RevDodd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ran the 0z NAM for KPOB (Fort Bragg) ... gotta say I'm surprised it spit out as much snow as it did, abt, 3 inches compacted. .5 sleet and .5 ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's actually 1.992" of zr Ah, okay. I was just going off the #s on the text output. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Atlanta still looks awfully close to nothing on the NAM. You go 40-50 miles from the city ( like my area) and it's all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS is going to be bigger than it's 18z run, stronger southern fort digging further south at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 here comes qpf explosion number. HR54 looks colder for us Chris at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If that northern energy catches up to the southern energy on the GFS this is going to be a huge run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS is going to be bigger than it's 18z run, stronger southern fort digging further south at 54 It's coming to the euros altar tonight. Right on cue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Phasing at 63, trying to go positive, very Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 here comes qpf explosion number. HR54 looks colder for us Chris at 2m I like the first wave..the gfs has it just about all snow here. Only a tiny warm layer around 850 that is barely above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 And at 60 it is about to catch it here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 @69 snow in CLT west. This looks to be a classic run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Verbatim, that was a great NAM run for the NC mountains (for snow). Strengthening closed 850mb low tracks from N MS, to extreme NW SC, to just east of Asheville. For a 850mb low of that strength, it's pretty much a must to be NW of its track to get all snow (12z Euro and Euro Ensemble tracked the 850mb low more through central NC). For the mtns, the NAM has strong warm advection lift combined with upslope flow out of the SE. Also, a nice 500mb vort max track from central AL to central NC. Heavy snow for the mtns on this NAM run. Well said. The 850 low track is crucial and will be the indicator to watch on WAA We have witnessed WAA in many storms in the past to roar in from the coast in the critical layers in a matter of a few hours as a storm is winding up. If the NAM is right tonight, the mountains come out of this with the first solid substantial snowfall of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 @72 BOOM! Wetter and just a hair colder. This is good for WNC. 1012 low popping just off the coast and looks to be deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 @69 snow in CLT west. This looks to be a classic run. Yeah.. classic storm track with expected snow/sleet/rain line positioning.. Still.. just a 1013mb low ? C'mon now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Goes negative at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS still has those dual lows... Good run for the I-85 corridor and into the mountains, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Track is a little further east. If you're in RDU you would much prefer this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00Z KRDU NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Widespread 8-10 from CLT to AVL on this run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah.. classic storm track with expected snow/sleet/rain line positioning.. Still.. just a 1013mb low ? C'mon now! We're digging buddy. Looks like some good snows wrapping around as well. Has a foot mark on the SV maps just around Jeremy's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like the first wave..the gfs has it just about all snow here. Only a tiny warm layer around 850 that is barely above freezing. oh I bet...I do agree with you about the first initial wave. That really helps NC cool down and then helps us. GFS has us literally at 34 degrees from 6z wed to 00z thur when its 32. I can't honestly think thats right given such a deep and cold fetch from our NE on those winds...hell maybe it will be 33-34 and rain 2.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks to stay all-snow from maybe Burlington or so down to Charlotte. Good totals and a big hit. Good trend from the GFS. 8"+ for the I-85 corridor from GSO down towards CLT and into SW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Track is a little further east. If you're in RDU you would much prefer this track. Yeah, you an see what the difference 50 miles makes. Let's just hope the Euro doesn't tick NW anymore, it very well might. I imagine everyone north of us is expecting the GFS to keep ticking NW, which it usually does at 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 gfs continues to have what looks like feedback issues with that blob of convection. It's a little concerning that it's had this for several runs so it might not be all convective feedback but a real cluster..in which case areas further north would be hurt with totals. Will be interesting to see if the canadian or euro show it because up until now they haven't. gfs has my 850mb temp at around 33...nam is around 40 lol. Gfs looks like a lot of sleet or snow/sleet mix here but it's very close to being all snow. Any heavier precip it probably would be. Looks like all snow in gainesville to anderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gfs phases just a tad later than the nam. Trend so far at 0z is an earlier phase. Hope the cmc, ukie and euro follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice wraparound band at 75 hours and it's snowing over North Georgia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For the love of all that is holy please let the GFS be the correct solution. Has snow starting around Charlotte at 18z Tuesday and doesn't end until 15z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS once again keep’s the upstate as all snow... about 1 inch of liquid falls so we’re talking about maybe a foot. Geez, I hope it’s right. I have a feeling models will trend this way. I just don’t see this system bombing out like the NAM shows in such a fast flow, when every other system this winter has been progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For the love of all that is holy please let the GFS be the correct solution. Has snow starting around Charlotte at 18z Tuesday and doesn't end until 15z Thursday. I was just about to type that, almost 50 hours for bulk of NC. LOL, will never happen, but nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For fun, here's the clown from InstantWeatherMaps: Should I post it in centimeters to make it look more impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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