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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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How did that stack up against last night's run?

Same, last night we were closer to all frozen, today it's not even close, Euro has been trending this way, other models will catch up tonight/tomorrow. This is exactly like Dec 2009. Widre was right, I wasn't as gloomy as him, but he called it, bunch of rain, LOL

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We have to get used to it, I said this last week. It's going to be years for see a good snow, 4"+, we will continually have winter storms miss us NSEW. Literally every city around is will atleast 120% of climo the past 5 years and we will be 50%.

I saw that and I chose to delete it from my memory :). It's completely bizarre too. While I am happy for everyone who is getting snow this one in particular stings. If the Triad and Charlotte were only getting 1-3" and we were getting a cold rain then no big deal. The fact that they could be getting a foot or more of snow while we get a cold rain is downright cruel. Yes, I am having a pity party so forgive me.

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Once the precip shield went from w to east to sw to ne it was threading the needle... unless a miracle happens and we get a 100 shift to the east.. which the nws thinks it will be offshore its will be hard to tell untill the actual low forms off the se coast.. 95 looks like the rain snow line as of the past couple runs...

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Thanks for the responses guys! I want to get crushed! So is there still a 2-3 accum tomorrow before the big dog? Seriously, I'm like a 5 year old on Christmas Eve !! The biggest snow I've ever been in was 14 inches, I'm not expecting that , but looking for my #2

:lol:  you are sitting pretty 

 

btw....someone please tell me the 12z gfs was wrong giving mby 2.09" of ice  :(  

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Take heed RDU folks, I really think (and I see some of the folks far more skilled at this than I agree) that this inland run is going to be a non starter.  I really think is going to push west a touch....say 25 miles or so.  And I'm saying that with the caveat that right where it is at the moment pretty much bulleyes us here in Burlington, with the transition line close enoughthat rates will be sick.  IMO, I think all of us will end up great, with Chapel Hill getting smoked right on the transition line and RDU cashing in on mostly snow/ip.

 

 

Just my opinion right now. 

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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MID-WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THE EXACT P-TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAIN AT LOWER CONFIDENCE... BUT ARE INCREASING WITH TIME. CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING IS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE MAIN INGREDIENTS THAT IS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING EVENT. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SEPARATELY FOR THIS MAIN EVENT RUNNING FROM 1200 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 600 PM THURSDAY. A STRONG PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN AND OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND FAVORABLE POSITION TO DELIVER MORE THAN ADEQUATE CAA BEFORE AND DURING THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. NOTE THE DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS/OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENT LATE WED AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE DAMMING REGION. ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT COLD NOSE IS ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET PEAKING WED AND WED NIGHT. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STORM TRACK. HOWEVER... A CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY... NORTHEAST ALONG THE SC/NC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS PREFERRED IN COORDINATION WITH WPC PREFERENCES. COMBINED WITH THE CLASSICAL DAMMING EXPECTED... THIS STORM TRACK IS A PREFERRED ONE THAT CAN DELIVER CRIPPLING WINTER STORMS TO CENTRAL NC. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION. MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR STORM TOTALS OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TRIES TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AROUND ALBEMARLE AND WADESBORO NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN PINES... RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS... THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR SNOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING... TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AFTER THE CHANGE OVER LATE WEDNESDAY. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE... CLINTON AND GOLDSBORO... EXPECT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE BY AROUND LATE MORNING OR NOON WEDNESDAY... THEN FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO RISE ABOVE 32 WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FREEZING RAIN MAY CREATE ICING TO BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FROM THERE... TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH STEADY TEMPS IN THE HEART OF THE DAMMING REGION. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE CLOSE TO 32 IN THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY... THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW DURING THE DAY. THIS OCCURS AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS TO THE NE OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IN THE SE... THE DRY SLOT SHOULD END MOST PRECIP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 35 NW TO 45 SE. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND... THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE EARLY EVOLUTION STAGES. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES AND THERE WILL BE SOME. HOWEVER... REMEMBER THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WED-THU. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PRECIPIATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS... IN THE END ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT CRIPPLING WINTER STORM. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
 

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You won't often get your feelings hurt by discounting extreme totals like that.

Indeed  :lol:  I'm used to watching the qpf decrease as we move closer to an event, but so far.....that hasn't happened yet.

 

I do believe someone close to mby will get close to the 1" mark if any of this is close to verifying.  ;) 

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:lol:  you are sitting pretty 

 

btw....someone please tell me the 12z gfs was wrong giving mby 2.09" of ice   :(

 

 

Its hard not to ignore the signals but if this is going to be a typical miller a I don't see alot of zr with it. Maybe sleet out the ying yang but not a 1.75"-2" slab of ice.

 

 

 

On a side note if this does really bomb out and maybe what JMA and NAM was trying to show is something similar to this but maybe 75miles further to the west.

 

accum.20000125.gif

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This is for Burger, JWow, Jeremy...what do any of you think about the chances for our area with snow vs sleet, based on the 12Z EURO? I personally feel the wedge will be colder aloft and we will see more snow. I notice that Belmont (Gaston County) is on the line to switch back and forth, however, this seems like a good spot to be, for better rates? Any thoughts would be much appreciated. With this setup, I am banking on a once in a 10-20 year snowstorm (hoping for lack of better words...)

Thanks in advance guys!

 

Jason 

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ok this is pretty fun now.  i have been excited about the storm.  gov had a press conference and now is mass panic lol.  stores (we have two grocery stores) are over flowing, people are driving like its the end of the world haha.  should be interesting.  esp if we wake up and the storm has disappeared lmao

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This is for Burger, JWow, Jeremy...what do any of you think about the chances for our area with snow vs sleet, based on the 12Z EURO? I personally feel the wedge will be colder aloft and we will see more snow. I notice that Belmont (Gaston County) is on the line to switch back and forth, however, this seems like a good spot to be, for better rates? Any thoughts would be much appreciated. With this setup, I am banking on a once in a 10-20 year snowstorm (hoping for lack of better words...)

Thanks in advance guys!

Jason

You live near Belmont? Better get to Twin Tops fishcamp tonight! They might be closed till Saturday! I grew up in Cramerton
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