GaWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 0Z Euro is even a little bit heavier for much of N and C GA qpfwise. The qpf for wave #2 is now up to a whopping 2" for AHN/MCN and averages near 1.75" for the ATL area!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 QPF Totals: GSO: 2.0" (probably all-snow, but it's very borderline for a few hours) INT: 2.0" (probably all-snow) MWK: 2.2" (Big Frosty is crushed......) GSP: 1.7-2.0" (All-snow) CLT: ~2.0" (Definitely mixing, but still crushed) RDU: 1.5" (First ~0.6" is snow) CAE: 2.0" This is the greatest Euro run of my life. Even if it's overdone........ Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BAMMM!! Mooresville ALL snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On Euro, for Charlotte airport, I've got 1.2 liquid equivalent snow til 9PM Wed, then 0.5 of sleet, then 0.3 of deformation band snow. I'm basing this off of timing of QPF with 850mb temps. So, rough estimate would be 9-12 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of sleet. Heaviest precip stripe is around 2.0 liquid equiv from Charlotte area NW through Winston and Mt. Airy and NE through Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The last Euro clown map that needs to be posted for North Carolina is the best...the scary part is that for those mostly west of I-77, that is a legit "all snow" map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Verbatim, per the warmest panel grit posted, looks like the battle zone for snow vs sleet (0 C vs 1 C) sets up right along a Gastonia-Corneilius-Sailsbury line for CLT metro, going to be a battle for those along and just north/west of 85 in this area to stay pure snow. Still in line for a good thump to start before a relatively short (for this long a duration storm) period of snow/sleet or all sleet mess and a departing shot of snow as the deform band pulls away going by James' pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the Euro verifies, it will easily make up for all the pathetic winters for the last few years. It would be our Snowmageddon from I-85 west. I can't believe what I just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WOW!!! I did not like the look of that warm panel on the EURO. Looks like Belmont, NC is going to have more mixing than previously expected. Do not get me wrong...I am thankful for what I can get. HOWEVER, if you have an HISTORIC STORM moving through, it would be nice to MAXIMIZE the qpf as snow. LMAO. THANK YOU SO MUCH SuperJames for keeping the CLT area peeps updated! MUCH appreciated!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 0Z Euro is even a little bit heavier for much of N and C GA qpfwise. The qpf for wave #2 is now up to a whopping 2" for AHN/MCN and averages near 1.75" for the ATL area!! Yes sir!! Its actually a degree or 2 colder at 2m down here. Looks like we go to 0c at around 10am tomorrow morning according to the euro. and well, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Verbatim, per the warmest panel grit posted, looks like the battle zone for snow vs sleet (0 C vs 1 C) sets up right along a Gastonia-Corneilius-Sailsbury line for CLT metro, going to be a battle for those along and just north/west of 85 in this area to stay pure snow. Still in line for a good thump to start before a relatively short (for this long a duration storm) period of snow/sleet or all sleet mess and a departing shot of snow as the deform band pulls away going by James' pbp Yeah, I think the key here is that there is going to be a big thump tomorrow aftn. Charlotte gets 0.8 liq equiv of all snow from 1PM to 7PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheech78 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 QPF Totals: GSO: 2.0" (probably all-snow, but it's very borderline for a few hours) INT: 2.0" (probably all-snow) MWK: 2.2" (Big Frosty is crushed......) GSP: 1.7-2.0" (All-snow) CLT: ~2.0" (Definitely mixing, but still crushed) RDU: 1.5" (First ~0.6" is snow) CAE: 2.0" This is the greatest Euro run of my life. Even if it's overdone........ Wow. So help me out for RDU 0.6 is what in inches for the snow part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does Ric changeover? Whats the total precip amount? Thank you per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So help me out for RDU 0.6 is what in inches for the snow part? 5 inches or so if no sleet mx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the Euro verifies, it will easily make up for all the pathetic winters for the last few years. It would be our Snowmageddon from I-85 west. I can't believe what I just saw. I can go to bed and sleep well now - can get rid of the NAM nightmares from earlier tonight. Can hardly wait to track the storm tomorrow. Thanks for the PBP SuperJames !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So help me out for RDU 0.6 is what in inches for the snow part? Rough estimate. Just move the decimal one place to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheech78 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Rough estimate. Just move the decimal one place to the right. Thanks guys! im new too this and glad I found this forum, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, I think the key here is that there is going to be a big thump tomorrow aftn. Charlotte gets 0.8 liq equiv of all snow from 1PM to 7PM tomorrow. I agree. I'm sitting at 1 C per that map it looks like and will be playing the waiting game all day to see if I can manage say a 50-50 mix instead of pure sleet and how soon or hopefully late that transition from pure snow begins. Uptown and other points closer to town look to be out of luck at staying all