JoshM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think I remember that one! Based on the sharp cutoff. I was in Gastonia at the time . It stands out because I remember the weather guy said 10 or 12 flakes might mix in with the rain, we got close to a foot! 10 or 12 inches mixed in :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hopefully, that is not an analogue for this storm! The surface low track may be similar, but it looks to me like that storm had a weaker and much further north CAD high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ya I like the looks of this storm. Some have thrown around the Dec 18th storm to for us. Will be interesting and exciting. Anyway thanks for the write up and always good to have you on our side. I think it depends on how wrapped up the 850mb low gets. NAM is probably too amped, the GFS is probably too weak. The Dec 2009 storm had a stronger southern stream system along with it being in a juiced up El Nino winter...so I think this has a ways to go to reach that level, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT's first call probably belongs in banter but wow. Hooks me in the very bottom of the 12" line. This first call map is too optimistic by most/all accounts for KCAE and surrounding areas, all reports right now are ZR/R as far south as Augusta, and here it's talking about 2-4" snow? Please, I'll take it but I don't think it's gonna happen! Prepared to mostly miss this one. Columbia can take the ZR please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think I remember that one! Based on the sharp cutoff. I was in Gastonia at the time . It stands out because I remember the weather guy said 10 or 12 flakes might mix in with the rain, we got close to a foot! Yeah, that one was the biggest bust on the plus side that I can remember. Charlotte forecast was rain, possibly mixed with sleet, and we ended up with 6-9 inches. The surface low track may be similar, but it looks to me like that storm had a weaker and much further north CAD high. Yeah, the cold air barely hung on with that one...heavy, wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1987 was Roger Smith's analog year all along. God it might really happen,or something close to it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can somebody fire up the doc early please? I'm tired and I just want to confirm my foot of snow that DT promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think it depends on how wrapped up the 850mb low gets. NAM is probably too amped, the GFS is probably too weak. The Dec 2009 storm had a stronger southern stream system along with it being in a juiced up El Nino winter...so I think this has a ways to go to reach that level, but we'll see Ya some similarities but I M not expecting the 15 inches we got from that storm. More along the lines of 4-8 inches. Maybe more maybe less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Haha, you're right. WFMY: Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. 60% Chance of Snow. Significant Accumulations of a Few Inches Possible. High 32. I don't think it helps that the weekend crew is in now. They should start getting more bullish tomorrow, I'd think. I don't blame them. That's what was needed for now. Around here 2 or 3 inches will get the same response from the public and local government as 6 to 8. Everybody runs to the grocery store, they start spreading brine on major streets and everyone tunes in to the weather from now until the event ether starts or fizzles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I say we lock that **** up. DT probably was planning on putting his first call out this morning but it took him all day to find a map that included the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Raleigh had a huge sleet storm in Feb 1987...4-8 inches of sleet...most I've ever heard of Setup was different than the upcoming storm though...that one was a Miller B - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0216.php I remember that storm as well. I was a junior in high school and me and some buddies were out doing donuts on the ice in the mall parking lot. It was fun until one time my car just slid sideways into a median and bent the rims up. My dad wasn't very happy! That must be the one I was just thinking about as well. It was the most sleet I have ever seen. It just went on and on, sleeted for what must have been over 24 hours. I measured 4.5 inches of sleet. I was in Durham at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That must be the one I was just thinking about as well. It was the most sleet I have ever seen. It just went on and on, sleeted for what must have been over 24 hours. I measured 4.5 inches of sleet. I was in Durham at the time. I bet the roads were fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow retreats to north carolina by hour 66. ga/sc gets obliterated with sleet/freezing rain. 0.75 to close to one inch..in 6 hours in and around augusta. My heart is sinking right now. Was really hoping we weren't going to be the losers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With the Euro still looking fantastic , I'm all in!! I might be bluffing, but I'm all in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can someone with the euro tell me how it's looking for the NC mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can someone with the euro tell me how it's looking for the NC mountains? Based on storm thread reaction it's a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lookout, still looking like mostly a rain event in east al and west ga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah. I don't know what exactly I'm in for, but I'm in too. Strike what I said earlier, the dramatic cooling on the Euro says we're gonna get whomped with something. Probably more ZR than anyone here can handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcomb68 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 looks like a few of the Mets in Greensboro are slowly leaning towards a 4-6" total and maybe more.. is it still showing a good snow amount for Greensboro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Based on storm thread reaction it's a big hit Correct. It's a big hitter from I-85 westward, more or less. Pretty close to its last run, but a little juicier with the precip. DC (especially the NW burbs) gets another snowmageddon storm from it, too. They're in an interesting situation when the Euro showing 20" while the GFS shows practically nothing. And it's a storm that's 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Correct. DC (especially the NW burbs) gets another snowmageddon storm from it, too. They're in an interesting situation when the Euro showing 20" while the GFS shows practically nothing. And it's a storm that's 2-3 days out. One of the clown maps posted gave the mountains around 10+ inches. Is that backed up by the QPF totals, or is it somewhat overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Correct. It's a big hitter from I-85 westward, more or less. Pretty close to its last run, but a little juicier with the precip. DC (especially the NW burbs) gets another snowmageddon storm from it, too. They're in an interesting situation when the Euro showing 20" while the GFS shows practically nothing. And it's a storm that's 2-3 days out. Always go with the EURO lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 by hour 60, temps are at or below freezing almost to the alabama line west of atlanta. Afterwards it looks like around 0.75 or there abouts falls. Keep in mind the euro might be a degree or two too warm here, in which case temps probably drop below freezing into alabama. The Euro has moved towards my idea ATL is mainly liquid Tuesday with maybe some RASN or RAPL 12-15z at times...it's got 3-4C now on 2 meter temps til 21z or so but it's 0.8c by 06z I still think around 20-00z is when the 32 line passes through and south of them Does this guy even read what he comments on?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One of the clown maps posted gave the mountains around 10+ inches. Is that backed up by the QPF totals, or is it somewhat overdone? Those totals look to be valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Does this guy even read what he comments on?? I think he's referring to the first system/wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stdi-1tIUhM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When do the Euro eps members come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 someone wanna take a peak at the soundings across central NC? trying to get a read on how much pure snow versus IP we're gonna get. Personally, I don't think anyone west of raleigh is going to have zr much at all....I spect warm bias in the Euro is at work again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wouldn't say you are ground zero..I think those "honors" will go to augusta over toward columbia. That area has consistently been shown to go below freezing early. As for macon, man it's a tough tough call. Macon itself looks right on the line but if you go any distance at all to the north and east you have the models showing freezing temps and soon enough that it accumulates to damaging levels. It's hard to imagine though with wedging this strong that macon doesn't reach freezing by some point. This is especially true if you look at 925mb, 950mb to 975mb temps..where they are subfreezing at macon early on (hour 60). That is a pretty good sign. Super... I'll be sure to document the whole thing. Our QPF is so high it's making me kind of nauseous. What's disconcerting is that no forecast beyond "mostly rain" is in place at this moment. I hope the models can agree a little better and the NWS/news mets can get the word out in time. Ice storms are no joke. edit: I'll document it... if my power stays on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm in the 70% prob from hpc for 4in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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