NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the pre-eminent paper on this topic. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF986.1 What you look for is if the convection is moving out faster from the parent storm system then what the model is forecasting. In those events then the model is underestimating the impact of the stabilization on the atmosphere that the convection has and will most likley overpredict QPF. And in the other hand if the convection is slower than what was modeled QPF downstream may end up being greater than modeled thanks to better moisture inflow. Looks like the 12z NAM-4km to me is pretty close to what is going on and therefore its modeled QPF may be accurate. This is a tricky topic and you cant just say just because there are storms in the gulf moisture is robbed. There are almost always storms in the Gulf with a southeast winter storm. seems like in the past when this has happened (our moisture is stolen lol) there are no returns over AL, MS, etc. - there are returns, moisture and i would assume energy to tap if the s/w catches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Great video from Brad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at that. If our beloved Lakes low can slow/weaken a bit and allow some HP to squeeze in to keep the sfc below freezing we'd be gold all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At the 1:16 mark is in line and needs to be heard by all. Great video from Brad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/12/14 1526Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1500Z KUSSELSON NOAA AMSU:0948Z 1116Z DMSP SSMIS:1115Z 1257Z 1358Z . LOCATION...NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...E TENNESSEE... . ATTN WFOS...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC... . EVENT...SNOW AND ICE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH...FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER NC.... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MAIN HEAVY RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS AND COLD CLOUD TOPS WERE CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE C AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3" COAST TO 1.6" NEAR LOW IN THE GULF HELPING TO ALLOW FOR A STEADY MODERATE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO C AND EASTERN GA AND CENTRAL SC. MOISTURE IMPULSE ALONG THE SW TO NE ORIENTED PLUME IN THE GULF HAVE BEEN COMING NORTH FROM THE YUCATAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN CURING INTO FL PANHANDLE COAST. RESULTANT CLOUD SIGNATURE WITH GOOD GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS A BAROCLINIC LEAF NE/E CENTRAL GA INTO S CENTRAL NC WITH A MINOR LEAF TO THE WEST ACROSS NW/N CENTRAL GA INTO SW NC AND SE TN. HIGHER PWAT MOISTURE HAS ALSO SETTLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST VIC OF JUST OFFSHORE SE GEORGIA/NE FL COAST AND EXPECTING WEAK LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NE GULF OF MEXICO TO MIGRATE TOWARD THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PROGRESS. SO ONLY WEAK ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO SYSTEM TILL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SNOW WILL BE MOVING NORTH AND INCREASE BOTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA CENTERED IN CENTRAL PART AND BEGIN TO WORK TOWARD THE VA-NC BORDER AT END OF PERIOD. CERTAINLY FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO INCREASING AND OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AT AN INCREASING PACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 1"/HR SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE COMMON CENTRAL NC IN THE 18-21Z PERIOD... EARLIER N CENTRAL SC AND S CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z (PROBABLY LONGER S CENTRAL NC)...WHERE RATES CAN INCREASE TO 1"/HR THROUGH 18Z THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cobb output for RDU from 12z NAM. yeesh 3.4 inches of snow 1.34 inches of freezing rain. Allen I'm hoping your right and the low stayes a little more out to sea, but we'll see. 1.34" of ice would be a re-peat of 2002 if not worse. http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/2014021212/KRDU/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS says have a great day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think the reason for all the bust talk and worry (including myself) is yesterday there wasn't this big dry slot modeled or discussed. Add to that the radar going sparse wasn't shown for those that follow the simulated closely. And in the past the nowcasting of radar watching told the gospel and storms missed the phase and we were left out or on the very low end of predictions. And then you add to that local tv stations claiming it will snow from daybreak Wednesday till Thursday morning. It's a product of being burned many times before and all the high expectations for the storm of the century. So let's try to play nice(most are responding that way but a few that haven't been on here since 4am are coming in blowing people out and it's not warranted) Let the mods do their job. And it's snowing better now than the whole morning here after a LONG break in the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I smell a BIG bust for western NC gulf storms robbing moisture! every outlet giving me 10-15 inches not happen, I bet I want get half that! Hope like heck I'm wrong!!! Not surprising. This always happens when a big storm is predicted. Guys, seriously? Oh ye of little faith ... Latest from Blacksburg ... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1029 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...HEAVY SNOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY... .A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW...WITH A FEW HOURS OF SLEET POSSIBLE EAST OF DANVILLE VA LATE TONIGHT. A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON- CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE... TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI... BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY... GALAX...FLOYD...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE... SOUTH BOSTON 1029 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF SLEET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF DANVILLE. * TIMING...SNOW TO BEGIN AROUND NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING THURSDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING AT RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. IN ADDITION...SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF DANVILLE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 15z RAP has a change over to ZR in 12 hours from AVL to CLT and up to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1013 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NCCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 121613Z - 122215ZSUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSSPARTS OF ERN NC LATE THIS MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD INCREASETO 0.10 TO 0.15 OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS AS PRECIPITATIONSPREADS NWD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ISFORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL AND WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON WHERESNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLYHIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVELTROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANMTNS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREADPRECIPITATION LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LIFT IS BEINGENHANCED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 55 KT LOWTO MID-LEVEL JET IN ERN GA AND SC. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVENWD INTO NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NWDEXPANSION OF MODERATE SNOW FROM THE WINSTON-SALEM EWD TO THEVICINITY OF RALEIGH/DURHAM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ISEXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES WITHLOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.FURTHER TO THE EAST...SFC TEMPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING FROMWILMINGTON NWD TO GREENVILLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDORSHOW A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THEFORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.15OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THISAFTERNOON...SFC TEMPS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVEFREEZING RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 sure hope the HRRR is legit......last run shows between 0.1 and 1 inch in NW SC right now (very accurate) and and close to 12" by 2 am. Storm cancel cancel....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 New thread guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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