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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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The cmc looks to switch RDU to rain right around hr 63.  This is after some nasty zr but a lot of the qpf appears to be rain.  Maybe a trace of sn at the very beginning of the storm.

 

Edit: I don't have access to any soundings for the cmc so this is just zoomed into the SE.

 

It sure does, might save our power from going out.  You can turn the light out for this one on us, the CMC has trended less snow to more rainy over the last few runs for us,  :underthewx: , LOL

 

I_nw_g1_EST_2014021012_063.png

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It sure does, might save our power from going out. You can turn the light out for this one on us, the CMC has trended less snow to more rainy over the last few runs for us, :underthewx: , LOL

I take it you're not going all in, then?

The snow just turned to rain here. Hahaha!

And I will bet you right now the Euro ticks, trends, toggles, whatever west on the 12. Argh.

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It would bring a greater risk of mixing issues. We want phasing and track farther east, enough to get me sleet and you heavy snow.

Thanks! I'm really glad it rained today or we would have torched! It's 47 and raining. If we had full sun it would be mid 50s. I really hope the cold air hurries up tonight!!
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I take it you're not going all in, then?

The snow just turned to rain here. Hahaha!

And I will bet you right now the Euro ticks, trends, toggles, whatever west on the 12. Argh.

 

Ummm, nope, I am out, going to watch this trend more NW and warmer just like Dec 2009, we will see some snow showers for an hour or so and then flip to rain, maybe we will get dry slotted with the rain like in Dec 2009, that would be so awesome.  We will be in the 50's this Friday through the weekend and than late next week we will be in the 60-70F's.  I can't wait  :sizzle:

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That is a LOT of ice.....cae will be shut down for days..... :(:yikes:

Man I hope you get spared the dreaded ice Michelle. At least keep your power! It wouldn't be the same without you!

Thanks oconeexman  :hug:   Wood is split and stacked in the living room, groceries purchased(need more chocolate though), full tank of gas in both vehicles, candles/batteries/salt/charcoal stocked up already, bird feeder full, house is clean, laundry done.....now I am counting down the hours until the show begins  :lol:   

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It looked similar to the 0z to me, but I couldn't really tell from the ewall maps. Pack would probably have told us if they weren't worse. :(

LOL, they were pretty good, colder than the CMC, would be more snowy for us.  Let's face it, Euro has been leading the way with this and it had a lot of rain for RDU verbatim last night, that's the only model I care about 60-72 hours out.

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Interesting from HPC...

 

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS

ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN
ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY
ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF
THE TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ON THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD...AND WE AGREED TO THE
NIGHT SHIFT FAVORING A TRACK A LITTLE WAYS OFFSHORE BY 14/00Z.
WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF PROBABLY HAD CORRECT...THOUGH...WAS THE TREND
TOWARD A SLOWER MIGRATION OF THE LOW UP THE COAST. THIS IS EVIDENT
IN A SUBSTANTIAL SLOWING OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE 500 MB
SPAGHETTI PLOTS OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTED THIS TREND...AND THE 12Z NAM/GFS FELL BETTER IN LINE
WITH THE MEANS COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS.

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD COME ASHORE THIS MORNING...SO THE
12Z MODELS ARE LIKELY HANDLING IT WELL. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS
MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME
CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM.

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Wow, good news from the HPC.  In their mind the EURO inland track was an outlier.  More frozen for us.  Plus a slower system means more precip I suppose.  With the wedging so strong, I would figure the low would be off the coast as well.  Makes sense.  I would be surprised if the EURO does't tick it back to the coast in the next run.

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