The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

[Met1985]

The 06z NAM just came in warmer.  Toss it.  Time to ride the UKMET and Euro...  I hope.

No need in betting against the Euro. It has been the best model by leaps and bounds so far.

[superjames1992]

No need in betting against the Euro. It has been the best model by leaps and bounds so far.

 

The NAM still hammers you guys.  There's little doubt you guys get hammered at this point.

 

The NAM probably hammers me, too, with a ton of sleet and a changeover back to snow with the deformation band.  Since I'm up, I'll wait it out and chalk his up as the worst-case scenario for MBY.

[superjames1992]

One thing is that the surface low is a lot weaker on the NAM compared to the Euro and UKMET.  At hr 24, the NAM has an elongated 1008 mb LP while the Euro at the same time has the low bombing out to 999 mb.

 

One of the models is way off there and I'm betting the NAM is the more likely candidate.  It's still not in its wheelhouse yet (its wheelhouse is hr -1).

[Buddy1987]

One thing is that the surface low is a lot weaker on the NAM compared to the Euro and UKMET.  At hr 24, the NAM has an elongated 1008 mb LP while the Euro at the same time has the low bombing out to 999 mb.

 

One of the models is way off there and I'm betting the NAM is the more likely candidate.  It's still not in its wheelhouse yet (its wheelhouse is hr -1).

Granted the orientation of heaviest moisture has shifted westward from hours 18-24 whereas once again it has that signal for the piedmont and foothills. Looks to be a doozy. Low at 24 hours looks to be over inland coastal areas of outer banks.

[NEGa]

Do SREF plumes matter at this point, or are we better off just following radar trends?

i think at this point i am done with the models but may glance at sref or rap at some point.  once it starts, the cold temps are here and i can see radar lit up from ne ga thru lousiana, its game on

[Met1985]

The NAM still hammers you guys.  There's little doubt you guys get hammered at this point.

 

The NAM probably hammers me, too, with a ton of sleet and a changeover back to snow with the deformation band.  Since I'm up, I'll wait it out and chalk his up as the worst-case scenario for MBY.

Lol no doubt. This storm is going  to be far reaching. Hope you get hammered man.

[BullCityWx]

The 0Z Euro is even a little bit heavier for much of N and C GA qpfwise. The qpf for wave #2 is now up to a whopping 2" for AHN/MCN and averages near 1.75" for the ATL area!!

Continues to the coldest model, too.

[DaculaWeather]

I can't believe that people aren't listening to Phil more. 

[phil882]

Most of the busting seems to be on the western portion of the SE... e.g. Huntsville was suppose to be all snow, and they are rain/sleet currently (though since they don't have nearly as much WAA there, dynamical cooling when the rates pick up can probably get them isothermal)

[phil882]

So based on what you're seeing it would appear almost the worst case scenario for some of us thinking of snow; instead of that it will be ice then heavy wet snow, not a good combination. 

 

For a good portion of GA that seems like a very plausible yet dangerous possibility. 

[BullCityWx]

Phil, looks like the euro has CLT all snow until 7PM. Plausible? Hopefully. Thoughts?

[superjames1992]

I don't even know why I'm looking at it at this point, but it looks like the 06z GFS got completely butchered by convective feedback.

4dvar models FTW. Time to ride the Euro/UKMET/GGEM all the way to the finish line.

[superjames1992]

WOW, the 06z RGEM is amazing!!! Almost identical to the 00z Euro!

4dvar.

[DJShay12]

WOW, the 06z RGEM is amazing!!! Almost identical to the 00z Euro!

4dvar.

You mean as far as snow totals? All the local news channels are still predicting 3 to 6 or 4 to 7 for CLT. Does it look like it will be significantly more? Brad Panovich of wcnc just raised his "snow meter" to the highest level ever, a 9. 

[WxJordan]

My final accumulation map....

