Bevo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks west. Shocking. Change that Yellow Alert for crying out loud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow saucers, check. Flexible flier from the 60's, check, Generator, check, Gas, check, 4wheel drive, check. Snow food, check (except for condensed milk, pending.) Snow, - waiting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks west. Shocking.If this shifts west, will it benefit the upstate and wnc with more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The extent of my prep so far has been purchasing 10 cans of Chef Boyardee and a small can opener. Doubt the dining hall will be open and my car is so low it would just plow snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Alright, which one of you jamokes has the latest GSP snow totals map? I'm asking for a friend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Change that Yellow Alert for crying out loud! For you, and based solely on this output from the GFS, it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For you, and based solely on this output from the GFS, it's done. OMG that would be amazing. OMG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Woe to anyone needing to get groceries. Thought I might sneak out at lunch and grab a few things. A usually very quiet Publix is completely packed. At 11:30 AM on a Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's snowing here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The cmc looks to switch RDU to rain right around hr 63. This is after some nasty zr but a lot of the qpf appears to be rain. Maybe a trace of sn at the very beginning of the storm. Edit: I don't have access to any soundings for the cmc so this is just zoomed into the SE. It sure does, might save our power from going out. You can turn the light out for this one on us, the CMC has trended less snow to more rainy over the last few runs for us, , LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If this shifts west, will it benefit the upstate and wnc with more snow? It would bring a greater risk of mixing issues. We want phasing and track farther east, enough to get me sleet and you heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wxii just put up a map predicting 11.4 inches for the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 -sn finally atleast a couple hours of snow before being skipped tomorrow. Then the lil puppy wednesday/thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For you, and based solely on this output from the GFS, it's done. I love the soundings for the 12z gfs. I'm hoping we trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It would bring a greater risk of mixing issues. We want phasing and track farther east, enough to get me sleet and you heavy snow. It's never promising when we have to rely on the GFS to save the day for us, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It sure does, might save our power from going out. You can turn the light out for this one on us, the CMC has trended less snow to more rainy over the last few runs for us, , LOL I take it you're not going all in, then? The snow just turned to rain here. Hahaha! And I will bet you right now the Euro ticks, trends, toggles, whatever west on the 12. Argh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That is a LOT of ice.....cae will be shut down for days..... Man I hope you get spared the dreaded ice Michelle. At least keep your power! It wouldn't be the same without you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It would bring a greater risk of mixing issues. We want phasing and track farther east, enough to get me sleet and you heavy snow.Thanks! I'm really glad it rained today or we would have torched! It's 47 and raining. If we had full sun it would be mid 50s. I really hope the cold air hurries up tonight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I take it you're not going all in, then? The snow just turned to rain here. Hahaha! And I will bet you right now the Euro ticks, trends, toggles, whatever west on the 12. Argh. Ummm, nope, I am out, going to watch this trend more NW and warmer just like Dec 2009, we will see some snow showers for an hour or so and then flip to rain, maybe we will get dry slotted with the rain like in Dec 2009, that would be so awesome. We will be in the 50's this Friday through the weekend and than late next week we will be in the 60-70F's. I can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Packbacker, Cold Rain...Have y'all heard anything about the Ukie for our area. I haven't seen anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Packbacker, Cold Rain...Have y'all heard anything about the Ukie for our area. I haven't seen anything. It looked similar to the 0z to me, but I couldn't really tell from the ewall maps. Pack would probably have told us if they weren't worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's snowing pretty hard right now. Cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It sure does, might save our power from going out. You can turn the light out for this one on us, the CMC has trended less snow to more rainy over the last few runs for us, , LOL And the NAM and GFS went more east, and showed more snow and less ice than previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That is a LOT of ice.....cae will be shut down for days..... Man I hope you get spared the dreaded ice Michelle. At least keep your power! It wouldn't be the same without you! Thanks oconeexman Wood is split and stacked in the living room, groceries purchased(need more chocolate though), full tank of gas in both vehicles, candles/batteries/salt/charcoal stocked up already, bird feeder full, house is clean, laundry done.....now I am counting down the hours until the show begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It looked similar to the 0z to me, but I couldn't really tell from the ewall maps. Pack would probably have told us if they weren't worse. LOL, they were pretty good, colder than the CMC, would be more snowy for us. Let's face it, Euro has been leading the way with this and it had a lot of rain for RDU verbatim last night, that's the only model I care about 60-72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Interesting from HPC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFSON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS INALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLYALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURETHEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKSTO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BYTHURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OFTHE TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ON THE WESTAND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD...AND WE AGREED TO THENIGHT SHIFT FAVORING A TRACK A LITTLE WAYS OFFSHORE BY 14/00Z.WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF PROBABLY HAD CORRECT...THOUGH...WAS THE TRENDTOWARD A SLOWER MIGRATION OF THE LOW UP THE COAST. THIS IS EVIDENTIN A SUBSTANTIAL SLOWING OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE 500 MBSPAGHETTI PLOTS OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES. THE 06Z GEFS MEANSUPPORTED THIS TREND...AND THE 12Z NAM/GFS FELL BETTER IN LINEWITH THE MEANS COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS.A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD COME ASHORE THIS MORNING...SO THE12Z MODELS ARE LIKELY HANDLING IT WELL. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERNSTREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE...SO SOME MARKED TRENDSMAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENTWITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOMECONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How much for my back yard for wave one tomorrow? There hasn't been much focus on it lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Allan just put me in 8-12"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow, good news from the HPC. In their mind the EURO inland track was an outlier. More frozen for us. Plus a slower system means more precip I suppose. With the wedging so strong, I would figure the low would be off the coast as well. Makes sense. I would be surprised if the EURO does't tick it back to the coast in the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Allan just put me in 8-12"!!! first time I've ever seen him forecast such high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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