griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Backside deformation band sounds sexy and all, but I'd be more interested in the front side warm advection snows which begin early tomorrow morning spreading north through western / central / northeast NC, and NW SC. For example, GFS has snow for Raleigh from late morning til dinner time. Radar is going to look awesome when you wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hmmm...are we sure this is all just rain at 32 degrees?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah..that same "model" shows the upstate getting one or two inches. I have news for you...it's not worth the bits used to show that garbage. That said, i do find it amazing they would put up a map that shows gainesville getting 12 inches. Even though it's possible if they don't mix/change over..it's nuts when you consider how conservative they always are. But you know one hour before , they had athens getting 9 but in one hours time they went back to 6. Yep..nothing like showing that garbage to your viewers and then telling the viewers to trust you. Just damn GLEN burns. Above edited by jburns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah..that same "model" shows the upstate getting one or two inches. I have news for you...it's not worth the bits used to show that garbage. That said, i do find it amazing they would put up a map that shows gainesville getting 12 inches. Even though it's possible if they don't mix/change over..it's nuts when you consider how conservative they always are. But you know one hour before , they had athens getting 9 but in one hours time they went back to 6. Yep..nothing like showing that garbage to your viewers and then telling the viewers to trust you. Just damn burns. This is such a gross storm, the whole CAD vs the deepening low is going to cause headaches until the very end of the storm. I just hope everyone assumes the worst and prepares. I always like to overestimate the CA depth and strength because CAD is such a problem with the models. They usually are behind with LLV CA and overestimate how quickly WA will develop. If you are fringed or on the border assume the worst and I hope you are prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't see anything on the 0z runs which would change my forecast for the Triad....could easily reach a foot of snow in spots! Yes, ice (sleet) could work into the mix esp S and E but I think it will be minimal. It's GO TIME! Please enjoy this since these kind of storms don't come around often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The best Mets IMO, put a first forecast out there and tweak it when necessary. They won't run "super predictors" and let computers dictate the amounts. I find it absolutely ridiculous and maddening. Use the models, use your training, trust your interpretation, use some analogs, draw your maps and and STICK TO YOUR GUNS. So many mets are lazzzzy these days. Makes me really appreciate the good ones. This. This is why I've hand drawn my maps 2 days out and tweaked them for winter events. Viewers don't give a bleep about winter storm watches and warnings and what not. They just want to know how much snow or ice they're going to get and how long it's going to last. That's why I rarely, if ever, show model amounts unless it's for the video forecasts I do for YouTube or on Twitter. Even then, I've always ended with what I think. All that and it makes the met seem wishy washy. I'm straight up with my viewers and followers and will readily admit if I bust. We're human after all. Lol. Rant over. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Above edited by jburns. That's how he spells his name too sometimes. The man can't count his nuts and come up with the same number twice! Hanging in at about 35F right now with rain on the doorstep. DP 30F. That finger of precip that was depicted earlier certainly materialized. I'm hoping you CLT guys pull some good snow out of this. You guys have been on top of this storm all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 When is estimated starting time for storm around Winston? I've seen 10am 3pm etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ukie temps looked pretty good -- 850 line safely east of CLT throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone notice that HKY is located at GSP?? hahaha Here is the latest upper airNote 10k feet needs to be at least -6c for good snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't see anything on the 0z runs which would change my forecast for the Triad....could easily reach a foot of snow in spots! Yes, ice (sleet) could work into the mix esp S and E but I think it will be minimal. It's GO TIME! Please enjoy this since these kind of storms don't come around often! Agree on all points and sounds like a great call...also, I'd have full confidence that the Euro will hold its solution tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't see anything on the 0z runs which would change my forecast for the Triad....could easily reach a foot of snow in spots! Yes, ice (sleet) could work into the mix esp S and E but I think it will be minimal. It's GO TIME! Please enjoy this since these kind of storms don't come around often! My thoughts exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ukie temps looked pretty good -- 850 line safely east of CLT throughout. Kick ass... let's take it and clock out of the model staring scene. I'm going to bed to be rested for the big day tomorrow. No point waiting for the Euro. It's go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Panovich, just lowered his snow forecast and said he's looking for more sleet and zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This. This is why I've hand drawn my maps 2 days out and tweaked them for winter events. Viewers don't give a bleep about winter storm watches and warnings and what not. They just want to know how much snow or ice they're going to get and how long it's going to last. That's why I rarely, if ever, show model amounts unless it's for the video forecasts I do for YouTube or on Twitter. Even then, I've always ended with what I think. All that and it makes the met seem wishy washy. I'm straight up with my viewers and followers and will readily admit if I bust. We're human after all. Lol. Rant over. Haha! PERFECTLY put!! I am on the only one in this market that makes there own maps. If I am right, yay, if wrong, not happy but learn from it and am humble and honest about it. Thats all the public really wants. The competition only shows models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is such a gross storm, the whole CAD vs the deepening low is going to cause headaches until the very end of the storm. I just hope everyone assumes the worst and prepares. I always like to overestimate the CA depth and strength because CAD is such a problem with the models. They usually are behind with LLV CA and overestimate how quickly WA will