[packfan98]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

VALID 12Z WED FEB 12 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 15 2014
....
THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
COAST... AS THE PHASED TROUGH ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. THE
GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CLASSIC COASTAL
WINTER STORM BUT STILL DIFFER ON SOME OF THE IMPORTANT DETAILS...
MAINLY THE CRITICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND IF THE TREMENDOUS
ATLANTIC INFLOW HAS AN IMPACT OR NOT ON THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. LIKE
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS... WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND/COMPROMISE
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND SREF MEAN ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES BUT
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/SREF MEAN FOR THERMAL PROFILES... AS THE GFS
APPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME FEEDBACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THAT IS NOT ONLY IMPACTING THERMALS BUT KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS LOWER
OVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS WPC STILL EXPECTS A HEALTHY AXIS OF
HEAVY DEFORMATION/DYNAMIC COOLING SNOWFALL JUST WEST OF I95 OR
MORE SNOW FOR DC/BALT UP THROUGH ERN PA INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

[griteater]

Euro Ensemble mean storm total precip is around 1.6 for Greenville, SC, Charlotte, Greensboro areas...big dog

[packfan98]

Euro Ensemble mean storm total precip is around 1.6 for Greenville, SC, Charlotte, Greensboro areas...big dog

 

Sounds great!  I'm assuming the track is the same as the OP at this point?

[griteater]

Sounds great!  I'm assuming the track is the same as the OP at this point?

Haven't looked in detail, but 850 temps looked similar, yes

[WxJordan]

Sounding from UNC-Asheville... The atmosphere is starting to moisten up, and snow should start falling in the Carolinas soon. Also notice the southeast wind from this storm. This should help bank moisture up against the mountains as the storm pivots up the coast.

[FallsLake]

For all you RDU folks the storm is still on and it's going to be bad. RAH has updated my back yard grid to include 3-6 inches of snow/sleet and upwards of .3" of ice accrual. Just SE to me towards Wake Forest the snow totals drop to 3-4 but that's because of more sleet mixing in earlier. So basically varying amounts of p-types and you travers the Triangle(but all as bad as the others). One thing to note: 1-3" of the forecasted snow, comes from the deformation band on Thursday.
RAH's discussion:

EDIT: NWS grid has my back yard at 3-9" and Wake Forest at 3-6"

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...SIGNIFICANT IF NOT CRIPPLING WINTER STORM EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STRONG THIS MORNING AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR
A TREMENDOUS WINTER STORM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FROM 9AM THIS MORNING THROUGH
6PM THURSDAY.

A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE COMING TOGETHER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY IN THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO AMIDST QUITE A BIT
ON CONVECTION BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN EXPANSIVE PRECIP
SHIELD ALREADY EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO ACROSS CENTRAL SC...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE COLD DRY AIRMASS
EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM A 1034MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
UPSTATE NEW YORK. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE REPORTS FROM SC ARE FREEZING
RAIN. LATER TODAY... AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DCVA...WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BACK
BUILDING OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA....WITH THE
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS WELL AND TRACKING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...THE GFS FURTHEST EAST AND THE NAM A BIT TOO FAST. WPC`S
PREFERRED TRACK IS JUST EAST OF THE ECMWF...REACHING THE PAMLICO
SOUND BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY...WHILE DECREASING...STILL
LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DOMINATE PTYPES ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE ARE VERY
CONFIDENT IN THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS MAINLY SNOW BY AROUND 10AM
THEN REACHING HWY 64 BY AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE THE LOW-LEVELS
SATURATE...THING SHOULD FILL IN RATHER QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
AN INTENSE CORE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
DRIVE A WARM NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND A CHANGEOVER TO
A MIX OF MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS AREAS
FROM LAURINBURG TO WILSON BY AROUND 5PM. DEEPER INTO THE COLD
AIR...THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR...BUT WE EXPECT A MIX
OF PTYPES IN THE VICINITY OF THE US 1 CORRIDOR BY 8-10PM.
HOWEVER...IT IS DURING THIS PERIOD PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME HEAVY PRECIP BANDING NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IN THE
VICINITY OF STRONG FGEN AROUND 850MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KRDU
SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER...SUGGESTING PRECIP RATES MAY BE ABLE
TO DRIVE PTYPE BACK TO SNOW AT TIMES BEFORE CHANGING OVER THE
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IF THERE ARE ANY AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...IT IS WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT....AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WARM NOSE TO REACH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. ALL MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF A DRY SLOT MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON PRECIP RATES AND CHANGE PTYPE TO
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE WARM NOSE AND POSSIBLE MIXING OF PTYPES OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AGAIN...ALL MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRIAD...WHICH WOULD REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS.
STRONG FORCING SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP TO MOSTLY SNOW...BUT THE LOSS
OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE LATE TONIGHT WILL INEVITABLY
CUT OF THE SNOW AND CHANGE THINGS OVER TO FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HWY 64 WHERE PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED. EVEN IF TEMPS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WETBULB TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS WILL FALL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP.
AFTER THAT....THEY WILL HOLD MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...FLIRTING WITH 32/33 DEGREES EAST OF I-95 LATER TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND BRISK AT TIMES...15-20MPH AND
GUSTING INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT.

