packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Matthew East's snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 its rare to post a forecast but this one i just cant pass up: for those upstream dont fret. my forecast has snow heavy at times, accumulation 8-12 today. that is unreal edited to add: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php if those heavy echos north and west of atl can hold together and not get eaten up by the wedge some pretty heavy snow could be in n ga and the upstate later this morning. looks like its shifting to the north, lets hope the cad erosion of the moisture stops soon haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 if i was reading the RAP correctly with some bleary eyes it looks like ne ga and the upstate are now in the 1" mark for qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My video update for the storm at 6:40 a.m. this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSP has done a great job updating the snowfall map. Here is the new one. Minor adjustment is the time stamp of 6:45am .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 645 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE SLOWER ONSETOF SNOW THAN EXPECTED ACRS THE UPSTATE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE ON THISUPDATE EXCEPT FOR NEW AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE 12Z TAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My video update for the storm at 6:40 a.m. this morning. RAP P-types only shows one hour of mixing for CLT. We'll see if it's correct I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR has precip types switching over in CLT at 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not that it really matters now, but 00z EURO put's down 2.01qpf for me! I can only hope!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Raysweather.com with their new snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can notice on the radar the upper level low well represented in Alabama now, and set up the deformation band . Very interesting to see and watch unfold. It keeps the precip blossoming over GA and points east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CAE's discussion.......ouch .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION.STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATESSOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THISMORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN UPALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND DEEPENING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WVLOOP SHOWS WELL DEFINED S/W MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVERVALLEY THIS MORNING AND NRN STREAM S/W TRYING TO PHASE WITH SRNSTREAM ENERGY.88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATIONSTRETCHING FROM MS/AL ACROSS GA AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SC THISMORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING THIS MORNING AND EXPECTPRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURSCOVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. REPORTS INDICATE MAINLYFREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH A MIXTURE OFSNOW/SLEET NORTH OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGEFROM THE UPPER 20S AROUND LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES TOTHE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE CSRA. STILL EXPECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHMIDLANDS...1 TO 2 INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND DAYBREAK. ICINGHAS ALREADY BEGAN TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDSOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE DURING THEDAY AND NIGHT.THROUGH THE DAY...THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSESWILL PHASE TOGETHER AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. MODELS TRY TOINDICATE THAT SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC ATOPTHE VERY COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL TRY TO WARM THE SURFACELAYER TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATERTODAY. HOWEVER...LI FIELDS INDICATES THAT STRONG COLD AIR DAMMINGWILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENT. ANYUNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO SPECIFICS APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLECHANGE ON THE IMPACT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. ITAPPEARS THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES INSOME LOCATIONS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS VERY DANGEROUS. MUCH OF THISPRECIPITATION...EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODS OF SLEET EARLY IN THEEVENT...WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MAJOR ICESTORM...WITH HIGH IMPACTS...FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECASTAREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks the same, - a little adjustment in the upstate. Thanks for posting. Raysweather.com with their new snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol the euro is insane. i made it to hickory for this one. if we really get 16 inches of snow that will be biggest snow of my life. the only reason i was dumb enough to make the drive home last night was thinking this could be something extremely rare. hopefully it is. i just i hope i can get back to raleigh this weekend. Oh man, good to have you back for this one. Just like old times now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh man, good to have you back for this one. Just like old times now All we need now is jetstreak and acweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh man, good to have you back for this one. Just like old times now haha definitely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Update on 700mb 10k Foot Temperatures http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Have been steadily warming overnight. Hopefully will not cause an issue, but the -6c line has moved northward from down in South Carolina to up into NW North Carolina over night. It's all about the temperature profiles today. Soundings will rule. It's a lot more complicated than just the 700mb temperature profile, but a general quick glance indication is that -6 is preferred at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The ruc just looks better and better. Anybody on the nw side of the 850 low gets hammered! It has it tracking up i-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 And off the 9Z at 18, the 850 is still in Central GA.. The ruc just looks better and better. Anybody on the nw side of the 850 low gets hammered! It has it tracking up i-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 AFD out of Blackburg The developing winter storm is coming together in classic form. Maps...charts...rules of thumb...Indian lore all point to the same conclusion. The ring around the moon...the rustling Oak leaves...your grandmas aching knee in addition to the computer models which the meteorologists and weather fanatics stare at endlessly...all scream look-out. If you choose to ignore the sensible clues you are just not listening. Local folks will tell you this is where our true winter storms come from...Wisdom at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Notice where the pressure falls are. I think that is where you will see the low pressure consolidate and move. I think it will be a little east of the ECMWF track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Interesting analysis with regards to the pressure falls and thanks for the maps, Allan. A little east of the Euro track would be golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Notice where the pressure falls are. I think that is where you will see the low pressure consolidate and move. I think it will be a little east of the ECMWF track. I agree. The euro track is funny. But just like I was thinking yesterday it will stay offshore. The path of least resistance would be along the trough axis just off shore. You think with the baroclonic zone offshore near the highest sst temps will allow this to go boom .... stronger than the models been indicating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Notice where the pressure falls are. I think that is where you will see the low pressure consolidate and move. I think it will be a little east of the ECMWF track. I don't see it in the SPC analysis. I think any suggestion that the Euro track is too far to the East is premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I agree. The euro track is funny. But just like I was thinking yesterday it will stay offshore. The path of least resistance would be along the trough axis just off shore. You think with the baroclonic zone offshore near the highest sst temps will allow this to go boom .... stronger than the models been indicating? Certainly possible. I have been favoring a slightly off shore track the whole time offshore of SC/GA and then across the Outer Banks. The coastal plain track of the Euro just seemed to far west to me with an established wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Certainly possible. I have been favoring a slightly off shore track the whole time offshore of SC/GA and then across the Outer Banks. The coastal plain track of the Euro just seemed to far west to me with an established wedge. FWIW, this am JB said it goes over the Pamlico Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't see it in the SPC analysis. I think any suggestion that the Euro track is too far to the East is premature. Well this is a2 hour change map vs the 3 hour change map on unisys and you can see the -1 there east of SC, which matches up with Unisys map which has a finer contour interval. I dont think it is premature if you have always thought the Euro track was too far west like I have. Doesnt mean I will be right of course, but we shall sees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well this is a2 hour change map vs the 3 hour change map on unisys and you can see the -1 there east of SC, which matches up with Unisys map which has a finer contour interval. I dont think it is premature if you have always thought the Euro track was too far west like I have. Doesnt mean I will be right of course, but we shall sees Does that mean less snow and sleet for Atlanta and rest of GA/SC... looks like precip is ending in AL earlier than progged? Or are we waiting for dynamics and frontogenic forcing to reblossom radar later today> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well this is a2 hour change map vs the 3 hour change map on unisys and you can see the -1 there east of SC, which matches up with Unisys map which has a finer contour interval. I dont think it is premature if you have always thought the Euro track was too far west like I have. Doesnt mean I will be right of course, but we shall sees FWIW, in the Jan 2000 storm, Greg Fishel was on the air talking about this exact same thing...about pressure falls, in the context of where the storm would go. He was correct during that event. I don't know if this situation is comparable to that one exactly, but the physics should still be the same, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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