WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is no way that deform band is rain.But the model shows above freezing at the surface and eventually 850. Someone with a met degree needs to explain this to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm sort of at a loss right now. Earlier the source i was using showed a much more frighting sounding in terms of freezing rain but now it looks colder for here and atlanta. Bizarre..I know I wasn't hallucinating. Still some freezing rain probably but a lot more sleet (thankfully) Will go back and look a third time and see..but end of world cancel for now. I'm praying it verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is no way that deform band is rain. With that low over the lakes pushing in, our cold source is looking weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 According to bufkit, the 0z nam gives cae 3.20" of zr it had better be wrong Keep in mind; that's based off COBB data. I could definitely see a realistic 2+ inches for sure though. Taking a blend of tonights 00z NAM + 00z Euro will be closer to reality when all is said and done for our area Michelle. 00z GFS is much warmer for many of us in SC. Gets us right over Lexington with a nice "snow blob" from the deformation.. but its 35+ degrees and we end as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Recon flight was cut short and had equipment failure, btw. Tomorrow it is. One dropsonde ingested, they were scheduled for 4-6 or so? NOUS42 KWNO 120127ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0126Z WED FEB 12 2014THE 00Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH 14 ALASKAN...30CANADIAN...69 CONUS...1 CARIBBEAN AND 7 MEXICAN RAOB REPORTS AVBLFOR INGEST.ADDITIONALLY...ONE DROPSONDE AND ONE FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTWERE RECEIVED FROM A SHORTENED WSR MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...91334/TKK - PURGED TEMP/RH 782-623...TOO COLD76692/HYY - 10158...FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILUREOREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the latest upper air Note 10k feet needs to be at least -6c for good snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't think the models are handling this correctly. Seems to go against the science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm sort of at a loss right now. Earlier the source i was using showed a much more frighting sounding in terms of freezing rain but now it looks colder for here and atlanta. Bizarre..I know I wasn't hallucinating. Still some freezing rain probably but a lot more sleet (thankfully) Will go back and look a third time and see..but end of world cancel for now. GFS and NAM look colder Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With that low over the lakes pushing in, our cold source is looking weak. There's that Great Lakes low we haven't mentioned in days! I thought it was going to be a non issue, but I guess our storm slowed down too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't think the models are handling this correctly. Seems to go against the science. I outta remember that one the next time I don't like outcome of something. You are against science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's a reason that well respected Mets around the area have been showing reduced totals, and even showing the system ending as rain in the Metro CLT area. Hats off to Brad Panovich as this is almost exactly what appears to be happening per the RGEM and NAM. Now, obviiously there is a good chance that this doesn't verify, but all the 10"+ MBY posts should probably stop at this point. At this point, there is a decent chance that the CLT metro area doesn't even see much in the way of SN tomorrow, unfortunate as it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some changes at 10:35 from KGSP I would expect some of these areas could be subject to further revision in the morning. Looks like they adjusted tonight based on early input from the 0z model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WOW, This aint looking good for us. NAM has us getting sleet for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's a reason that well respected Mets around the area have been showing reduced totals, and even showing the system ending as rain in the Metro CLT area. Hats off to Brad Panovich as this is almost exactly what appears to be happening per the RGEM and NAM. Now, obviiously there is a good chance that this doesn't verify, but all the 10"+ MBY posts should probably stop at this point. At this point, there is a decent chance that the CLT metro area doesn't even see much in the way of SN tomorrow, unfortunate as it may be. Don't jump yet, the storm hasn't even started. Mets are running with the idea that the 00z suite really did in fact ingest crucial data but as I posted earlier, it appears not so. There was flight equipment failure, a shortened flight, little data was ingested. See:http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus Recon is rollin' again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 News in north Georgia has a snow bullseye of 12"+ and most of north ga in 7-9 inch range! Pull it in king euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM back up to showing .50 to .75" ZR (up from .10") 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CIVIL EMERGENCY, STATE OF SC BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDCIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGESOUTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY COLUMBIA SOUTHCAROLINARELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC1054 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTHCAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT-THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASISSUED SEVERE WINTER WEATHER ALERTS FOR MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA,PREDICTING SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. POWER OUTAGES ANDDANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA FORCHANGES IN CONDITIONS. SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETYAND THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION URGE MOTORISTS TO STAY OFFTHE ROADWAYS. IN THE EVENT OF AN EMERGENCY CALL *HP OR 911. FORTHE STATUS OF GOVERNMENT OFFICES STATEWIDE VISIT SCEMD.ORG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can someone post the soundings for CHS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm sort of at a loss right now. Earlier the source i was using showed a much more frighting sounding in terms of freezing rain but now it looks colder for here and atlanta. Bizarre..I know I wasn't hallucinating. Still some freezing rain probably but a lot more sleet (thankfully) Will go back and look a third time and see..but end of world cancel for now. sounds familiar - i think my eyes and brain are just crossed at this point. i