The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

SouthernWx2 · February 12, 2014

Anyone in the Walton/Morgan/Newton areas have a temp reading? I'm near social circle, rain coming down...been hovering at 32/33 since 5:30....nothing appearing to freeze yet....watching burns up totals now. I'm assuming local mets are gonna ride the doc home...

Here's the UGA mesonet.....it updates every 15 minutes.

http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT

Pilotwx · February 12, 2014

Looks to me this may be a 24hr event or longer

jacobr57 · February 12, 2014

Is it just me, or does the radar look like precip could begin much earlier than expected?

Smokinjoe · February 12, 2014

Fascinating. I'm almost shooting for a 2" event just for the fact we're going to be powerless either way.

2.0" ZR...

Temperatures start out in the mid-20s, but rise to around 31-32 by the end of the event. You might sleet to start, but 850s rise to around 8C at one point.

On a meteorologically interesting note and to highlight the temperature gradient, Greenville registers 11C at 850 mb at hr 36 while it's snowing from the I-85 corridor-westward. Cape Hatteras probably hits 70 at the surface at the height, too.

HKY18 · February 12, 2014

Looks like foothills get hammered. Based on the snow map if GSP stays all snow it would break the all time record of 14in.!!

NEGa · February 12, 2014

Is it just me, or does the radar look like precip could begin much earlier than expected?

it started here about 2-3 hours or so ahead of schedule. i was about to try again to take a nap or sleep a little looked outside one last time and saw light snow (been doing it since about 1ish or so i think). needless to say i am wide awake now :snowman:

MidlothianWX · February 12, 2014

Good luck to all of you. Looks like an exciting event lies ahead. A blend of guidance seems to point toward Richmond starting off as snow and then switching over to ZR for a period of time. My best bet is for 4-8" totals going from east to west. There is quite a bit of uncertainty though and those numbers could certainly bust low or high. The absolute best-case scenario would probably be around or just under a foot west of the city and 8-10" east toward the airport. This assumes the slp tracks slightly east of the Euro depiction and/or the initial batch of precip overperforms.

Just a quick bit of climo information: RIC has not *oficially* recorded over 11" of snow from an event since the Feb. 1983 coastal storm. The current period is therefore quite anomalous (these events occur approximately once every 10-15 years), although slightly less so when evidence is considered for the argument that the true airport totals during the Jan. 1996 and Jan. 2000 storms were closer to a foot or more.

negative-nao · February 12, 2014

Special Weather Statement
GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-121000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
113 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...

OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING. AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FREEZE ON
SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREE BRANCHES...POWER
LINES AND PARKED AUTOMOBILES. ONCE RAIN BEGINS TO FREEZE...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ICE STORM WARNINGS AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE REGION. EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

Ga Snohound · February 12, 2014

The wedge is clearly driving it home into metro Atl .....anyone feel the colder scenario depicted by euro could keep eastern suburbs (north of i20) to Athens in sn/ip thereby limiting zr amounts currently being discussed by local tv mets??

Shawn · February 12, 2014

Well guys. This is turning to ZR more than snow and sleet fast imby.. close to KCAE. heavy precip on the horizon.. faster system than some model guidance...

Regardless; I probably won't have power by morning... driveway already getting ice/slick.

I'll be back sometime. I hope. Michelle; we are in for a wicked storm if you blend the Euro and NAM. I get at least 2.3 inches of ZR doing that. Lets hope heavy rates will kill it.

superjames1992 · February 12, 2014

Well guys. This is turning to ZR more than snow and sleet fast imby.. close to KCAE. heavy precip on the horizon.. faster system than some model guidance...

Regardless; I probably won't have power by morning... driveway already getting ice/slick.

I'll be back sometime. I hope. Michelle; we are in for a wicked storm if you blend the Euro and NAM. I get at least 2.3 inches of ZR doing that. Lets hope heavy rates will kill it.

Good luck, man...

I have to wonder with some of the piping hot 850s the Euro puts over you in the coming hours if that might make it down to the surface and you change over to rain. By then, the damage would probably be done, though.

Did you get any sleet to start?

