Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks Phil! (Didn't see the post in the other thread) I remember the 09 storm well. We have colder temps this time so that is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The phase with the Kansas energy is what puts this thing into high gear and bomb the low near the SE coast. This piece? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks Phil! (Didn't see the post in the other thread) I remember the 09 storm well. We have colder temps this time so that is encouraging. Yes colder temperatures will help... the snow in the 09 event was essentially cement with 6-8:1 ratios in incredibly heavy snowfall rates (not to mention thundersnow!). This event will have similar amounts yet with colder surface temperatures... a recipe for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Having been under that March 09 deformation zone, I can attest to the insane rates of Dorito's under that thing of beauty. What I would give for this one to replicate that storm here...February night version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Having been under that March 09 deformation zone, I can attest to the insane rates of Dorito's under that thing of beauty. What I would give for this one to replicate that storm here...February night version. You got Doritos under that 09 band?! Man, I am so jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I smell a BIG bust for western NC gulf storms robbing moisture! every outlet giving me 10-15 inches not happen, I bet I want get half that! Hope like heck I'm wrong!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like the RGEM is a big hit. DT posted this map on facebook. If I remember correctly, this one takes into account the sleet and freezing rain into the snowfall accumulations map that doesn't happen on most of the other models. Some correct me if I'm wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I smell a BIG bust for western NC gulf storms robbing moisture! every outlet giving me 10-15 inches not happen, I bet I want get half that! Hope like heck I'm wrong!!! Not surprising. This always happens when a big storm is predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 First thing I noticed this morning was the GoM convection. That's always a red flag. However, I don't think it will necessarily play a big role in the Carolinas with this event. When the phasing occurs later today, we should see the area of precip in N AL and N GA really blossom nicely. In fact, the RPM has the Gulf coast convection indicated very nicely in the runs this morning.... the eastward progress of the convection is just a little faster in reality than on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 First thing I noticed this morning was the GoM convection. That's always a red flag. However, I don't think it will necessarily play a big role in the Carolinas with this event. When the phasing occurs later today, we should see the area of precip in N AL and N GA really blossom nicely. In fact, the RPM has the Gulf coast convection indicated very nicely in the runs this morning.... the eastward progress of the convection is just a little faster in reality than on the model. I agree Matthew, The convection is not going to play a big role in our area with this event. The system is moving right on schedule and I expect to see the radar beginning to fill in over the next few hours as the energy moves east, begins to strengthens, and the surface low begins to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For those in the CLT area worried about mixing. I've noticed the RAP keeps the snow around longer in our area. It might be seeing that temps are colder aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the pre-eminent paper on this topic. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF986.1 What you look for is if the convection is moving out faster from the parent storm system then what the model is forecasting. In those events then the model is underestimating the impact of the stabilization on the atmosphere that the convection has and will most likley overpredict QPF. And in the other hand if the convection is slower than what was modeled QPF downstream may end up being greater than modeled thanks to better moisture inflow. Looks like the 12z NAM-4km to me is pretty close to what is going on and therefore its modeled QPF may be accurate. This is a tricky topic and you cant just say just because there are storms in the gulf moisture is robbed. There are almost always storms in the Gulf with a southeast winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thinks for the input Matt and Allan!! Great news " as the radar turns" !! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP @ 1AM, 18HR Closed ULL over North AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For those on the mixing line, it appears that both the 12z nam and 4k hi-res nam came in snowier and with less mixing than the previous runs. Jacked the QPF up as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP @ 1AM, 18HR Closed ULL over North AL Yeah I saw Robert post this...give credit where credit is due. How does this compare/contrast to other models? AKA why are you posting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Never saw it close off on any global models this early. Heavy banding into North AL. Yeah I saw Robert post this...give credit where credit is due. How does this compare/contrast to other models? AKA why are you posting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the pre-eminent paper on this topic. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF986.1 What you look for is if the convection is moving out faster from the parent storm system then what the model is forecasting. In those events then the model is underestimating the impact of the stabilization on the atmosphere that the convection has and will most likley overpredict QPF. And in the other hand if the convection is slower than what was modeled QPF downstream may end up being greater than modeled thanks to better moisture inflow. Looks like the 12z NAM-4km to me is pretty close to what is going on and therefore its modeled QPF may be accurate. This is a tricky topic and you cant just say just because there are storms in the gulf moisture is robbed. There are almost always storms in the Gulf with a southeast winter storm. Yep, when it is orientated NE-SW, it can actually enhance QPF downstream. Bottom line is I don't think it's a big concern this time around. But we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Never saw it close off on any global models this early. Heavy banding into North AL.yeah that's closed off quicker than the 00z euro I think. It's coming west if that's the case I would assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW The discussion earlier about the SLP track by the euro not being correct. Well its true. The SLP should remain completely offshore of Wilmington and Hatteras. The primary LP is forming where Raleighwx(allan) showed the pressure drops on the posted map. The primary is in the GOM transferring to the secondary(which will be the primary) ESE of Jacksonville, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WPC does not waver on the development with these maps. Thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Has Robert updated this morning? I'm not asking for any of his stuff but was wondering if he has made any changes or sees anything not correctly modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like RGEM has shifted east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 you can follow him on Facebook. He did not change his forecast. Just talked about the RAP closing the 850 off and to watch the GOM. Has Robert updated this morning? I'm not asking for any of his stuff but was wondering if he has made any changes or sees anything not correctly modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does that mean Atlanta turns out OK? I believe so. I believe the lull is due to a slight delay in the energy rounding the base of the trough. It is just now occurring and will be helping the coastal storm strengthen. This will help to develop very heavy precipitation on the northwest side of the storm. The storm is just beginning for most as the upper level disturbance swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cobb output for RDU from 12z NAM. yeesh 3.4 inches of snow 1.34 inches of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cobb output for RDU from 12z NAM. yeesh 3.4 inches of snow 1.34 inches of freezing rain. Atleast it's finally seeing some snow, but yuck on the frzn. Here is latest RGEM output, much less rain than previous runs, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those WPC maps look pretty low to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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