scratch my earlier post about mixing here. who knows maybe it will maybe it wont. gsp's updated map has a pretty big swath of 10" amounts from ne ga through the upstate into nc. the ice line now looks just to the south of this area, so that would make sense to have that as the heavier area of precip. am just guessing here but we are talking about scales of 25 - 50 miles and the models just cant hone in on that small a detail hence the fluctation of the jackpot swath. about ready to throw in the model-towel and just go to watching lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't jump yet, the storm hasn't even started. Mets are running with the idea that the 00z suite really did in fact ingest crucial data but as I posted earlier, it appears not so. There was flight equipment failure, a shortened flight, little data was ingested. See:http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus Recon is rollin' again tomorrow. Why should that make a big difference? It only matters if the models are missing data that's significantly different from what's actually out there. But the components to this system have been over areas of the world with pretty good data coverage for a day or two now. What is the recon going to pick up that's going to result in a dramatic shift of anything? Even if the low track changes, the temperature trends, which are well-measured by our surface stations, are not likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 News in north Georgia has a snow bullseye of 12"+ and most of north ga in 7-9 inch range! Pull it in king euro! Yeah..that same "model" shows the upstate getting one or two inches. I have news for you...it's not worth the bits used to show that garbage. That said, i do find it amazing they would put up a map that shows gainesville getting 12 inches. Even though it's possible if they don't mix/change over..it's nuts when you consider how conservative they always are. But you know one hour before , they had athens getting 9 but in one hours time they went back to 6. Yep..nothing like showing that garbage to your viewers and then telling the viewers to trust you. Just damn burns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Civil emergency message for entire state of SC. Never seen that before. The schools on the coast haven't closed for tomorrow, but pretty much everyone else has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't jump yet, the storm hasn't even started. Mets are running with the idea that the 00z suite really did in fact ingest crucial data but as I posted earlier, it appears not so. There was flight equipment failure, a shortened flight, little data was ingested. See:http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus Recon is rollin' again tomorrow. When that got posted thought the same thing. Throw 00z suite out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 sounds familiar - i think my eyes and brain are just crossed at this point. i scratch my earlier post about mixing here. who knows maybe it will maybe it wont. gsp's updated map has a pretty big swath of 10" amounts from ne ga through the upstate into nc. the ice line now looks just to the south of this area, so that would make sense to have that as the heavier area of precip. am just guessing here but we are talking about scales of 25 - 50 miles and the models just cant hone in on that small a detail hence the fluctation of the jackpot swath. about ready to throw in the model-towel and just go to watching lmao I just have always wanted a weak storm when it comes to winter. The warm nose can cause such distress, and the only time I've ever seen over 2 inches fall all frozen was zr, lol. My biggest worry has always been these huge amounts of liquid forecast. It never bodes well down here...at least for me, lol. This probably won't sort out until it's over But I'm holding on to sleet like it was a life line!! No zr, no zr, no zr....T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah..that same "model" shows the upstate getting one or two inches. I have news for you...it's not worth the bits used to show that garbage. That said, i do find it amazing they would put up a map that shows gainesville getting 12 inches. Even though it's possible if they don't mix/change over..it's nuts. Oh and one hour before that map, they had athens getting 9 but in one hours time they went back to 6. Yep..nothing like showing that garbage to your viewers and then telling the viewers to trust you. Just damn burns. But it's better than ken cook going conservative. Three things certain the south. Death, taxes, and cook will always be conservative. I don't understand how they can say 2-4 in north Georgia. Why not show what models show and warn the citzens. I'm feeling 6-8 in cumming and most models agree! But well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does the GFS look to have convective feedback to anyone else or is it just me? There's a few sketchy blobs of precip in a few frames. The UKMET looks to have a nice track, though we'll have to wait for better maps. It's a beast of storm, 997 mb off of ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Civil emergency message for entire state of SC. Never seen that before. The schools on the coast haven't closed for tomorrow, but pretty much everyone else has. The local forecasters around Charleston are saying nothing major just maybe some freezing rain if that. they think its mostly a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No matter how good it looks a few days out, temps always become an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm also not seeing where the westward trend doesn't significantly bring down totals in the Triangle as well. 850's look even worse there than in the Upstate and WNC. I may be chasing into the mountains if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah..that same "model" shows the upstate getting one or two inches. I have news for you...it's not worth the bits used to show that garbage. That said, i do find it amazing they would put up a map that shows gainesville getting 12 inches. Even though it's possible if they don't mix/change over..it's nuts when you consider how conservative they always are. But you know one hour before , they had athens getting 9 but in one hours time they went back to 6. Yep..nothing like showing that garbage to your viewers and then telling the viewers to trust you. Just damn burns. The best Mets IMO, put a first forecast out there and tweak it when necessary. They won't run "super predictors" and let computers dictate the amounts. I find it absolutely ridiculous and maddening. Use the models, use your training, trust your interpretation, use some analogs, draw your maps and and STICK TO YOUR GUNS. So many mets are lazzzzy these days. Makes me really appreciate the good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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