MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well this is a2 hour change map vs the 3 hour change map on unisys and you can see the -1 there east of SC, which matches up with Unisys map which has a finer contour interval. I dont think it is premature if you have always thought the Euro track was too far west like I have. Doesnt mean I will be right of course, but we shall sees I see slight pressure raises in the Gulf with only falls in small area to the NE of center where you would expect with current model solution and just off in the Atlantic. What I'm suggesting is this is just noise in the data so to speak so probably nothing to hang a hat on quite yet. Yes-I'm on the other side of the fence-favor a more inland solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well this is a2 hour change map vs the 3 hour change map on unisys and you can see the -1 there east of SC, which matches up with Unisys map which has a finer contour interval. I dont think it is premature if you have always thought the Euro track was too far west like I have. Doesnt mean I will be right of course, but we shall sees One of our local mets said several days ago that he felt the track would be offshore and the models were to far inland,he felt maybe 75-100 miles east of hatteras as this is typically the preferred track in these setups with such a strong high, but the models have doggedly shot that theory down. Doesn't mean the models are right though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All one has to do is look at pressure falls and the HRRR forecast to see that a further east solution is very likely. HRRR has been king in the short range this year, handling all the complex snows here in the Southeast as well as the NE exceptionally well. Here is where it has the surface low in 15 hours, further south and east from the other models. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014021211&plot_type=3hap_t6sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t6&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One of our local mets said several days ago that he felt the track would be offshore and the models were to far inland,he felt maybe 75-100 miles east of hatteras as this is typically the preferred track in these setups with such a strong high, but the models have doggedly shot that theory down. Doesn't mean the models are right though I wonder if it the more inland track shown is because the high is retreating so ferociously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Certainly possible. I have been favoring a slightly off shore track the whole time offshore of SC/GA and then across the Outer Banks. The coastal plain track of the Euro just seemed to far west to me with an established wedge. Ok Def something to watch for... being pushed over the Gulf stream could get interesting. I agree.. its almost impossible for a system to track into a wedge. Same with this system. Now if the LP tracks off shore that would mean that the upper levels will fall in closer line with slp. So good possibilty of the 850 tracking over and just of 95 to right? It would certainly cut out mixing concerns towards my area and triad area. But my MS paint art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pressure falls and likely location of lows is physics. Physics trump models in my mind -- unless we have something in the interim that'll move the greatest pressure falls further west over time (like an eroding high) I imagine that's a very good look at how this storm will unfold this afternoon and into this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0744 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL GA AND SC/WESTERN NCCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 121344Z - 121815ZSUMMARY...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSSPARTS OF GA/CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONSARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GAINTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC...WHILE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWWILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON IN UPSTATE AREAS AND NEAR THEAPPALACHIANS.DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVETROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADARIMAGERY INDICATE AN EVOLVING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE AND EXTENSIVEMID-HIGH CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THECAROLINAS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN/NORTH OF A STRENGTHENINGLOW-LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR IMPLIED PER WSR-88D VWP/12Z RAOB DATA.AS SIGNIFICANT UVV/S OVERSPREAD THE REGION...COLD AIR DAMMING WILLCONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION THIS MORNINGESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS A ROUGHSOUTHERN DEMARCATION OF THE MOST IMPACTFUL ICE/SNOW THISMORNING...THE SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE AS OF 13Z CONTINUES TO MAKEA SLOW/STEADY SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT /APPROX 25 MILE CHANGE PER HR/.AT 13Z...THE 32F WET BULB LINE EXTENDS FROM W/SW OF THE ATLANTAMETRO AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GA...PARALLELINGI-16 TO NEAR MACON/STATESBORO GA TO NEAR-IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OFTHE CAROLINAS.THE 12Z OBSERVED /PARTIAL/ SOUNDING FROM ATLANTA GA SAMPLED A WARMLAYER AROUND 850 MB/1200 M AGL CONDUCIVE FOR FULL/PARTIAL MELTINGATOP A SUB-FREEZING /AROUND -4C AT 500 M/ NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THISSCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SOME SLEET WITHIN ACORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GA INCLUDINGI-20 INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC. THE 12Z OBSERVEDSOUNDING FROM CHARLESTON SC FEATURED A FULL-MELTING CONDUCIVE LAYERBASED AROUND 500 M ATOP A VERY SHALLOW NEAR/SUB-FREEZING LAYER.TO THE NORTH...SNOW /WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN/ SHOULD GRADUALLYINCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEASTMODERATE SNOW BECOMING MORE COMMON PARTICULARLY ACROSS EXTREMENORTHEAST GA/FAR NORTHERN SC INTO NC INCLUDING THE I-85 CORRIDOR.GIVEN INCREASING SATURATION/UVV AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE DENDRITICGROWTH PROFILE...LOCALIZED SNOW RATES COULD REACH 1 IN/HR BY LATEMORNING...GUYER.. 