jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is a CMC total precip map out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks for the response. Do you have an opinion of this storm? Sorry if you already posted but you are money in the bank. thank you in advance. Well I don't know where you are located, but the snow/sleet line looks like its going to hug I-85 west of CLT and probably be north of it when you go further east. The Blue Ridge Mountains of NC/SC are probably in the best shape for highest accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Civil Emergency Message issued for SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dan Pav is calling for a SPI 4/5 in this storm GA/SC. Opinions? I'm thinking I didn't move far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WPC not liking the NAM... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1200 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 VALID FEB 12/0000 UTC THRU FEB 15/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF / 21Z SREF MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE...BELOW AVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES TRANSLATE TO LARGE IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE WITH P-TYPE. ONE CONSISTENT TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN MORE OF A WOBBLE OCCURRING BETWEEN EAST/WEST DISPLACEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH / CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE 00Z NAM IS STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU AND NEVER REALLY CLOSES OFF A CENTER AT 500 MB...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE REMAINING MODELS. THE NAM THEREFORE HAS A DIFFERING 850 MB LOW ORIENTATION AND IS FASTER/WEAKER AT THE SURFACE. THE 00Z GFS POSITION LOOKS FINE...JUST A BIT EAST OF THE 12Z ECMWF BUT IS WEAKER AT 850-500 MB BY ABOUT 30 M. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS...INITIALIZED 12Z/11...SHOW 3 CLUSTERS AT 00Z/14. THE ECMWF CLUSTER IS OVER THE DELMARVA WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS MEMBERS ENE OF THE ECMWF...AND THE CMC NORTHEAST OF THE GEFS. GIVEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST STORM ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. AND APPEAR TO BE WELL SAMPLED...THE REASONABLY CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF/UKMET APPEAR TO BE WOBBLING ABOUT A POINT LIKELY TO VERIFY...ALONG WITH THE SREF MEAN...WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF / 21Z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 30 degrees here just sw of cae in Gaston. Radar returns are just outside of my county now as I await the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 29 here in CAE awaiting the powerloss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good luck to you all down there. Freezing rain storms are not a lot of fun. Especially once you get over an inch of precip. Sleet is better, but kind of annoying because you know if there was just a couple of degrees difference, that sleet would be snow piling up. At least sleet doesn't take down power lines and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some Met in the upstates taking this storm back to '88. It's going to be a doozy for us in the midlands-GA that band of snow at the end is going to be a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at the RAP, it has some insane rates for the western end towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at the RAP, it has some insane rates for the western end towards the end of the run. the last couple of RAP runs have slowly increased the amounts to almost the sc border. if this keeps up and verifies there is going to be a lot of stuff falling from the skies across a huge portion of the se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at the RAP, it has some insane rates for the western end towards the end of the run. I was just looking over that, and it looks like our storm is just really starting to tilt and pivot at that point. Also, 850 low is in a good spot at the end of the RAP. Over North Alabama and North Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 DT's Final Call: Seems too low for upstate SC and SW NC, but DT probably paid little attention to this part of the map... And now we all anxiously await the Euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Okay, my DP is almost below 20. Having a hard time now believing i will see sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EURO looks a degree or 2 colder here at 2m in GA and into the upstate. That *more than likely* puts me at 32 (verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good luck down there.. I don't think any of us in the dead zone are excited anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00z Euro... All-snow for GSO through hr 30... CLT looks like a changeover to sleet somewhere between hr 24-30. OMG THIS RUN IS CRUSHING. SUPER WET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSO 0C 850 at hr 30... This run is colder... INT never gets to 0C. The deformation band is cranking. CLT has flipped back to snow by hr 36 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It still tracks inland. I don't know how I get snow out of this setup, but that's what the model says. 995 mb LP over New Bern at hr 36... The deformation band is hammering the western Piedmont and especially the northern foothills hard. The deformation band means business for N NC. Somewhere Mt. Airy is being crushed at hr 42. 1"+/hr rates, no doubt. 850s are absolutely crashing into the -5C territory. By hr 48, the deformation band is pulling out... still showing some snow from GSO-northward. The QPF totals from this run are going to be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benholio Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Delta, This was in the 6z update in the FFC AFD. Thought you might find it interesting. 06Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAF EXCEPT FOR THE MCN AREA WHERE IT APPEARSIT WILL GET TO FREEZING EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND WILL SWITCH OVERTHE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND NOON TODAY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEETWILL BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING IN ATL/AHN AREAS AND CONTINUE INTOTHIS EVENING...SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING WHILE CSGWILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IT WILL BECOME MIXEDWITH SNOW. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST.WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WEDGESTRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Delta, This was in the 6z update in the FFC AFD. Thought you might find it interesting. 06Z UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAF EXCEPT FOR THE MCN AREA WHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL GET TO FREEZING EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND WILL SWITCH OVER THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND NOON TODAY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING IN ATL/AHN AREAS AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING WHILE CSG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IT WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. Thank you for sharing that with me...I did see that on our NWS chat...I appreciate that though! I agree, I think around 10am to noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSO 0C 850 at hr 30... This run is colder... INT never gets to 0C. The deformation band is cranking. CLT has flipped back to snow by hr 36 for sure. Any sense of if the storm looks stronger or weaker than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The FFC radar is really taking on that 2011 snow band look. Working it's way north it seems. Maybe it'll bring an early thumping to y'all to my north and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With a focus on NC, here is warmest panel on the latest Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSP 12:45 am Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Okay, so here's he surface low track... HR 24: SW GA, 1004 mb HR 30: 998 mb just N of CHS HR 36: 995 mb, maybe a hair west of New Bern HR 42: 988 mb right over Norfolk HR 48: 983 mb in southern Delaware DC flips to rain during the middle of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any sense of if the storm looks stronger or weaker than 12z? It's a little stronger. It's at 995 mb over New Bern compared to 997 mb at 12z. The track is every so slightly east, but mostly the same. That might have made all the difference here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ga Snohound Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone in the Walton/Morgan/Newton areas have a temp reading? I'm near social circle, rain coming down...been hovering at 32/33 since 5:30....nothing appearing to freeze yet....watching burns up totals now. I'm assuming local mets are gonna ride the doc home... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's a little stronger. It's at 995 mb over New Bern compared to 997 mb at 12z. The track is every so slightly east, but mostly the same. That might have made all the difference here, though. Is it showing a longer duration with the snows like UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Okay, Raleigh gets 0.6" QPF or so before the changeover. 850s warm to 7C by hr 36, but crash back below 0C by hr 42. Insane... Raleigh does flip to 35 and rain after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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