BASED ON ALL OF THIS...THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS/IMPACTS ARE MOSTLY THE
SAME: SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF 6-8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRUAL IN THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AND TRAVEL
WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.


&&

[strongwxnc]

Grit, I assume the 1.6" total is the same as you go N of GSP and W of KCTL.

You are Not even in the state and you are posting data. Thanks man!

 

Euro Ensemble mean storm total precip is around 1.6 for Greenville, SC, Charlotte, Greensboro areas...big dog

[nchighcountrywx]

GSP 4:30am Update

[griteater]

Grit, I assume the 1.6" total is the same as you go N of GSP and W of KCTL.

You are Not even in the state and you are posting data. Thanks man!

what can I say, I'm a snow whore, lol

 

yeah, looks like western NC generally around 1.5

[nchighcountrywx]

FXUS62 KGSP 120841

AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

341 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE TODAY AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS UPON REACHING THE EASTERN

CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR

WEATHER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE

SHAPE...WITH SHARPENING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PLAINLY SEEN ON

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVR ERN TX...AND BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE

DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STATES ON IR. MEANWHILE...A 1035 MB SFC

HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WITH STRENGTHENING WEDGE

ACRS THE CAROLINAS TO ERN GA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP SHIELD

FILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING ACRS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST

REGION...EXTENDING N TO THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY AND EAST INTO THE

MIDLANDS. CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING IS SUPPLYING PLENTY OF COLD DRY

AIR ACRS THE CWFA. AND THE 06Z GSO/FFC SNDGS ARE IN LINE WITH THE

MODEL PROFILES IN THE REGION. SO EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH

PREVIOUS THINKING...AND THE FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS NOT

CHANGED MUCH.

EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE

MORNING...STARTING BEFORE DAYBREAK ACRS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE

CWFA. AS THE UPR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TODAY...STRONG ISENT LIFT AND

UPR DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HEAVY PRECIP. USING THE TOP-DOWN

APPROACH WITH THE NAM/GFS...STILL EXPECT MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS MOST OF

THE AREA...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM I-85 SOUTH. A

SLIVER OF PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACRS ELBERT TO

GREENWOOD TODAY...AS A WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTH.

GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM...EXPECT THE STRONGEST

Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO CROSS RIGHT OVER THE CWFA THIS

EVENING...WITH THE 850 MB LOW ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS TRACK

SHUD SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW RATES IN A SW-NE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW

OF I-85 TO THE BLUE RIDGE...EXTENDING TO THE NW NC PIEDMONT. TOTALS

WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS. THIS TRACK MAY ALSO RESULT

IN SOME CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY (CSI) FOR THUNDERSNOW.

STILL NOT SEEING ENUF CHC TO ADD TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AT THE

SFC...LOW PRES SHUD START TO TAKE SHAPE INVOF THE N-CENTRAL GULF BY

18Z...THEN GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND LIFT NE ACRS NRN FL/SRN GA THIS

EVENING. THIS SHUD CAUSE NE WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 MPH WITH

GUSTS TO 25 MPH RANGE. POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE

COMBINATION OF WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW (AND ICE IN THE SE FRINGE

COUNTIES).

