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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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12z NAM gives us a little over an inch of freezing rain over here by KJNX between Clayton and Smithfield....  do not like. At all.

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kjnx.txt

57 02/12 21Z   30     22      47      16    0.03  0.00    541    560    1.2 -18.6 1023 100 -PL   044OVC349    0.0   15.0  60 02/13 00Z   29     28      29      15    0.14  0.00    542    560    1.3 -18.1 1021 100 FZRN  000OVC341    0.5    1.5  63 02/13 03Z   30     29      24      17    0.31  0.00    545    560    4.5 -18.8 1018 100 FZRN  002OVC349    0.0    1.3  66 02/13 06Z   30     30      17      19    0.31  0.00    547    556    3.6 -18.5 1012 100 FZRN  003OVC258    0.0    1.2  69 02/13 09Z   30     29       8      19    0.16  0.00    546    552    5.3 -19.9 1007 100 -FZRN 002OVC209    0.0    1.8  72 02/13 12Z   30     28     334      14    0.08  0.00    541    546    2.3 -22.5 1006 100 -FZRN 002OVC182    0.0    1.9  75 02/13 15Z   30     29     325      17    0.06  0.00    539    545   -2.0 -22.6 1007 100 -FZRN 002OVC074    0.2    2.4  78 02/13 18Z   33     32     314      16    0.09  0.00    538    544   -1.1 -21.6 1007 100 -SN   002OVC104    0.5    1.4

Interestingly, it's not showing anything at all for tomorrow

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Don't feel bad...I am totally uncomfortable with how close I am to the snow/other stuff line.  I would be really worried if I were in Raleigh.

 

Yeah, it has become a tightrope here. Not too happy about a ton of zr. I'd just like to get a few inches of snow and then whatever happens can happen. Not looking great for that, though.

I wonder what the unsampled energy that Phil mentioned would do for the track. Bigger risk to the east or west?

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Yeah, it has become a tightrope here. Not too happy about a ton of zr. I'd just like to get a few inches of snow and then whatever happens can happen. Not looking great for that, though.

I wonder what the unsampled energy that Phil mentioned would do for the track. Bigger risk to the east or west?

 

Looking at the gfs we do get some light snow starting on Tuesday afternoon.  The heaviest precip appears to be between the hours of 60 and 66 and it looks like ip/zr during that time.  At hour 60 we only have the 800 mb layer above freezing and that is 0.1.  Then at hr 66 we have 3 layers above freezing.  900 is 0.3...850 is 0.7...800 is 0.3.

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Now this man is much braver than I am. 

I know thats right. Considering most are the same... there will be 300 people working and 4 or 5 registers actually open. 30 mins to get what ya need then another 30 mins standing in line waiting to get out.

 

I like how the nws has snow and........ in my forecast and then it goes to rain and rain... sounds like they are still not sure either

 

Being at the coastal region like you are... 90% of the storm will likely be rain.

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Looking at the gfs we do get some light snow starting on Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest precip appears to be between the hours of 60 and 66 and it looks like ip/zr during that time. At hour 60 we only have the 800 mb layer above freezing and that is 0.1. Then at hr 66 we have 3 layers above freezing. 900 is 0.3...850 is 0.7...800 is 0.3.

Thanks man. Appreciate the details.

I can't tell from the coarse maps if the UK is farther east or west from the 0z run. Looks close to the same to me.

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Good think you don't live down here and have to go to the Walmart in Cumming, my wife and her friends tried to buy them out last night; heard they had to do a special order for restocking..

Made it out alive! The one thing I noticed, and thought was funny , was that the ice cream section was obliterated!!! They had like 2 gallons left and they were sugar free! Think we will have all the snow and ice we can handle
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The cmc looks to switch RDU to rain right around hr 63.  This is after some nasty zr but a lot of the qpf appears to be rain.  Maybe a trace of sn at the very beginning of the storm.

 

Edit: I don't have access to any soundings for the cmc so this is just zoomed into the SE.

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Made it out alive! The one thing I noticed, and thought was funny , was that the ice cream section was obliterated!!! They had like 2 gallons left and they were sugar free! Think we will have all the snow and ice we can handle

 

Rats, forgot to tell my wife to get Carnation sweetened condensed milk; that makes awesome snowcream!!

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The cmc looks to switch RDU to rain right around hr 63. This is after some nasty zr but a lot of the qpf appears to be rain. Maybe a trace of sn at the very beginning of the storm.

Edit: I don't have access to any soundings for the cmc so this is just zoomed into the SE.

Looks west. Shocking.

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