Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Ya I like the looks of this storm. Some have thrown around the Dec 18th storm to for us.  Will be interesting and exciting. Anyway thanks for the write up and always good to have you on our side.

I think it depends on how wrapped up the 850mb low gets.  NAM is probably too amped, the GFS is probably too weak.  The Dec 2009 storm had a stronger southern stream system along with it being in a juiced up El Nino winter...so I think this has a ways to go to reach that level, but we'll see

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DT's first call probably belongs in banter but wow. Hooks me in the very bottom of the 12" line. :weenie:

 

 

 

 

This first call map is too optimistic by most/all accounts for KCAE and surrounding areas, all reports right now are ZR/R as far south as Augusta, and here it's talking about 2-4" snow? Please, I'll take it but I don't think it's gonna happen!  ^_^  Prepared to mostly miss this one. Columbia can take the ZR please!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I remember that one! Based on the sharp cutoff. I was in Gastonia at the time . It stands out because I remember the weather guy said 10 or 12 flakes might mix in with the rain, we got close to a foot!

Yeah, that one was the biggest bust on the plus side that I can remember.  Charlotte forecast was rain, possibly mixed with sleet, and we ended up with 6-9 inches.

 

The surface low track may be similar, but it looks to me like that storm had a weaker and much further north CAD high.

Yeah, the cold air barely hung on with that one...heavy, wet snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it depends on how wrapped up the 850mb low gets.  NAM is probably too amped, the GFS is probably too weak.  The Dec 2009 storm had a stronger southern stream system along with it being in a juiced up El Nino winter...so I think this has a ways to go to reach that level, but we'll see

Ya some similarities but I M not expecting the 15 inches we got from that storm. More along the lines of 4-8 inches. Maybe more maybe less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha, you're right.

 

WFMY: Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. 60% Chance of Snow. Significant Accumulations of a Few Inches Possible. High 32.

 

I don't think it helps that the weekend crew is in now.  They should start getting more bullish tomorrow, I'd think.  I don't blame them.

That's what was needed for now. Around here 2 or 3 inches will get the same response from the public and local government as 6 to 8. Everybody runs to the grocery store, they start spreading brine on major streets and everyone tunes in to the weather from now until the event ether starts or fizzles out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Raleigh had a huge sleet storm in Feb 1987...4-8 inches of sleet...most I've ever heard of

 

Setup was different than the upcoming storm though...that one was a Miller B - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0216.php

 

3xG5NE5.gif

 

 

I remember that storm as well.  I was a junior in high school and me and some buddies were out doing donuts on the ice in the mall parking lot.  It was fun until one time my car just slid sideways into a median and bent the rims up.  My dad wasn't very happy! :)

 

That must be the one I was just thinking about as well. It was the most sleet I have ever seen. It just went on and on, sleeted for what must have been over 24 hours. I measured 4.5 inches of sleet. I was in Durham at the time.  :arrowhead:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on storm thread reaction it's a big hit

 

Correct.  It's a big hitter from I-85 westward, more or less.  Pretty close to its last run, but a little juicier with the precip.

 

DC (especially the NW burbs) gets another snowmageddon storm from it, too.  They're in an interesting situation when the Euro showing 20" while the GFS shows practically nothing.  And it's a storm that's 2-3 days out. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct.  DC (especially the NW burbs) gets another snowmageddon storm from it, too.  They're in an interesting situation when the Euro showing 20" while the GFS shows practically nothing.  And it's a storm that's 2-3 days out. :lol:

 

One of the clown maps posted gave the mountains around 10+ inches. Is that backed up by the QPF totals, or is it somewhat overdone?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct.  It's a big hitter from I-85 westward, more or less.  Pretty close to its last run, but a little juicier with the precip.

 

DC (especially the NW burbs) gets another snowmageddon storm from it, too.  They're in an interesting situation when the Euro showing 20" while the GFS shows practically nothing.  And it's a storm that's 2-3 days out. :lol:

Always go with the EURO lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

by hour 60, temps are at or below freezing almost to the alabama line west of atlanta. Afterwards it looks like around 0.75 or there abouts falls. Keep in mind the euro might be a degree or two too warm here, in which case temps probably drop below freezing into alabama.

 

 

The Euro has moved towards my idea ATL is mainly liquid Tuesday with maybe some RASN or RAPL 12-15z at times...it's got 3-4C now on 2 meter temps til 21z or so but it's 0.8c by 06z I still think around 20-00z is when the 32 line passes through and south of them

 

 

Does this guy even read what he comments on??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't say you are ground zero..I think those "honors" will go to augusta over toward columbia. That area has consistently been shown to go below freezing early. As for macon, man it's a tough tough call. Macon itself looks right on the line but if you go any distance at all to the north and east you have the models showing freezing temps and soon enough that it accumulates to damaging levels. It's hard to imagine though with wedging this strong that macon doesn't reach freezing by some point. This is especially true if you look at 925mb, 950mb to 975mb temps..where they are subfreezing at macon early on (hour 60). That is a pretty good sign.

 

Super...  :rolleyes:  I'll be sure to document the whole thing. Our QPF is so high it's making me kind of nauseous. What's disconcerting is that no forecast beyond "mostly rain" is in place at this moment. I hope the models can agree a little better and the NWS/news mets can get the word out in time. Ice storms are no joke.

 

edit: I'll document it... if my power stays on...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...