TONIGHT...THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE

CWFA...BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ACRS MOST OF THE

AREA THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AS A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PIVOT THRU THE

AREA. THICKNESSES WILL DROP UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR LOW...SO

MOST AREAS SHUD SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW. THE FCST STORM TOTAL SNOW

AND ICE HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS. GENERALLY GOING

WITH 8-10"+ NORTH AND WEST OF I-85...5-8" JUST SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE

SLEET/FZRA WILL MIX IN AT TIMES...AND GENERALLY 2-4" FROM ELBERT TO

UNION NC...WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE FZRA/SLEET. ICE ACCUMS OF

0.25-0.5" EXPECTED IN THOSE COUNTIES...WITH UP TO 0.75"+ POSSIBLE IN

SRN ELBERT TO SRN GREENWOOD. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED

NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. OVERALL...ROADS WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS TO

IMPASSIBLE BY THIS EVENING ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH POWER OUTAGES

MOST WIDESPREAD PROBABLY IN THE ICE ZONES IN THE SOUTH. THE WINTER

STORM WARNING SEGMENTS LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES

ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM EST...THE DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DRIVING THE WINTER

STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING...WITH

THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. WILL

FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS FEATURING A CLOSED H5

LOW CENTER CROSSING THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE UPPER DIVERGENCE

SLOWER TO CLEAR TO THE EAST THU MORNING...AND ALSO ALLOW DEEP LAYER

Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO DWELL OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST

OF INTERSTATE 77 THROUGH NOON. GIVEN THE FAIRLY ROBUST LAPSE RATES

ALOFT...STRONG CONTINUED FORCING WITH THE TROUGH...AND SOME DEGREE

OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSING THE NRN HALF...WILL BOOST

SNOW ACCUMS SLIGHTLY IN WRN NC THU MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE

OF THE NRN NC MTNS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ONCE DRYING ENSUES THU

AFTN...BUT RECOVERY AND MELTING MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN THE SNOW PACK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH NOTHING

MORE THAN A TRANSIENT LOBE OF UPSLOPE MOISTURE IN THE BRISK WESTERLY

FLOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY DAYBREAK FRI. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN

SOME INCREASED CLOUDS. A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE

NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT. THE BEST

FORCING...BRIEFLY DEEP MOISTURE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE

CLIPPER WILL BE FRI EVENING. WILL INCREASE RA/SN CHANCES

THROUGHOUT...WITH MTN SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ADVISORY

CRITERIA IN THE WESTERN MTNS FRI NIGHT. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z

ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS

AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM MINNESOTA AT 18Z SATURDAY

TO REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS

ALL QPF RESPONSE BRIEFLY OVER NRN MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF NC EARLY

SUNDAY. THE OLD 12Z TUE ECMWF HAS A BROAD QPF RESPONSE OVER OUR

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE EC THEN MOVES ALL OFF THE

CAROLINA COAST BEFORE 00Z MONDAY. THE CANADIAN IS MORE GFS LIKE WITH

ONLY PRECIP MOSTLY OVER NRN AREAS THEN QUICKLY PUSHING IT EAST. ANY

LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW OVER

WESTERN NC AND IF ANY FALLS OVER NE GA AND THE UPSTATE WOULD BE

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. THE BRAND NEW ECMWF IS MORE GFS LIKE SO CONFINING

MOST LIGHT PRECIP TO NC IS BEST.

A CAD HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY

MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOW A LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WIND

FLOW IN THIS REGIME. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE REASONABLE WIND PATTERN

WITH THE EXPECTED NE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO MORE

SOUTHERLY LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING COOLER MONDAY WITH THE AFFECT OF NE FLOW

FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH THE CAD AND CLOUDINESS. WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. EITHER

ALL OR NEARLY ALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THERE IS ANY LEFT

OVER PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING THICKNESSES AND ESPECIALLY

IF FRONT PASSES SOONER IN NIGHT TIME...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW. HIGH

PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER BEHIND THIS COLD

FRONT INTO MID WEEK. BRAND NEW ECMWF IS NOW DELAYING COLD FRONT

ARRIVING ABOUT 12 HOURS...AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD CHANGE

THE CURRENT FORECAST. OF COURSE...THAT IS NEAR A WEEK AWAY AND HAVE

PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISE THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY

