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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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GSP keeps inching up the totals.  The place to be on this one is going to be at a high elevation right at the edge of the escarpment -- places like Highlands, NC and Caesar's Head, SC.  A foot of snow should be no problem there.

 

If the low track is further off the coast a foot might not be a problem IMBY :weenie:

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For RDU folks, not sure what I think about the latest runs. Looks like both the NAM and GFS setup the significant wintery precip line around the US 1 corridor. Snow fall maps for both models have 6+ inches from about US 1 westward with a very sharp drop off to the east. 850s would scream that a lot of this was ice, so I would halve this to about 3" (of snow, sleet, freezing rain) from US1 to actually 6+ near the Triad.Just what I see in the models. I will say we are on the line. We do not want this thing to go anymore westward. In fact even a weaker storm is good.EDIT:NAM:http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/02/10/06/NAM_221_2014021006_F81_SNOWIN_SURFACE.pngGFShttp://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/10/06/GFS_3_2014021006_F78_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

I bet the line will be a little farther east to 64 or between 64 and 95.

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My guess is the piedmont fall line from Asheboro, Chapel hill to henderson

You may be right. There will be a sharp cut off somewhere and it is really going to depend on how amped up this low gets(..inland). I see two (extreme) possibilities for our area. One the 1996 storm that gave our area 6+ inches of sleet(and a litle snow) to the 1993 super storm that hammered areas to the west but gave us only about 2". I guess you can also throw the 2002 ice storm in there as a possiblity. Definitly looking forward to the 12z models.  

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Current thinking:

 

Raleigh: Tough call, but as of now looks like a quick onset of snow transitioning to sleet and then freezing rain. May end as some snow or cold rain Thursday. 1-4" of snow, .5-1.5" sleet, .25-.5" of freezing rain. Power outages possible.

Statesville: Mainly snow with a bit of sleet possibly mixing in at times. 4-8" of snow. 

Charlotte: Starts as snow, transitioning to a wintry mix and mainly freezing rain for awhile. Possibly kicks back over to snow before ending. 2-4" of snow, .1-.25" of freezing rain. Power outages not out of the question.

Greenville: Mainly rain, could end as some snow. Dusting of snow at best.

New Bern: Rain. 2-3" or so of it, too.

Boone: All Snow. 4-8" of snow.

Lenoir: Mostly Snow. Sleet may mix in at times. 4-8" of snow

Hickory: Mostly Snow. Sleet may mix in at times. 4-8" of snow

Greensboro: Snow to begin, Wintry mix follows. Ends as some snow. 2-4" of snow. .1-.25" of freezing rain. Power outages not out of the question.

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Its not looking good for GSO at the moment. It looks horrible for RDU...I don't see how the triangle ends up with mostly snow at this point.

Oooh lord..will you all make your guesses one way or the other. What do u mean when GSO does not look good? In means of getting hammered by snow or getting no snow?

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Current thinking:[/size]

 

Raleigh: Tough call, but as of now looks like a quick onset of snow transitioning to sleet and then freezing rain. May end as some snow or cold rain Thursday. 1-4" of snow, .5-1.5" sleet, .25-.5" of freezing rain. Power outages possible.[/size]Statesville: Mainly snow with a bit of sleet possibly mixing in at times. 4-8" of snow. [/size]Charlotte: Starts as snow, transitioning to a wintry mix and mainly freezing rain for awhile. Possibly kicks back over to snow before ending. 2-4" of snow, .1-.25" of freezing rain. Power outages not out of the question.[/size]Greenville: Mainly rain, could end as some snow. Dusting of snow at best.[/size]New Bern: Rain. 2-3" or so of it, too.[/size]Boone: All Snow. 4-8" of snow.[/size]Lenoir: Mostly Snow. Sleet may mix in at times. 4-8" of snow[/size]Hickory: Mostly Snow. Sleet may mix in at times. 4-8" of snow[/size]Greensboro: Snow to begin, Wintry mix follows. Ends as some snow. 2-4" of snow. .1-.25" of freezing rain. Power outages not out of the question.[/size]

...Must be a local met...ok ok..staying off the forums and just waiting to see what mother nature says..one says big another goes 2-4 inches..no in between I guesd

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Oooh lord..will you all make your guesses one way or the other. What do u mean when GSO does not look good? In means of getting hammered by snow or getting no snow?

I think Greensboro looks good in terms of wintery weather. The big question is how much mixing of sleet and freezing rain Greensboro gets. RDU right now looks like an ice storm, but this could go to just plain rain as well if the low gets to close.

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i think i might go to hickory if this looks like they could get a foot of snow while raleigh get's sleet. screw that mess. i can work from home on my laptop lol.

 

I like your thinking, sir!  If you're planning to come back this way, things are looking good.  I mean, all the models spell out awesome snow totals for us, but I'm trying to temper expectations still 2+ days away.

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I think Greensboro looks good in terms of wintery weather. The big question is how much mixing of sleet and freezing rain Greensboro gets. RDU right now looks like an ice storm, but this could go to just plain rain as well if the low gets to close.

0z Euro brings the freezing line just west of RDU, west side of Wake County, a lot would flip to rain verbatim. This goes anymore west, which I expect, it could be more rain.

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It's funny, the local mets being ultra conservative, as usual! NWS discussion/ watch statement has us in the 4-6 range and I know they have access to everything we do, and probably more!! They wouldn't say 6 inches to save their lives! I think 6+ is easily achievable if we can keep the sleet at bay!

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0z Euro brings the freezing line just west of RDU, west side of Wake County, a lot would flip to rain verbatim. This goes anymore west, which I expect, it could be more rain.

Heck, give me the rain. Cannot afford a power outage and the ensuing mess that creates.

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A real question ? The precip shield looks to barely get to the NC mountains, so I am curious as to how people are coming up with foot totals there? I think in my neck of the woods, we will be on the N edge of heavy precip, so I think somewhere between greenwood and Caesars head will be the bullseye if too much sleet does not mix in

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Yep, looks like the standard, always reliable NW trend has solidly begun. Congrats mountains!

LOL! Two weeks ago where was the NW trend? We got the patented screw RDU SE trend inside 24 hours, I have no doubt this ticks a hair more amped/NW the next 24-36 hours. But the sleet was never exciting for me and frzn even less, so for me personally some front end snow to sleet to rain wouldn't be bad. Maybe getting dry slotted would help scale back on torrential rain

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