or almost all snow. Going to still be an epic event either way if any of these near perfect model runs verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does Ric changeover? Whats the total precip amount? Thank you per euro ~0.8" QPF before the changeover from snow. Then it looks like you flip to 33 and RN. I can go to bed and sleep well now - can get rid of the NAM nightmares from earlier tonight. Can hardly wait to track the storm tomorrow. Thanks for the PBP SuperJames !! You're welcome. I can't guarantee there wasn't a changeover for us in between the six-hour panels, but I didn't see it. Hell, we could ping for a few hours and still make out with a foot if the Euro was accurate. It's an extreme solution, but we are less than 12 hours from go-time... And, yeah, you can figure 0.6" QPF to be around 5-6" (or maybe 4" if ratios suck or it takes awhile to stick). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So does the EURO still depict a deformation band to pass over N Ga. on the backside of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sfc / 850mb / 700mb low tracks are classic heavy snow tracks for NC mountains and foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the Euro verifies, it will easily make up for all the pathetic winters for the last few years. It would be our Snowmageddon from I-85 west. I can't believe what I just saw. Agreed! I'm truly amazed at the magnitude of this storm! It sounds like the low deepened more rapidly than expected! WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just the extremity of that solution makes me kind of doubt it, but the Euro has shown this consistently. This was the most beefed-up run yet, though. I guess it saved the best for last. We'll see if it's right. I've never seen a surface low track inland ever do much here aside from March '93 (and that had lots of mixing issues), but the Euro has shown this area to either be all-snow or just pinging for a few hours for days. I'd be worried about flipping over to sleet for a decent period of time, but even if that happens, if the QPF is right, we're still talking about a foot of snow/sleet, quite possibly. It's still west of all other guidance, so you could presumably think the track is still a little too far west. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 last random question....at 1C (right on the bleeding edge) for a few hours in between heavy snowfall...is there a decent chance that you end up doing a 50/50 with snow and IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What's the euro's reading for CAE? 2.0" ZR... Temperatures start out in the mid-20s, but rise to around 31-32 by the end of the event. You might sleet to start, but 850s rise to around 8C at one point. On a meteorologically interesting note and to highlight the temperature gradient, Greenville registers 11C at 850 mb at hr 36 while it's snowing from the I-85 corridor-westward. Cape Hatteras probably hits 70 at the surface at the height, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Totals seem too high for me. 23" IMBY is absolutely crazy to think about. I'd cut that total in half and still be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How does CHS make out with this run ? Looks like all-rain to me. Maybe some marginal icing at the start. The Euro is said to have a warm bias at the surface in these situations, though, so keep that in mind. Totals seem too high for me. 23" IMBY is absolutely crazy to think about. I'd cut that total in half and still be happy. Embrace it. This is your time to get back at your DC brethren while they flip over to rain in the heart of the storm! DC-proper probably flips, but the NW burbs and IAD probably stay all-snow, BTW. Ji would make out like a bandit. -- BTW, Btown, Burlington probably flips over to freezing rain for a little bit. Looks like your 850s rise to 4C, so I'd have to think that's probably a ZR signal (not positive without a sounding and I don't have one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 last random question....at 1C (right on the bleeding edge) for a few hours in between heavy snowfall...is there a decent chance that you end up doing a 50/50 with snow and IP? Anything in the column over +0.5 C and you are running the risk of switching over to sleet. But again, you will get hammered with snows from lunch to early evening regardless of switchover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Super, could you tell me when the heaviest precipitation runs through the mountains? I'm just trying to make a preliminary comparison between the RAP and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 500mb low closing off over the western Carolinas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like winds aren't quite as bad this run, BTW. The Euro shows the GSO area gusting into the 40s MPH at one point, but it's not as widespread. Gusts well into the 30s MPH are pretty common, though. Gusts need to be in excess of 50 MPH for a Blizzard Warning and I'm not sure that's going to happen, but it's close. Similar wind gusts occur in the mountains and I would think you might get some 50+ MPH wind gusts there with some of the microclimates. I'm not sure if I really want a legit blizzard, anyways... I'd like to keep the lights on. I guess it would be worth it to experience it once, though. The best snows move through the mountains from probably hr 18 or so until hr 36. The truth is that the best totals are in the foothills, though, verbatim. BTW, I forgot to mention this, but Asheville and Boone look to get around 1.5-1.6" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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