superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 first time I've ever seen him forecast such high totals. Yeah, me, too. I'm still nervous as hell about mixing out this way, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Alright, which one of you jamokes has the latest GSP snow totals map? I'm asking for a friend.... FYI these are available at http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief_winter Alright, which one of you jamokes has the latest GSP snow totals map? I'm asking for a friend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 LOL, they were pretty good, colder than the CMC, would be more snowy for us. Let's face it, Euro has been leading the way with this and it had a lot of rain for RDU verbatim last night, that's the only model I care about 60-72 hours out. Thanks pack...I don't have access and didn't hear much about it. Good to hear it's snowier for us. I think it's a good thing to have the Ukie on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Interesting from HPC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THE TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD...AND WE AGREED TO THE NIGHT SHIFT FAVORING A TRACK A LITTLE WAYS OFFSHORE BY 14/00Z. WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF PROBABLY HAD CORRECT...THOUGH...WAS THE TREND TOWARD A SLOWER MIGRATION OF THE LOW UP THE COAST. THIS IS EVIDENT IN A SUBSTANTIAL SLOWING OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE 500 MB SPAGHETTI PLOTS OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTED THIS TREND...AND THE 12Z NAM/GFS FELL BETTER IN LINE WITH THE MEANS COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD COME ASHORE THIS MORNING...SO THE 12Z MODELS ARE LIKELY HANDLING IT WELL. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. That's very good news for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Haha, Pack's getting back in. Dude, come on. Make the jump. Raleighwx just destroyed us. It will be interesting to see what impact the northern stream wave has on the evolution of the storm, when it comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Allan just put me in 8-12"!!! You suck! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CMC for RDU, sleet fest…verbatim that would 3-4" of snow, with 1.5" of sleet and 0.25" of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope WPC is correct about favoring a blend of the NAM and GFS. That would be an epic snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You suck! Enjoy! Hah, I'm still nervous about the sleet! Don't worry, though. Eventually, another eastern Piedmont special will come and you guys will get pounded while we in the west will be fringed. Great SnowTV continues to go on out my window. Beautiful snow. On the other hand, it's kind of sad how hard it can snow without sticking to anything whenever it's 35 degrees at noon in February. It looks like it's finally starting to stick to the grill, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy smokes, look at ATL, nightmare if this is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We just cannot get under a decent band here. Still juuuuust squeaking by to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hah, I'm still nervous about the sleet! Don't worry, though. Eventually, another eastern Piedmont special will come and you guys will get pounded while we in the west will be fringed. Great SnowTV continues to go on out my window. Beautiful snow. On the other hand, it's kind of sad how hard it can snow without sticking to anything whenever it's 35 degrees at noon in February. It looks like it's finally starting to stick to the grill, LOL. That dam February sun angle is a killer! LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hah, I'm still nervous about the sleet! Don't worry, though. Eventually, another eastern Piedmont special will come and you guys will get pounded while we in the west will be fringed. Great SnowTV continues to go on out my window. Beautiful snow. On the other hand, it's kind of sad how hard it can snow without sticking to anything whenever it's 35 degrees at noon in February. It looks like it's finally starting to stick to the grill, LOL. No it won't, but thanks for hoping. You will probably mix some, but 8-10" with a say 0.5" of sleet would be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We just cannot get under a decent band here. Still juuuuust squeaking by to the north. LOL, this band today is north of us, tomorrows band will be south of us. You literally can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No it won't, but thanks for hoping. You will probably mix some, but 8-10" with a say 0.5" of sleet would be crazy. Hey now, January 2009 could happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 LOL, this band today is north of us, tomorrows band will be south of us. You literally can't make this stuff up. Don't forget Wednesday will be west of us... I kid...I kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 LOL, this band today is north of us, tomorrows band will be south of us. You literally can't make this stuff up. I'm sorry to see RDU get shafted, relatively speaking. The Christmas storm shafted Orange and Alamance because the overrunning didn't actually get to us and the coastal didn't throw that much precip back west. These things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the Euro track drops more easterly this afternoon, this place will erupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The JMA just destroyed somebody, but I couldn't tell who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hey now, January 2009 could happen again. You cruised on by us with March 2009, Dec 2009, Jan 2010, Feb 2010, March 2010, Feb 2012, Jan 2013 which leads us up to Feb 2014, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the Euro track drops more easterly this afternoon, this place will erupt. I will erupt. VEI 7 at least, maybe more, depending on how far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The JMA just destroyed somebody, but I couldn't tell who.Waycross? Nah, it's already destroyed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I will erupt. VEI 7 at least, maybe more, depending on how far east. Euro will hold or tick slightly NW, it's been the clear leader on this storm, every model should bow to it. The JMA is just sick for CLT/GSO/INT probably 2ft+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro must be off. Board is crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcclt Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Have a feeling MBY in the southern tip of Cabarrus county will get 2-3 inches while 30 miles west will get bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The JMA just destroyed somebody, but I couldn't tell who. Yeah, I think it might have dropped like 20-30" here or something. You cruised on by us with March 2009, Dec 2009, Jan 2010, Feb 2010, March 2010, Feb 2012, Jan 2013 which leads us up to Feb 2014, LOL. Yes, it hasn't been a good run for RDU lately... GSO is still below average over the last five years, too, which makes it even worse for you guys. It will eventually average out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro will hold or tick slightly NW, it's been the clear leader on this storm, every model should bow to it. The JMA is just sick for CLT/GSO/INT probably 2ft+. Looks like we get a bunch of something. Can you tell what it is? Doesn't look like snow, that's fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Despite my post being the first in this thread there are still very few mentions (if any at all) about Fayetteville. All the probability maps etc put us in like 30% of 2" sn or more and 40% 0.25" ice or more...soooo what are we, rain here? I'd rather here it from y'all than the super conservative NWS or TWC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RDU had to pay a big price for Jan 25, 200? I've lived in Greensboro for 40 years and only measured 10"+ back in the late 70's in mid/late February. I think while I was in college in Chapel Hill GSO got 10" while RDU got squat. Regardless, I'd like to get 12+ before I die. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like we get a bunch of something. Can you tell what it is? Doesn't look like snow, that's fo sho. Won't matter, Euro looks NW, I am out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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