02/12/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not feeling good about it here in WNC foothills the more eastern track isn't good for us. The radar doesn't look good either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leedev Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pressure falls and likely location of lows is physics. Physics trump models in my mind -- unless we have something in the interim that'll move the greatest pressure falls further west over time (like an eroding high) I imagine that's a very good look at how this storm will unfold this afternoon and into this evening. I guess models aren't based on physics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at the diving shortwave now entering Kansas... the fun is only getting started everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I guess models aren't based on physics lol They are but they can only guess what will happen. What is being referred to is that the current physics will trump a models guess every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR is showing one inch per hour rates at hour 8 over CLT. Hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You have not been around this block before then... I'm not feeling good about it here in WNC foothills the more eastern track isn't good for us. The radar doesn't look good either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I guess models aren't based on physics lol I guess I should say that observation trumps models, sorry about that. The models have to get a lot of things right to get to the right answer. They have to predict the pressure fall locations first in order to get the path right. Now that we've observed where the pressure falls are the really hard part is done, physics will do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not feeling good about it here in WNC foothills the more eastern track isn't good for us. The radar doesn't look good either Yeah, the radar is worrisome, heavier returns in upstate are down around Greenwood to Laurens, not the 85 corridor. I am north of 85 and getting steady snow but nothing that would add up to 8-12 inches. I am hoping the enhancement as the storm goes negative tilt will really kick in for us foothills people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are but they can only guess what will happen. What is being referred to is that the current physics will trump a models guess every time. Crossing my fingers that current physics will save the Triangle from an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does a shift in the SLP necessarily result in a shift in the attendant 850 and 700 troughs? Concerned mainly because it is those that are dictating the icy morass in the central Piedmont of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lol let the weenie worry being. Guys as Phil pointed out the fireworks are just about to go off. In 12 hours WNC is going to be starting to get snowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Too bad it isnt all snow for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at the diving shortwave now entering Kansas... the fun is only getting started everyone Phil, that is very easy to see. Can you explain a little about how the interaction will affect the development of precipitation today. Will this be part of the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Too bad it isnt all snow for my area What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Phil, that is very easy to see. Can you explain a little about how the interaction will affect the development of precipitation today. Will this be part of the phase? He already did. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42798-the-big-one-observation/?p=2773951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leedev Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I guess I should say that observation trumps models, sorry about that. The models have to get a lot of things right to get to the right answer. They have to predict the pressure fall locations first in order to get the path right. Now that we've observed where the pressure falls are the really hard part is done, physics will do its thing. no need for apologies, I think my sarcasm was bit condescending. Sorry about that BigWeather. This one is on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Phil, that is very easy to see. Can you explain a little about how the interaction will affect the development of precipitation today. Will this be part of the phase? The phase with the Kansas energy is what puts this thing into high gear and bomb the low near the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All good leedev, I didn't take it that way at all. Man this wait for it to begin is killing me. Radar filling in slowly, with the characteristic U encircling the area as it always seems to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Phil, that is very easy to see. Can you explain a little about how the interaction will affect the development of precipitation today. Will this be part of the phase? Yes this is part of the phase. You can see the first s/w impulse ejecting out of TX and causing the precipitation you all are currently experiencing. However, when the second s/w dropping into KS merges with the first s/w, it will spawn a very dynamic and negatively tilted 500 hPa low. The end result is that you get a structure very similar to what was seen in March 2009 over the area, a nice deformation zone forms N and E of the surface cyclone. GSP did an excellent case study with that event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2009/1-2March2009Snow/1-2MarchSnow.html Here you can see the nice "comma head" that everyone talks about so much in associated with baroclinic cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 What model is that? See the bottom of the image.. it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 See the bottom of the image.. it's the NAM My machine had issues displaying the image and chopped off the left part so I couldn't read it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 to those naysayers in nc dont worry about the radar, it is fine and will fill in. people are freaking in ga cos the news reports keep emphasizing "this is just the beginning the worst (or best depending on your point of view ) is still to come" the are talking about it snowing here ALL DAY. hang in there. you can really see the wedge eating at the precip, and no wonder. my temp is down to 20.5 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Too bad it isnt all snow for my area Hmmm.. around here that should be at least mostly snow. That's the best one yet. I-85 definitely looks to be the northern extent of possible mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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