develop. If you are fringed or on the border assume the worst and I hope you are prepared. The last two sentences are what I've been trying to tell my news director and another met at the station. We're right on the edge and models don't always get the CAD correct down my way. Will we see lots of rain? You bet! Will some of it be freezing rain? I'm betting yes, at this juncture, since we're already 2° cooler than forecast from this AM. That difference will put us right on the line for freezing rain. Hence, why I would rather be safe than sorry, especially when it comes to the safety of my viewers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's how he spells his name too sometimes. The man can't count his nuts and come up with the same number twice! Hanging in at about 35F right now with rain on the doorstep. DP 30F. That finger of precip that was depicted earlier certainly materialized. I'm hoping you CLT guys pull some good snow out of this. You guys have been on top of this storm all the way. I've had pretty moderate/light rain for about an hour. All my remotes are reading 34 which is unusual....one is always a degree or two higher. Usually in a winter storm I begrudge each drop that falls as rain, but with zr threatening, I think of it as one less nail in the coffin, lol. Now, I will regret them if it all goes sleet tomorrow, but I'll worry about that later! What kills me is JB hyping an inch of zr as the end of the world, when it's been three times worse up there, and he knows it!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My thoughts exactly... It think mooresville will get a few hours of sleet. the nam looks really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 PERFECTLY put!! I am on the only one in this market that makes there own maps. If I am right, yay, if wrong, not happy but learn from it and am humble and honest about it. Thats all the public really wants. The competition only shows models...I hate to say it because I don't want to seem arrogant or anything, but my station wouldn't have the hand drawn maps if it weren't for me. I'm the young one, by over 20 years!, here, and they just don't have the 'time'. When it comes to this, I get in early and make the time. It's what sets you and me and others apart. Our time and effort for those trusting us to make the right call. Haha! Sorry guys. Read an email that sent me off a bit. I'm good now. To make this on topic. ... The dew point and temperature have been a good 2-3° apart all evening, even after the rain started back up. The dew point has dropped a hair faster than the temp, which could put freezing rain in play by daybreak here if trends keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just saw on the Fox 21 10 o'clock news, they interviewed Mike Seidel form TWC who is in Greenville, SC for this storm and he said that this storm should rival the snowstorm of 1988 when he was a met on WYFF. Said the Upstate hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in over 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is/will there be a spreadsheet that will show each model runs output of precip? I know some save maps for future reference. I would love to see a spreadsheet showing the output from each run to see how close or far off they were what the roller coaster ride models took us own for this storm. Anyway, GAME ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Current Upper Air Use these links: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# 700mb needs to generally be at -6 for good snow growth. (These are just general quick glance guidelines, but it is more complicated as critical thickness and saturation points at various levels need to also be considered) 850mb Best of luck that all works out for more snow than ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The last two sentences are what I've been trying to tell my news director and another met at the station. We're right on the edge and models don't always get the CAD correct down my way. Will we see lots of rain? You bet! Will some of it be freezing rain? I'm betting yes, at this juncture, since we're already 2° cooler than forecast from this AM. That difference will put us right on the line for freezing rain. Hence, why I would rather be safe than sorry, especially when it comes to the safety of my viewers. No doubt, its even worse here. NAM and GFS tonight on the Raw text, from earl barker site, shows 32-33 and either RN or FZRA and GFS has 1.6" ZR and the NAM doesn't show FZRA, but RN and its got over 2" showing 32 degrees, but RN...puzzled but what a freaking forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Why does it need to be -6? Radar is showing it converting to snow before the SC border. It doesn't... for good snow growth, all you really want is a saturated layer with good omega between -10 to -20 C. It doesn't matter if that layer is at the surface, 850 hPa, 700 hPa or 500 hPa... just as long as the saturated layer with good negative omega at those temperatures exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are the temp forecasts right? NAM 0Z Cobb has us at 32 at tom 1am and we're already at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OK so Panovich took the warming to RN out of the forecast. Still shows between 5-8" throughout the Metro and advises that it is still a conservative call. Significant ice accumulations along the SE border counties up to .5", I think this is a very solid call, but don't want to rely too much on one Met's output. Off to bed and hope to wake up to a blizzard. For some reason, my office has decided to delay until 10 AM, which makes absolutely no sense! Given that I'm still relatively new to the forum, I'll hold off on posting my call map, but it is similar to Brad P's. My totals may even be slightly lower based on recent model runs showing warmer air aloft, dryslotting potential, and convective feedback issues. Goodnight, and good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GEFS looks really good for those in the west. 1 inch totals reach the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It doesn't... for good snow growth, all you really want is a saturated layer with good omega between -10 to -20 C. It doesn't matter if that layer is at the surface, 850 hPa, 700 hPa or 500 hPa... just as long as the saturated layer with good negative omega at those temperatures exists. Thanks for the response. Do you have an opinion of this storm? Sorry if you already posted but you are money in the bank. thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Current Upper Air 700mb needs to be at -6 for good snow growth I'll be at work away from good hardware tomorrow. I do hope you post these same images current , every chance you get. This is what we need to be looking at. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I agree with Accuweather's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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