Shawn · February 12, 2014

Good luck, man...

I have to wonder with some of the piping hot 850s the Euro puts over you in the coming hours if that might make it down to the surface and you change over to rain. By then, the damage would probably be done, though.

Did you get any sleet to start?

I started as snow grains; then flakes; then sleet; then rain; then sleet + rain.

Modeling was a tad bit off this way unless the "heavy" precip coming in is more sleet/snow mix due to higher rates and the column finally getting as cold as it can due to dewpoints.

phil882 · February 12, 2014

The wedge is clearly driving it home into metro Atl .....anyone feel the colder scenario depicted by euro could keep eastern suburbs (north of i20) to Athens in sn/ip thereby limiting zr amounts currently being discussed by local tv mets??

The Euro doesn't have 850 hPa dropping below freezing till after 18z right as the 850 hPa low passes by to the south and WAA shuts off.

dsaur · February 12, 2014

Well guys. This is turning to ZR more than snow and sleet fast imby.. close to KCAE. heavy precip on the horizon.. faster system than some model guidance...

Regardless; I probably won't have power by morning... driveway already getting ice/slick.

I'll be back sometime. I hope. Michelle; we are in for a wicked storm if you blend the Euro and NAM. I get at least 2.3 inches of ZR doing that. Lets hope heavy rates will kill it.

Good luck, Shawn. I'm sorry for what you are going to go through, but you'll survive, and except for the tremors your won't be changed so much As bad as it is, it is a wonder of nature, so just go ahead and be amazed. You can cuss a lot later. T

jtomlinwx · February 12, 2014

Okay, Raleigh gets 0.6" QPF or so before the changeover. 850s warm to 7C by hr 36, but crash back below 0C by hr 42. Insane... Raleigh does flip to 35 and rain after that...

Euro seems to be underestimating the surface cold. Already 2 or 3 degrees below forecast. Regardless, it will be close, no doubt.

SN_Lover · February 12, 2014

Euro seems to be underestimating the surface cold. Already 2 or 3 degrees below forecast. Regardless, it will be close, no doubt.

I can see the moon in Mooresville. The dew point must be really low at all levels.

Stormsfury · February 12, 2014

Special Weather Statement

GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-121000-

JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-

ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-

INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-

TIDAL BERKELEY-

113 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...

OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL

TO AROUND FREEZING. AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FREEZE ON

SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREE BRANCHES...POWER

LINES AND PARKED AUTOMOBILES. ONCE RAIN BEGINS TO FREEZE...TRAVEL

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ICE STORM WARNINGS AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT

FOR THE REGION. EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT

INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

how did I miss this statement. yes, it's 32 in Summerville, and most all areas just north of KCHS now, and has been some light precipitation. the Ice Storm warned areas are expecting .1" overnight, POSSIBLY up to .5" Wednesday and another .1" WED night. that's a grand total of up to .7" for Dorchester and Berkeley per ZFP CHS.

EDIT: KCHS 33 light rain, Summerville and Walterboro 32 MIX PCPN

Ga Snohound · February 12, 2014

Thanks for the info Phil. I was hopeful as snow totals increased that it might depict a cooler column in general vs. a changeover after damage is done........one can hope and pray I guess. This is one scenario where I wouldn't cry over getting dry slotted...

Shawn · February 12, 2014

Thanks for well wishes. I notice the SREF is trying to change us to rain at the end. Well, KCAE. Using the higher resolution maps shows me well into the 32 line for the entire event since I'm quite a ways west of that area.

If this ice storm is realised as some 2 inch+ models show; I will try to get some video of the utter devastation happening as the winds pick up and all my trees snap in half around here. I live on 100 acres and basically live on a civil war farm with TONS of pines and old hard wood etc. If I can safely get the video/sounds.. I will be sure to let you guys check it out as it should be intense.... might even make the news ...

Tony, I am absolutely screwed most likely. No way around that. If only these huge pecan tree limbs weren't over my roof I'd feel better. They have been breaking off all this year as a "sign" to me... due to heavy pecan weight... it was a sign to get them thinned man..