WITH GRADUAL MILDER WEATHER UNTIL BEING ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT A

CATEGORY TUESDAY IN DOWNSLOPE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WHILE MTNS WILL

BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AT KCLT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE 06Z TAFS. TIMING OF

WINTRY PRECIP MOVING IN IS STILL ON TARGET FOR THE EARLY MORNING

HOURS. EXPECT PERHAPS A MIXTURE OF -SNPL AT ONSET...BUT SHUD

TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z. SNOW RATES ARE

EXPECTED TO CRANK UP SUCH THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF 1/4SM VSBY IS

PROBABLY LIKELY THIS AFTN. I HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY WITH 1/2SM IN

MODERATE SNOW. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A TRANSITION LINE OF PL AND

FZRA BEGINNING TO PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACRS NRN

FL. I HAVE BEEFED UP WINDS FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ONCE

CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR/IFR...EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THRU 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT DISCUSSION ABOVE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FCST

THINKING. HAVE DROPPED VSBY TO 1/2M DURING PERIOD OF EXPECTED

HEAVIEST SNOW RATES. THE UPSTATE SITES IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY

SEEN 1/4SM AT TIMES. A TRANSITION LINE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

WILL APPROACH THE UPSTATE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN

AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME IFR/MVFR STRATUS LINGERING ACRS THE

UPSTATE AND IN THE MTN VLYS. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THOSE

CLOUDS...BUT THINGS SHUD QUICKLY GO TO MVFR/IFR BY 12Z...AS PRECIP

STARTS TO MOVE IN. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AS LOW

PRES DEEPENS ACRS NRN FL. WINDS ARE A BIT TRICKY AT KAVL...AS COLD

AIR DAMMING SHUD SUPPORT A SE WIND...BUT ONCE LOW GETS FAR ENUF

NE...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN OUT OF THE N AND BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THU...BUT

SHUD IMPROVE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE OF THE

AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...AND MAY

BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS/PRECIP TO KAVL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS

EXPECTED FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z

KCLT HIGH 100% MED 70% MED 79% HIGH 90%

KGSP MED 63% LOW 46% MED 61% MED 79%

KAVL MED 62% LOW 41% LOW 50% HIGH 83%

KHKY HIGH 100% MED 72% LOW 50% HIGH 87%

KGMU MED 62% LOW 45% MED 63% HIGH 85%

KAND MED 61% LOW 59% HIGH 86% HIGH 86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING

WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE

HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE

FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY FEB 12TH...

AVL...2.8 IN 2010

CLT...5.1 IN 1899

GSP...5.0 IN 1895

[HKY_WX]

lol the euro is insane. i made it to hickory for this one. if we really get 16 inches of snow that will be biggest snow of my life. the only reason i was dumb enough to make the drive home last night was thinking this could be something extremely rare. hopefully it is. i just i hope i can get back to raleigh this weekend.

[strongwxnc]

The bold was awesome to read this morning. Steady as she goes...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014


&&
 06Z GSO/FFC SNDGS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
MODEL PROFILES IN THE REGION. SO EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING...AND THE FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH.
 

[burgertime]

The bold was awesome to read this morning. Steady as she goes...

 

Clearly they are not buying into the NAM at all. 

[jburns]

lol the euro is insane. i made it to hickory for this one. if we really get 16 inches of snow that will be biggest snow of my life. the only reason i was dumb enough to make the drive home last night was thinking this could be something extremely rare. hopefully it is. i just i hope i can get back to raleigh this weekend.

 

You'll have no trouble getting back to Raleigh. The interstates should be good by later Fri.

[strongwxnc]

Seems that way.

Clearly they are not buying into the NAM at all. 

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=SPSGSP&e=201402121118

 

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-121530-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS
618 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...MAJOR WINTER STORM GETTING UNDERWAY...

LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL START TO FALL MORE STEADILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NORTH CAROLINA...FROM FOREST CITY TO
THE CHARLOTTE AREA...THROUGH 10 AM. THE SNOW WILL THEN EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON. EXPECT THE
SNOWFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RATES COULD REACH AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.