PDUBRDU Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I agree. We got the screw job with the last storm in January, and while everyone cashed in during the January 2011 storm, we were left high and dry. I'm not going to lie. While I'm really happy for everyone who is going to get snow it is really painful to see Charlotte have forecasts of 9" or more and RDU will be lucky to get an inch. Yes, I will admit it, I am very jealous. I love where we live but the RDU screw job is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What? I don't think so. can we get snow with 850 temps in the 1 to 2° range? Like I said all I have seen it the color maps on the Euro and NAM but they clearly show that we are above freezing at that level for alot of the precip. Not saying there won't be snow...but If I were to guess, I'd say at least half of our precip would be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The fox 21 met must be looking at a worse model than me! She just showed a map that has 2-4 for most of the upstate, a 1-3 swath from NC/SC border to Asheville and a stripe of 3-5 inches over the high mountains. You sure that's not for today's event? Everybody, even the NWS GSP watch has 6-8 with locally higher. 1-3 isn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another thing for the RDU folks; going off the grids it looks like RAH is setting up the "surface freezing line" for Wednesday night along and west of US 401. Areas west of that (including downtown Raleigh) have a forecast of snow, sleet, and freezing rain; whereas areas to the east have snow, sleet, and freezing rain until 9pm, then just rain before possible ending as snow on Thursday. Looks to match close to the GFS/NAM snow/ice maps from this morning. So then why are some folks saying just rain for here? None of the models are showing just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We're not getting rain. We're going to get some snow and ice. I bet the snow line could be farther east, too, around 64 or between 64 and 95. Wishcasting perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We're not getting rain. We're going to get some snow and ice. I bet the snow line could be farther east, too, around 64 or between 64 and 95. I don't even know why I'm asking but why do you think that? Is it wishcasting or do you have reasoning behind these thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 can we get snow with 850 temps in the 1 to 2° range? Like I said all I have seen it the color maps on the Euro and NAM but they clearly show that we are above freezing at that level for alot of the precip. What part of the upstate are you referring to though? Anywhere north of I-85 for example, would be looking at more snow as the dominate p-type (until closer to the end of the event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpony Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good Mornin ya'll WSPA (GSP) is now stating that we will get 2 to 6 inches of snow and some mix, and where i live in the southern part of Spartanburg county to expect power outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't even know why I'm asking but why do you think that? Is it wishcasting or do you have reasoning behind these thoughts? The same reason folks are saying it's just going to be rain, because that's what I think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 6z NAM gives CLT 4" of Snow and 1.69" of FZR while the 6z GFS gives us 4.5" of snow and just under 3/4 of an inch of ice based on the Cobb output. That isn't counting the 2" of snow the GFS has in round 1 on tomorrow. 6z NAM: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kclt 6z GFS: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kclt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If we escape another winter with RDU not getting a 2 inch snowfall, THAT will be funny...almost unbelievable. Very good chance we don't. After this event we will be at 50% of climo over the past 5 years, everyone NSEW of us will be well over 100%. It's getting beyond ridiculous now, but, still great to see a historic winter event affect a lot of the area. Will be rooting for HKY/CLT/INT/GSO/AVL and everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What part of the upstate are you referring to though? Anywhere north of I-85 for example, would be looking at more snow as the dominate p-type (until closer to the end of the event). well greenville county specifically. Seemed like the whole greenville, pickens, oconee and maybe spartanburg county.....AND I are really am only talking about the 0z euro and 6z NAM......regardless looks to be a heck of a storm and won't complain about anything (except excessive ice...lol) here's what GSP is showing for my location on Wednesday EDIT: YIKES.....according to meteograms 6Z NAM actually has 0.8 of ice for GSP......not buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The same reason folks are saying it's just going to be rain, because that's what I think will happen. I am not saying that, just repeating what Euro is showing, more rain, yes it has 1-3" of snow, sleet but then rain for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This sucks just give me rain and go away you big old flaming disappointment of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The same reason folks are saying it's just going to be rain, because that's what I think will happen. I'm saying we could possibly go to rain based on all the models I've seen and the inland track. I'm not saying it will definitely happen. The models back me up on this but I haven't seen any models that back up your prediction. Anyway, I don't want to turn this into a negative thing. It ruins the feeling on the board and for those that could get a great storm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF came west, freezing line west of RDU for a lot of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF came west, freezing line west of RDU for a lot of the precip. I zoomed in and the line goes right through the middle of Wake Co. for most of the event...Wait, I just had some deja vu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Folks were not believing the models when they were further east. So why believe them now when they are further west? They hardly ever get the exact track right. It will probably end up somewhere in between, which is why I think east of 64 will be in good shape for a winter storm. Even if it is just a couple of inches of snow with ice on top, it's still going to be a mess and create problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF came west, freezing line west of RDU for a lot of the precip. Do you have a better image of the model? It looks like it cuts right through Raleigh; but your right it's slightly west of the 03 run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_075_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I zoomed in and the line goes right through the middle of Wake Co. for most of the event...Wait, I just had some deja vu! For some reason they love Capital Blvd. Not sure why, it is a crappy road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I want a dollar for every time someone in North Carolina has complained in the last 48 hours, and will complain in the next 96 hours, that somebody somewhere else might get, is getting, or got more snow than them. I could retire rich! (Seriously no other state's wx fiends are doing this, what is with you guys? ) The post volume would drop by like 30% if you guys stopped - you could single-handledly save the site's SQL database. You could be heroes! It's mother nature, nobody can control it, and heaven knows having whine and cheese here isn't going to change what's going to happen, whatever that may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know If I have to have an ice storm, I really would like it to be something I've never experienced before. I've never personally witnessed ice accum's over 1". If it didn't looks so bad here, I'd be up with my daughter/sil/granddaughter in Spartanburg playing in almost a foot of snow Anyone that wants an ice storm:1. Is foolish 2. Never been in one. Being without power sucks for even a day...much less weeks. They are beautiful...I'll give you that, until the cracking starts...and power goes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The trends are extremely discouraging. I think it's possible that RDU sees mostly rain, with some IP/ZR on the front end and some back-handed compliment snow showers on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Help me 12zNam. You're our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Will everyone miss me when I'm cut off from the outside world? I have been meaning to tell you I'll miss you for those few weeks you aren't here lol Especially with regard to moderating duties In all seriousness, I wouldn't want to be in your shoes. I'm hoping something saves you from that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The trends are extremely discouraging. I think it's possible that RDU sees mostly rain, with some IP/ZR on the front end and some back-handed compliment snow showers on the back end.January 2011 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 January 2011 redux?March '93 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Help me 12zNam. You're our only hope.You already had your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Help me 12zNam. You're our only hope. Expect a significant west shift on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Will everyone miss me when I'm cut off from the outside world? . Yes, but the only good thing is that the ice should melt later in the day. So at least the weather will be decent while you are out of power for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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