76.5 inches? I think that spits out the nice 1.5-inch mean too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok, so the NW energy is going to be sampled in the 0Zs. Any guesses as to what changes we might see, if any? My gut feeling is that it will be stronger than what the models were showing and we get more unification around a more west track. Maybe I'm just being cynical, but that solution doesn't seem unreasonable. Anyway, that's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm trying not go overboard with my expectations on this storm but its so hard not to. It looks like I might actually be in the jackpot zone for once. Just ready for this event to start already!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can it be understated enough that we've just had a top 5 record cold January, one snow/ice event and now another large winter event looming - all while living with awful indices? The PAC has been the godfather for the last 3 winters - in both good and bad ways. Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just a beautiful picture: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KGSO&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec And I said the 18z GFS was dry/weaker. We're going to get hammered, I think. I'm all-in for 6", aiming for closer to 12". I'll be satisfied with 6", though, and thrilled with 8"+ (haven't hit that mark since 2002!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok, so the NW energy is going to be sampled in the 0Zs. Any guesses as to what changes we might see, if any? My gut feeling is that it will be stronger than what the models were showing and we get more unification around a more west track. Maybe I'm just being cynical, but that solution doesn't seem unreasonable. Anyway, that's my guess. Your gut is wrong! We always use the excuse when models don't look the way we want, wait on sampling. It usually does little to the track we want, hopefully that will be the same this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok, so the NW energy is going to be sampled in the 0Zs. Any guesses as to what changes we might see, if any? My gut feeling is that it will be stronger than what the models were showing and we get more unification around a more west track. Maybe I'm just being cynical, but that solution doesn't seem unreasonable. Anyway, that's my guess. It goes from the storm of a lifetime down here to an apps runner with severe TStorms in SC/NC, Jim Cantore gets flooded out, crushs the mtns and then everywhere else including MA and NE big cities get your name.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The weenie in me says an east shift but it'll probably hold steady or shift west. I think that the late January system saw an east shift, but that was a whole different synoptic scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It goes from the storm of a lifetime down here to an apps runner with severe TStorms in SC/NC, Jim Cantore gets flooded out, crushs the mtns and then everywhere else including MA and NE big cities get your name.. Not going to happen with the CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm still saying tomorrow will be rain for mby! It's 43 and nearly 80 % humidity. We will not drop much or wet bulb tomorrow a m , unless the cold , dry air starts moving in quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Are we really arguing about WxBrad's snowfall map in the storm thread.just curious as to why Brad thinks Greensboro gets more snow than the mtns. What is his reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, I don't think it's a hillclimber, but it could go through the coastal plain if it amps enough. A stronger northern stream wave could do that. In the end, it might be much ado about nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Roberts first call map on Wxsouth looks flat out awesome for mby and some others on here! I think if he nails this then many will be very happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is what today looked like around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 just curious as to why Brad thinks Greensboro gets more snow than the mtns. What is his reasoning? You know your getting 12"+, sit back and enjoy, this is probably a 1 in 10-15 year storm. Check out Roberts map, just sick for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not going to happen with the CAD signature. Looking at current Wunderground temps in Central Canada/Great Lakes where the high is coming from it is awesome; as long as the high doesn't get kicked out we are in for a heck of a ride.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 just curious as to why Brad thinks Greensboro gets more snow than the mtns. What is his reasoning? It's his opinion, and it has happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We have had some very high QPF storms this fall and winter, finally got one to hook up with the cold!! I don't recall any big storm for NC that was over a 1" QPF? March 1993? And this ain't March 1993. Hopefully it does perform like models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't recall any big storm for NC that was over a 1" QPF? March 1993? And this ain't March 1993. Hopefully it does perform like models are showing. January 2000. Maybe January 2002. February 2004 almost certainly had 1"+ QPF over much of the southern Piedmont, too. I don't think we've had widespread 1"+ QPF totals since then, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, I don't think it's a hillclimber, but it could go through the coastal plain if it amps enough. A stronger northern stream wave could do that. In the end, it might be much ado about nothing. I think the UK and CMC will be telling, not even staying up for the Euro, if they tick NW we are done, if they hold we might be able to do 2-3" of snow with sleet/frzn. Not sure what to think of the GFS, it's GEFS mean is fairly close to the UK so that's not bad. UK was our best run today, need to repeat that, have a feeling we won't though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 January 2000. Maybe January 2002. February 2004 almost certainly had 1"+ QPF over much of the southern Piedmont, too. RDU was under 1" QPF, had high ratios, this is per weather underground stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't recall any big storm for NC that was over a 1" QPF? March 1993? And this ain't March 1993. Hopefully it does perform like models are showing. A little research would make you seem less clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm still saying tomorrow will be rain for mby! It's 43 and nearly 80 % humidity. We will not drop much or wet bulb tomorrow a m , unless the cold , dry air starts moving in quickWell, just a couple counties over it's down to 36 from 47 a few hours ago. It might rain tomorrow but it won't rain long. I don't see travel issues but, really, what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RDU was under 1" QPF, had high ratios, this is per weather underground stats. They must be wrong. RDU had close to 2" QPF, according to RAH's case study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 just curious as to why Brad thinks Greensboro gets more snow than the mtns. What is his reasoning?There is an overwhelming consensus for more Qpf this way. Mountains still get their share. The only thing IMO that will cause the totals just east of the mountains into the I 85 corridor to be less is sleet getting involved. When you get a rapidly deepening storm off the Carolina coast it can throw a heavy punch with its deformation band. It's usually long lived while waiting on the pivot. Watch a radar 24 hour loop of the jan 2000 event and you'll see what I mean. That's what will occur while 850s are crashing even more across NC from west to east thus washing out any warm layers that have crept in before hand in the mid layers of the atmosphere. You had 4 inch per hour rates when that happened Jan 2000. Not saying you'll get 4 inch per hr rates with this storm, but 2-3 will certainly take place when this death band sets up. Just hope I'm under it.Side note it's a killer being at work and not being able to stay logged on all day chasing or watching outside a window while it snowed 5 hrs straight. I hope this storm can really wreak havoc so I can stay home and enjoy it for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok, so the NW energy is going to be sampled in the 0Zs. Any guesses as to what changes we might see, if any? My gut feeling is that it will be stronger than what the models were showing and we get more unification around a more west track. Maybe I'm just being cynical, but that solution doesn't seem unreasonable. Anyway, that's my guess. it seems to me that northern energy has verified stronger but further north when we get to an event as a general consensus upon models. Anymore know if that has any merit? i'm just going off memory and wondering if anyone has any data to back it up, or at least the memory of this occurring as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Roberts first call map on Wxsouth looks flat out awesome for mby and some others on here! I think if he nails this then many will be very happy! If if I was Robert, I would never post on Facebook again. OMG... the comments are beyond stupid. He probably longs for the days of the weenies on here. Wilkes looks like Paul Kocin in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Roberts first call map on Wxsouth looks flat out awesome for mby and some others on here! I think if he nails this then many will be very happy! I just paid for a membership but still can't access any of the premium content. Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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