packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pack, how's the new SREF look for track/temps? Or just hit me with the best link for it, and I'll go look. Here you go, I think the SREF's are pretty useless outside 36 hours, remember the last storm when it was showing us with a mean's of 6-9" of snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I told my sister to change my niece's flight from ATL to NYC from her original wed night reservation thinking the ATL airport could be closed then. My sis and I are trying to decide between changing it to either tonight, 6AM, or 9AM. They live in Buckhead. Do people here think the airport will be open at 6-9 am tomorrow? Would 6 am be better than 9 AM? Opinions appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We're getting off on banter here, but models are not for the general public. Yes, this entire thread tangent is banter. The models might not be for the public in your opinion (or mine), but the minute somebody decided to make a buck by selling access to anyone who wanted access, they became a product for the public. There is no longer any guarantee that the person staring at the model has the education to understand it. That ship has long sailed. This afternoon's Euro snow clown map is saturating the internet like a zombie plague. People actually believe it. On top of the Ga Gov's press conference at lunchtime, the declared State of Emergency, and some of the local media mets using words like "historic storm", the public is worked up into a bit of a frenzy right now. Although I suppose, if it gets them to buy their milk and bread and go home and STAY there until the storm has passed, it will have served a purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You live near Belmont? Better get to Twin Tops fishcamp tonight! They might be closed till Saturday! I grew up in Cramerton Awesome brother! You probably know my sister. She lives in Cramerton. My mother lives there now as well. Small world! Take care! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 FFC added a couple more counties to the WSWarning. Includes all counties from Cedartown to Gainesville to Elberton and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I told my sister to change my niece's flight from ATL to NYC from her original wed night reservation thinking the ATL airport could be closed then. My sis and I are trying to decide between changing it to either tonight, 6AM, or 9AM. They live in Buckhead. Do people here think the airport will be open at 6-9 am tomorrow? Would 6 am be better than 9 AM? Opinions appreciated! I would put money on the airport running normal for at least the first half of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes, this entire thread tangent is banter. The models might not be for the public in your opinion (or mine), but the minute somebody decided to make a buck by selling access to anyone who wanted access, they became a product for the public. There is no longer any guarantee that the person staring at the model has the education to understand it. That ship has long sailed. This afternoon's Euro snow clown map is saturating the internet like a zombie plague. People actually believe it. On top of the Ga Gov's press conference at lunchtime, the declared State of Emergency, and some of the local media mets using words like "historic storm", the public is worked up into a bit of a frenzy right now. Although I suppose, if it gets them to buy their milk and bread and go home and STAY there until the storm has passed, it will have served a purpose. Ok, agree with you on some points, but are you saying this is all for naught?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For tomorrow the SREF's do get 0.1"-0.25" precip line to RDU. CLT is in the 0.25-0.5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is looking more and more like the potential to surpass what I experienced during the Presidents Day Weekend storms up in VA back in 78 or 79.. This would be freaking awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ga Snohound Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Agreed. Honestly, if you read (and when I say this I mean from laymen "joe public point of view") you would quickly dismiss this whole thing as a cpl inches of snow perhaps a little zr for Atl area. I think the problem is that those folks (ffc) have no idea how much more detailed info is being made available to public this the need for them to take the lead in delivering a more concise forecast (for better or worse). This is exactly why folks in Atl are ambivalent at times to potential threats. I realize this is a complex set up but avg folks don't know or care. They just wanna know "should I plan to stay home w plenty of groceries etc". FFC does not deliver that message here. Before the flaming starts, I realize we're all responsible for listening, discovering etc but our local media does nothing more than spew whatever ffc says period. End of rant......My apologies if I offended or am off topic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes, this entire thread tangent is banter. The models might not be for the public in your opinion (or mine), but the minute somebody decided to make a buck by selling access to anyone who wanted access, they became a product for the public. There is no longer any guarantee that the person staring at the model has the education to understand it. That ship has long sailed. This afternoon's Euro snow clown map is saturating the internet like a zombie plague. People actually believe it. On top of the Ga Gov's press conference at lunchtime, the declared State of Emergency, and some of the local media mets using words like "historic storm", the public is worked up into a bit of a frenzy right now. Although I suppose, if it gets them to buy their milk and bread and go home and STAY there until the storm has passed, it will have served a purpose. A "bit" of a frenzy is an understatement. People are acting like this is the end of the world ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is there some sort of rule about forecast offices being too close together? You would think they would be located in major population centers, i.e. in Charlotte rather than GSP and maybe you could put one in GSO/Winston as well as Raleigh. Right now it seems cumbersome to have so much mixing of zones across state lines. RAH doesn't have a problem, they just give us the ole once over. Did you read the discussion? They were like umm, I think it's going to snow in the Triad then went into 1000 words about the triangle and points south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I told my sister to change my niece's flight from ATL to NYC from her original wed night reservation thinking the ATL airport could be closed then. My sis and I are trying to decide between changing it to either tonight, 6AM, or 9AM. They live in Buckhead. Do people here think the airport will be open at 6-9 am tomorrow? Would 6 am be better than 9 AM? Opinions appreciated! 