packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Cold rain for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not warmer anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm having a hard time believing this to be quite honest. But fwiw..and this is just through hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 66hr I'm still below freezing 850 wise with a wall of precip about to enter let's hope a warm nose or something won't wreck that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 March 93 type track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh my god.. Atlanta would get creamed by the nam. I can't give details yet but it's nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hopefully the NAM is out to lunch with this solution and that low tracks further west. This would be devastating for ATL. Like natural disaster. Only 3 different solutions with the last three runs of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh my word -- ice/sleet storm for the ages. 2m temps COLDER/850s warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Remember the NAM almost always is too amped.. but wow, I didn't expect a run quite like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 through hour 72..minus the first wave, that's 2.5 inches for the second one. I can't imagine that not being over the top. But the good news is I think a lot would be sleet. Btw, as an added bonus it swings some light snow back over the area. I mean what can you really say? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 March 93 type trackeven better than the 18z run. Im sure the nam is way too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hard to tell what the NAM snowfall map is seeing. I thought it usually doesn't include ZR and IP? '' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 And here's the crazy thing, I don't think the model really picks up on the deform band that would set up n/west of that sweet looking 850 low near Athens at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh my god at the NAM for Atlanta. That better be mainly snow/sleet. Ridiculous QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pops the low almost right over morehead city, nc or in that vicinity this could get ugly quick zr and sleet wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Chris, whats funny is the SFC low is a little further N moving through GA and a touch stronger (than the 18z run) but yet its actually colder at 2m for you and me...hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I will go ahead and post this before someone else does. Yes, we understand all issues with snowfall maps.. I also have no idea what the nam is seeing here. Our area looks to get 1.5-2.0" of total QPF as shown on the nam Hard to tell what the NAM snowfall map is seeing. I thought it usually doesn't include ZR and IP? '' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well @60 when there is a ton of precip entering NC the hi-res NAM has 850's at around -1 it looks like for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not that it really matters, but it looks like the NAM would bring through a band of decent snow for at least the western half of NC after the main pingermaggedon event after hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The bufkit data will be the only way to make sense out of this run. That snow map is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just remember it's the NAM and almost always over does amounts. that thing has gone Jerry Springer wild tonight!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 EPIC run for the mountains, and perhaps adjacent foothills, wait for bufkit data to get a better idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Actually, it does matter and nice catch -- with an 850 low that strong -- going to be some wraparound snow. Not that it really matters, but it looks like the NAM would bring through a band of decent snow for at least the western half of NC after the main pingermaggedon event after hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The bufkit data will be the only way to make sense out of this run. That snow map is worthless. NAM is seeing something. Has CLT right on a line from 72-78 with ZR looking at P-types and then it goes back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The bufkit data will be the only way to make sense out of this run. That snow map is worthless. Probably not, I just looked at it for ATL and its usless, does not show anything but rain til 06Z Wed AM...noy buying that at all....its still slow wedging alot of places in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well @60 when there is a ton of precip entering NC the hi-res NAM has 850's at around -1 it looks like for WNC. With a rapidly deepening low, it's going to start pulling down colder air... watch the 850mb low. There's no way it's going to be that warm in the mid levels with a sfc low bombing out on the SE coast. 0 line would be positioned closer to I-85 or further east with a low positioned here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So how would you even attempt to describe to someone what this run depicts? Even if you reduced the QPF output by HALF, it's still beyond belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm having a hard time believing this to be quite honest. But fwiw..and this is just through hour 66 you arent the only one. seems like the nam did this before the other storm and then it dropped off on future runs. if it doesnt drop off then wow. even if cut in half still pretty impressive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With the west movement, as shown on the 00nam, you are correct. However, lets sort out the layers first. EPIC run for the mountains, and perhaps adjacent foothills, wait for bufkit data to get a better idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can't believe what I just saw/am seeing. I know it's the NAM and we all joke, but we are getting under 60 hours out from this. Just wow. I want to see soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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