Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any mercy flakes here in the Triangle? It looks like the 850s crash as the precip is moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Futurecast from Brad P just released: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm slowly becoming more optimist that I'll see 6" to 8" of snow before this is finished. This just might work out for the Triad. Finally. [fingers crossed] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who said I wished for one? It will happen....period....nothing I can do about it other than enjoy the ride. btw....you do realize everyone who is getting a lot of heavy wet snow will experience the same power outages that I will be experiencing right? Yep a heavy wet snow is just as bad as ice especially if the rates are high. The Jan 2000 snowstorm was 12 inches of wet snow and we went 4 days without power here from it. The March 2009 snowstorm was hard on power and trees too but thankfully that stayed just too my north. Hopefully somehow the snow will be fluffy and the areas that don't get snow, end up with sleet instead of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The cutoff on the NAM is insane...going to be some sad people somewhere in the triangle. As posted in the other thread: http://i.imgur.com/JI3oIIB.gif Nam looks to have the 6+ line now just east of Raleigh. Of course this is not all snow, a good amount would be ice. Important thing is the surface freezing line is pushed east with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Since it's a Charlotte/Triad/NGa lovefest on the main thread what do the RDU members think about this storm going east?It seems like these storms always go NW so is there even a chance it could go east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As posted in the other thread: http://i.imgur.com/JI3oIIB.gif Nam looks to have the 6+ line now just east of Raleigh. Of course this is not all snow, a good amount would be ice. Important thing is the surface freezing line is pushed east with this run. I thought I saw someone say that would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Somebody just got NAMed!!! Winter cancel all rain..... Ummmm good call metallix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM saves the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like that attitude, Buckeye!! Embrace the ice!! Well, I've been in several doozies before, and it was quite the ride. I believe it's a little harsh to call people who enjoy ice storms, "foolish." We have differences of opinion. People somehow managed to scrape by and live (nay, even thrive) without power for umpteen centuries in the past. I believe it's still quite possible to somehow suffer through and press on without power for a couple days in this "modern" world. Well, I'm thinking specifically of the '94 storm in north Mississippi( i luckily escaped)i. 3-6 inches of ice. Some people didn't have power for a month...that sucks, especially when a tree has fallen on your house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As posted in the other thread: http://i.imgur.com/JI3oIIB.gif Nam looks to have the 6+ line now just east of Raleigh. Of course this is not all snow, a good amount would be ice. Important thing is the surface freezing line is pushed east with this run. If the nam were to be correct, we would be w/out power for a while. That is a lot of zr. I'm thankful I have a generator just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Folks, it's the NAM for gosh sakes. While it could be right, I also could win the Lotto. Seriously though the storm has not even formed yet so the runs will likely change several more times before it hits so just relax. Suffice to say that somebody will get nailed, somebody will get shafted and everybody will warm up eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 20" north of Roxboro? I'll believe it when I see. But based on the models and locations of slp 850 and even being conservative on the amounts I will be highly disappointed and pissed off if anything less than 6" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is still 60+ hours out, probably not right, but I guess the later phase is encouraging. Look at the 5h map, closed vort tracks just to our SE, almost get dry slotted, if you look at the total precip map it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Folks, it's the NAM for gosh sakes. While it could be right, I also could win the Lotto. Seriously though the storm has not even formed yet so the runs will likely change several more times before it hits so just relax. Suffice to say that somebody will get nailed, somebody will get shafted and everybody will warm up eventually But I like following the models and trying to figure out what will happen a couple days in advance...that's why I am glued to a weather forum while I should be working. The thing I'm still not buying as modeled is the power of the CAD. I really think with the snow pack it is only going to trend stronger right up until the event. I'm not sure that will help make snow for anyone else, but I do think some places that are being modeled for rain are going to end up frozen with ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is still 60+ hours out, probably not right, but I guess the later phase is encouraging. Look at the 5h map, closed vort tracks just to our SE, almost get dry slotted, if you look at the total precip map it shows. If it's going to be zr, I'll take that dry slot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is still 60+ hours out, probably not right, but I guess the later phase is encouraging. Look at the 5h map, closed vort tracks just to our SE, almost get dry slotted, if you look at the total precip map it shows. That would be better than a raging ice storm. This is a dumb question, but where do you get the plumes