Here is the 00z NAM's ZR for KCAE... yes that does say 3.20 inches... you're aren't imagining things.

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================

140212/0800Z   8  06011KT  30.1F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.008    1:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01   18| 82|  0
140212/0900Z   9  04012KT  28.8F  SNPL    9:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.021    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.03   77| 23|  0
140212/1000Z  10  04014KT  27.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.072    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.08|| 0.10    0|  9| 91
140212/1100Z  11  05014KT  27.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.091    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.17|| 0.19    0| 10| 90
140212/1200Z  12  06014KT  27.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.081    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.26|| 0.27    0| 11| 89
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140212/1300Z  13  05015KT  27.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.109    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.37|| 0.38    0|  2| 98
140212/1400Z  14  04016KT  27.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.106    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.48|| 0.49    0|  0|100
140212/1500Z  15  05016KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.116    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.61|| 0.61    0|  0|100
140212/1600Z  16  06013KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.137    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.75|| 0.74    0|  1| 99
140212/1700Z  17  04014KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.156    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.91|| 0.90    0|  0|100
140212/1800Z  18  04016KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.154    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.07|| 1.05    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140212/1900Z  19  03017KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.165    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.25|| 1.22    0|  0|100
140212/2000Z  20  04015KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.202    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.46|| 1.42    0|  0|100
140212/2100Z  21  04014KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.197    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.67|| 1.62    0|  0|100
140212/2200Z  22  04013KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.173    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.85|| 1.79    0|  0|100
140212/2300Z  23  03013KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.175    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 2.03|| 1.97    0|  0|100
140213/0000Z  24  03012KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.226    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 2.27|| 2.19    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/0100Z  25  03012KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.209    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 2.49|| 2.40    0|  0|100
140213/0200Z  26  03011KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.15|| 0.142    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 2.64|| 2.54    0|  0|100
140213/0300Z  27  03010KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.123    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 2.77|| 2.67    0|  0|100
140213/0400Z  28  02010KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.128    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 2.90|| 2.79    0|  0|100
140213/0500Z  29  02010KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.181    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.09|| 2.97    0|  0|100
140213/0600Z  30  36009KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.045    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.14|| 3.02    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/0700Z  31  36010KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.15|| 3.03    0|  0|100
140213/0800Z  32  36010KT  29.9F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.15|| 3.03    0|  0|100
140213/0900Z  33  35009KT  29.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.17|| 3.04    0|  0|100
140213/1000Z  34  35008KT  29.2F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.005    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.17|| 3.05    0|  0|100
140213/1100Z  35  35009KT  28.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.17|| 3.05    0|  0|  0
140213/1200Z  36  33009KT  28.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.17|| 3.05    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1300Z  37  31009KT  29.2F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.18|| 3.05    0|  0|100
140213/1400Z  38  31010KT  30.5F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.19|| 3.07    0|  0|100
140213/1500Z  39  31010KT  31.5F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.20|| 3.08    0|  0|100
140213/1600Z  40  31010KT  32.3F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.20|| 3.09    0|  0|100
140213/1700Z  41  31011KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    7:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 3.20|| 3.09   71|  0| 29

Looking at current radar trends; I feel like this dark red (evil stuff) is going to end up a bit more North through my area.

Smokinjoe · February 12, 2014

Lengthened the warning from 7am-12

Winter Storm Warning Alert: ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

...A MAJOR ICE STORM WILL OCCUR...

.CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT COLD
AIR INTO OUR REGION AT LOW LEVELS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UP THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND COLD
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR
WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET WITH DANGEROUS ACCUMULATIONS OF
ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA EXPECT
TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MIDLANDS PLUS CSRA EXPECT SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION OF AROUND
1 INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...DANGEROUS WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS. THE SOUTH
CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND THE DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION HAVE URGED PEOPLE TO STAY OFF THE ROADWAYS. WITH
HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES...LIMBS AND POWERLINES...
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WILL DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE OUTAGES WILL
BE LENGTHY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. Instructions: A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MEETING WARNING CRITERIA IS LIKELY. WARNING CRITERIA IS AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR SLEET...OR AT LEAST 1/4 OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. IF YOU ENCOUNTER DOWNED POWER LINES...DO NOT TOUCH THE LINES BECAUSE YOU COULD BE ELECTROCUTED. REPORT DOWNED POWER LINES TO LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE POWER COMPANY. IF YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST TRAVEL YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING SAFETY TIPS. PLAN PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME. DRIVE SLOWLY AND LEAVE PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU. BRAKE GENTLY AND AVOID MAKING SUDDEN TURNS. BRING THE FOLLOWING WITH YOU IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED...FOOD AND WATER....BLANKET... WINDSHIELD SCRAPPER AND BRUSH...AND FIRST AID KIT. LET SOMEONE ELSE KNOW WHEN YOU WILL TRAVEL AND WHAT ROUTES YOU WILL TAKE. Target Area: Aiken
Bamberg
Barnwell
Calhoun
Chesterfield
Clarendon
Edgefield
Fairfield
Kershaw
Lancaster
Lee
Lexington
McCormick
Newberry
Orangeburg
Richland
Saluda
Sumter

phil882 · February 12, 2014

Thanks for the info Phil. I was hopeful as snow totals increased that it might depict a cooler column in general vs. a changeover after damage is done........one can hope and pray I guess. This is one scenario where I wouldn't cry over getting dry slotted...

Well the thing is the 2 meter temps WILL be below freezing... so yea my biggest concern for most of GA this morning before the afternoon and evening changeover is the freezing rain.

Winterhawk · February 12, 2014

Well the thing is the 2 meter temps WILL be below freezing... so yea my biggest concern for most of GA this morning before the afternoon and evening changeover is the freezing rain.

So based on what you're seeing it would appear almost the worst case scenario for some of us thinking of snow; instead of that it will be ice then heavy wet snow, not a good combination.

jacobr57 · February 12, 2014

Do SREF plumes matter at this point, or are we better off just following radar trends?

Shawn · February 12, 2014

Do SREF plumes matter at this point, or are we better off just following radar trends?

Radar and actual soundings over imagery.

jacobr57 · February 12, 2014

Radar and actual soundings over imagery.

I figured as much. For what it's worth though, it looks like the SREF totals will be higher once again.

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment · February 12, 2014

I figured as much. For what it's worth though, it looks like the SREF totals will be higher once again.

Are my eyes fooling me this late or is that a 14.70 inch mean on the 3Z SREF at Asheville?!?

superjames1992 · February 12, 2014

Do SREF plumes matter at this point, or are we better off just following radar trends?

The SREF plumes kind of suck here (7"... not really sucking, but still), so I'm going to toss them and follow a blend of Almighty UKMET and King Euro.

In all seriousness, my experience with the plumes has not been good in the past. The plumes aren't even building a consensus here, anyways. They're all over the place at 03z... Some show 12"+, some show less than 2" (I'm not sure how a model could spit out less than 2" here at this point...).

jacobr57 · February 12, 2014

Are my eyes fooling me this late or is that a 14.70 inch mean on the 3Z SREF at Asheville?!?

That looks correct to me. Now it's time to just wait and see how it plays out. Good luck everyone!

superjames1992 · February 12, 2014

The 06z NAM just came in warmer. Toss it. Time to ride the UKMET and Euro... I hope.

The NAM is significantly warmer. RDU barely gets anything before the changeover and GSO would be lucky to get 2"...

The NAM does hammer N AL, though.

EDIT: Well, 850s are collapsing by hr 20 and tons of precip is falling. The 850 line probably doesn't get north of Mt. Airy before it starts pivoting.

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment · February 12, 2014

The SREF plumes kind of suck here (7"... not really sucking, but still), so I'm going to toss them and follow a blend of Almighty UKMET and King Euro.

In all seriousness, my experience with the plumes has not been good in the past. The plumes aren't even building a consensus here, anyways. They're all over the place at 03z... Some show 12"+, some show less than 2" (I'm not sure how a model could spit out less than 2" here at this point...).

That's interesting. At Asheville there is only one member below 7 inches.

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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

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