6am Safer than sorry. Honestly that 1st wave should be affecting ATL area by midday noonish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RAH doesn't have a problem, they just give us the ole once over. Did you read the discussion? They were like umm, I think it's going to snow in the Triad then went into 1000 words about the triangle and points south and east. That's what I'm saying. The Triad is being overlooked. Hate to go all max100 and bash the NWS of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here you go, I think the SREF's are pretty useless outside 36 hours, remember the last storm when it was showing us with a mean's of 6-9" of snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER Thanks man. Just looking at trends. Track seems pretty consistent with the last couple of runs. We get that track, we probably stay all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weather channel has taken heavy snow completely away from WNC..... What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For tomorrow the SREF's do get 0.1"-0.25" precip line to RDU. CLT is in the 0.25-0.5" range. wow that would be a nice little thump for round 1, I had basically written it completely off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This isn't the end of the world, but an unprepared southern region facing .5-1.25" of freezing rain and a couple inches of snow is going to act like it's armageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow that would be a nice little thump for round 1, I had basically written it completely off Don't fall for the SREF trap! Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RAH doesn't have a problem, they just give us the ole once over. Did you read the discussion? They were like umm, I think it's going to snow in the Triad then went into 1000 words about the triangle and points south and east. I LOL'd while reading their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm really interested in seeing where the Euro Op is in relation to it's ensemble mean, as far as the track goes. I hope somebody will comment on that when it's available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weather channel has taken heavy snow completely away from WNC..... What gives? Its the weather channel. they said a inch at most for Mooresville. it's almost laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's what I'm saying. The Triad is being overlooked. Hate to go all max100 and bash the NWS of course. I disagree. The Triad is expected to have almost all snow. Once you say that, what else if there to say except amounts. Further East the jury is still out and there are a lot of possibilities still on the table. So, they discuss them. I don't see a problem here. Now radar coverage is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Maybe you should consider not being a whining little b**** all of the time. There is literally a rain cloud that follows you everywhere Whoa! Ouch Anyway, hard to not get excited by the Euro snow map even though that is obviously way too much snow, but fun to look at anyway. This really has the potential to be epic in this part of north Georgia. I can't wait to see the post-mortem and how the models leading up verify. I'm pretty pumped.........looks like from a metro Atlanta perspective, Steve, Chris and I are really in the sweet spot (I guess Chris is more around Athens than Atlanta). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weather channel has taken heavy snow completely away from WNC..... What gives? I've said it before and I'll say it again: getting your weather info from TWC is like getting your investment advice from People Magazine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think Raleigh is definitely still in the game. I don't know much about the area but according to HPC the inland track ain't happening. I think that keeps Raleigh in the ballpark. But yeah, the track and the CAD have 85 special written all over it. Just got to crash those boards!! er I mean 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ENS shifted east of the Op, still west of the UK, which is below. This would be a good track for RDU, right over Hatteras. The Euro ENS mean is probably 25-50 miles west of UK, so not to far west. Also, the UK track matches up well with the GEFS. The GFS OP was probably 50 miles east of the UK/GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weather channel has taken heavy snow completely away from WNC..... What gives? Huh? They've been showing the largest amounts form WNC all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I disagree. The Triad is expected to have almost all snow. Once you say that, what else if there to say except amounts. Further East the jury is still out and there are a lot of possibilities still on the table. So, they discuss them. I don't see a problem here. Now radar coverage is something else. Now you know that they gave very little attention to what could happen in the Triad. Though likely, it's not an absolute given that we'll cash in on the Big One. And if it's a done deal, why aren't we under a watch? I'd appreciate a little more than a wink from RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I disagree. The Triad is expected to have almost all snow. Once you say that, what else if there to say except amounts. Further East the jury is still out and there are a lot of possibilities still on the table. So, they discuss them. I don't see a problem here. Now radar coverage is something else. You know what, I actually had this thought after I hit send. It is more straightforward in the Triad and I would hate to be a forecaster for the Triangle right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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