for the NAM. Is that available for free, or is it only pay per view stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, I'm thinking specifically of the '94 storm in north Mississippi( i luckily escaped)i. 3-6 inches of ice. Some people didn't have power for a month...that sucks, especially when a tree has fallen on your house.... I'm not looking forward to the loss of power for days.....but I'm ready for it. I'm not looking forward to having any trees fall onto my house either.....but I can't stop it. I'm enjoying the ride no matter what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If it's going to be zr, I'll take that dry slot! Any idea how much back end snow we get, if any? It's hard to tell by looking at eWall, but it looks like there would be some, assuming surface temps are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpony Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WSPA is saying 2 to 6 inches of snow with some mix. (GSP) and they said the southern part of spartanburg county to expect loss of power, which is were i am I just hope it's not as bad as 2002, wasn't fun when you can hear trees cracking and fallin around you all night with no power, and that lasted 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Maybe the models are picking up on the baroclinic zone shifting farther east due to the first wave passing. This would allow the track of the surface low to follow that track thus bringing the snow/sleet/freezing rain transition lines farther to the east. The precipitation fields will probably be so large anyway that even a shift east some 40 miles or so wouldn't change amounts much out west near the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I have no idea what's going to happen for this storm. Overall, it looks like a great set up for CLT in WNC....classic 85 special. But there looks to be and sleet/FZRN issues that will greatly reduce totals. For some reason, the models don't show the 850s crashing like they normally do. It also looks like this is not going to be a very long duration storm like it was going to be a few days ago. Looks like for WNC it's Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning. Overall, hope the 85 special look plays out and we get the 850s to crash. But right now it looks like minor snow accum with equal amounts of sleet. Just trying to catch up from the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I have no idea what's going to happen for this storm. Overall, it looks like a great set up for CLT in WNC....classic 85 special. But there looks to be and sleet/FZRN issues that will greatly reduce totals. For some reason, the models don't show the 850s crashing like they normally do. It also looks like this is not going to be a very long duration storm like it was going to be a few days ago. Looks like for WNC it's Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning. Overall, hope the 85 special look plays out and we get the 850s to crash. But right now it looks like minor snow accum with equal amounts of sleet. Just trying to catch up from the weekend. It looks like it takes the low a while to consolidate and bomb along the coast. Once that process happens, I think the 850s would crash down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Before this is over with, I might have to call the RAH office and remind them that parts of the Triad are within their CWA. They tend to forget sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any idea how much back end snow we get, if any? It's hard to tell by looking at eWall, but it looks like there would be some, assuming surface temps are there. I'm waiting on the soundings to update right now but it looks like we go to ice right around hr 60. There is a good amount of back end snow on the nam (maybe 2" ?) but back end snow never seems to work out. I also believe the nam is a little too juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Getting a little worried about power outages in Cary now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Before this is over with, I might have to call the RAH office and remind them that parts of the Triad are within their CWA. They tend to forget sometimes. yes they do. I'm in the blacksburg forecast area one county west of forsyth co. They do the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Maybe the models are picking up on the baroclinic zone shifting farther east due to the first wave passing. This would allow the track of the surface low to follow that track thus bringing the snow/sleet/freezing rain transition lines farther to the east. The precipitation fields will probably be so large anyway that even a shift east some 40 miles or so wouldn't change amounts much out west near the mountains. I would gladly trade half of my NAM precip for all snow. This IP/ZR trend is no fun at all. If the Euro holds at 12z I imagine I'll be filling up a couple spare propane tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm waiting on the soundings to update right now but it looks like we go to ice right around hr 60. There is a good amount of back end snow on the nam (maybe 2" ?) but back end snow never seems to work out. I also believe the nam is a little too juiced up. Thanks. I'm hoping that the layer will be deep enough for a lot of that to fall as plinkers. But what a run for our friends out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yes they do. I'm in the blacksburg forecast area one county west of forsyth co. They do the same thing You can often see it their Facebook and Twitter posts. For days, they'll obsess about two forecasted inches of snow for the Triangle and then right at the precipice of the event, they'll be like, "Oh, yeah. Almost forgot. Triad's supposed to get a foot or something." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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