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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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the nam did not start phasing until hour 54.

 

Actually starts at 45 on the NAM, by 48 it's already trying to go negative, see that kink in the 500mb VORT in Tx...  Compare to the RGEM at 48, still very much positive trough, NAM maybe right, it would be great to see 2ft of snow in the western-NC's

 

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_048_0500.gif

post-2311-0-97929600-1392003240_thumb.pn

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I don't know why I'm so interested in what the GFS is going to do on this run.  It has been a worthless piece of crap on this storm just throwing out random solutions every 6 hours.  I hope one day we can stop depending on the EU to forecast our weather for us.

 

I will say this is about the time in an event when the GFS stops being worthless and locks into a reasonable solution...we shall see.

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How we lookin' on this one, Pack? Or James. Or anybody? :)

 

Looked great, but I think the GFS is probably to far east, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Euro tick east some and the GFS to tick west from here.  CMC will be interesting, if you looked at it's 12z Ens members SLP tracks the OP was the clear west outlier, where the GFS at 12/18z it's Op run was the clear east outlier, so you would think the GFS would come west, which it did and curious to see if CMC ticks east.

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Aren't we in the gfs wheelhouse more so than the euro. Thought I read that somewhere. GFS is best inside 3 days or better than euro inside 3 days anyway

 

Nope, not a chance, the 0z GFS is still a hair east of the 18z GEFS mean, so I think it will shift west some more.  The 18z GEFS mean and the 12z Euro EPS mean are maybe 25 miles apart off the coast of NC.  Only chance we have for more snow is if the h5 vort closes off and tracks to our SE, no model shows that but that would collapse the 850 line.  Right now we are in line for a big ice storm, the 0z NAM was the worst case for a track west and that was a raging ice storm.

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Aren't we in the gfs wheelhouse more so than the euro. Thought I read that somewhere. GFS is best inside 3 days or better than euro inside 3 days anyway

The GFS just got the idea that there was going to be a storm 24h ago.  I'm not giving it much credit until it has a lot of support.

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