Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM fails to go neg tilt with the trough axis and thus the dry slot pulls west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks like Atlanta on over to many areas of SC get destroyed with some type of winter weather. Way over a foot showing on the inaccurate snow maps. The ice storm looks to be the most impactful part of the storm. Cities will be offline for days. Can someone offer some analysis for these areas? I hope they are as prepared as possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the latest forecast for the northern Atlanta burbs. Millions of people in the corridor. FFC really used some strong language here. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 908 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 GAZ025-030>035-041-045-121015- /O.CON.KFFC.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140213T1800Z/ JACKSON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON- DEKALB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE... DECATUR 908 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALONG A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTA METRO TO JEFFERSON. * HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG IN ADDITION TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE. * TIMING...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE OCCURS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY AS ICE ACCUMULATES ON TREES AND POWERLINES AND BRINGS THEM DOWN. PLEASE PREPARE TO BE WITHOUT POWER IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS AS LONG AS A WEEK. ONCE THE ICE BEGINS TO MELT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... FALLING ICE FROM BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THESE WIND SPEEDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ICE WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TREES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SNOW AND ICE ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. WITH THE FORECAST SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS...WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My best friend and his family live in Aiken, SC. I have tried to stress to him exactly what an inch of ice will do, so I hope they are prepared. I am beginning to wonder if they get more than an inch at this point. The 00z NAM has over 3" of liquid! I was really hoping to stay out of the freezing rain for the most part but the nam looks to have a large enough warm nose to switch me over sometime during the day tomorrow. The rap also has a deep and pretty warm agl and although the boundary layer is really cold, not sure it's enough. Earlier runs has the warm nose only at around 825 or 850mb..now the rap has the warm nose from 750mb down to as low as 900mb by the end of it's run and the nam is deep also..although not as warm with the max temp. Hopefully colder temps will prevail but the last one or two runs of the models haven't looked good here. nam and rap would clearly be a freezing rain scenerio in atlanta..even more so than here due to a shallower cold boundary layer and deeper warm nose early on. In fact, they might be lucky if they get much sleet at all until it's too late. The nam might be all freezing rain in atlanta for much of the storm I'm sorry to say looking at the soundings. And I'm sorry to say the rap is agreeing with the nam..looks like mainly freezing rain in atlanta with these two models. For that cities sake I hope not . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Technically they are forecasting 5 to 10 inches here with a half inch of freezing rain. Not far south of here though they are forecasting 4 to 8 inches of snow/sleet and up to 0.90 of freezing rain. Either way it would be brutal with winds gusting to 25 to 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00z RGEM looks a little colder out to hr 24 compared to the 12z run (can't really compare it to the 18z run with off-hours) based on the awful B&W maps. We're talking small changes, but that means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I was really hoping to stay out of the freezing rain for the most part but the nam looks to have a large enough warm nose to switch me over sometime during the day tomorrow. The rap also has a deep and pretty warm agl and although the boundary layer is really cold, not sure it's enough. Earlier runs has the warm nose only at around 825 or 850mb..now the rap has the warm nose from 750mb down to as low as 900mb by the end of it's run and the nam is deep also..although not as warm with the max temp. Hopefully colder temps will prevail but the last one or two runs of the models haven't looked good here. nam and rap would clearly be a freezing rain scenerio in atlanta..even more so than here due to a shallower cold boundary layer and deeper warm nose early on. In fact, they might be lucky if they get much sleet at all until it's too late. The nam might be all freezing rain in atlanta for much of the storm I'm sorry to say looking at the soundings. And I'm sorry to say the rap is agreeing with the nam..looks like mainly freezing rain in atlanta with these two models. For that cities sake I hope not . yikes - there have been so many model runs to look at (and changing ones at that) that i may not remember correctly on this. it seems like originally (several days ago) this was looking like a round 1 light snow and round 2 heavy sleet/ice storm for most of n ga. then the last couple of days it appeared much more snow for a lot of folks. if this is correct and the models go back to what i think the euro was showing over the weekend there could be a substantially higher amount of ice in a lot places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WxSouth just posted on Facebook the NAM was too warm for eastern NC, AL, GA, MS, and SC compared to reality (Meso analysis), and that can make a big difference between snow or sleet tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RPM has ATL proper right on the ZR/sleet line for much of the day tomorrow then back to sleet late afternoon then 2-4" of snow. A lot more snow far NE Georgia. One thing some on this group in the Carolinas will not like, brings ZR/IP pretty far west up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Chris, the nam and 4km nam keep me at 33 degrees from 7am to 7pm then go to 31...WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00z RGEM is a little east. Passes more over the Pamlico Sound and a hair inland. 00z: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_033_0000.gif 18z: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/GZ_D5_PN_039_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WxSouth just posted on Facebook the NAM was too warm for eastern NC, AL, GA, MS, and SC compared to reality (Meso analysis), and that can make a big difference between snow or sleet tomorrow. Keep in mind the SPC meso analysis is just the 1hr RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OK people, we need to stop the IMBY posts. The info is is the thread and reading is fundamental. We would hate to have to switch from deleting posts to deleting posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wait, what the hell did the RGEM just do? It looks like it backed south between hr 36 and 39 and just hammers central NC. It's still hammering at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wait, what the hell did the RGEM just do? It looks like it backed south between hr 36 and 39 and just hammers central NC. It's still hammering at hr 48. this storm will go down in the history books James! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Strong neg tilt phase really blowing it up on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM looks a little better for the RDU area. Surface temps continue to stay below freezing during the main precip event. The Twister site actually pushes the 6" inch snow line farther east of Raleigh; of course the is probably a lot of ice mix. Only to hour 36. looking at the simulated radar it looks like RDU gets into the deformation band later on. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=00&fhour=36¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false BUFKIT soundings are very freezing rain looking. Would be Dec 2002 if NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's funny you mentioned that because comparing the black and whites 36 hours to 12z 48hours I noticed how far south the 0z run was. EDIT: Got that backward -- it was north of the 12z position -- up on the NC/Va line. Wait, what the hell did the RGEM just do? It looks like it backed south between hr 36 and 39 and just hammers central NC. It's still hammering at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wait, what the hell did the RGEM just do? It looks like it backed south between hr 36 and 39 and just hammers central NC. It's still hammering at hr 48. Pivoting perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32AndCloudy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wait, what the hell did the RGEM just do? It looks like it backed south between hr 36 and 39 and just hammers central NC. It's still hammering at hr 48. Probably not what's happening, but it almost looks like the original low transferred itself to a secondary off the NC coast. The feature off VA @ 39 looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BUFKIT soundings are very freezing rain looking. Would be Dec 2002 if NAM is right. And the GFS had more snow and less ice. Hard to know what will really happen still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 34.2° Dropping about .1° every 15-20 mins now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We should look to see what is going on at 700mb and 850mb level right now thia evening and if more cold air is advecting in. The HRRR indicates what we have now is about all will get in terms of cold air advection before the precip starts around day break. Grandfather Mountain, a good indicator at the 850mb level, has had temps to uptick the last few hours. I would like to see some additional cold air to work in tonight before the WAA starts late morning tomorrow. I don't want to over analyze this, but profile temps are what it's all about tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow, nice push of colder 850 temps through 21 on 0z GFS --- improved at 12 hours for N. Ga. and really good run for CLT temps wise. EDIT: LOL -- until it got to hour 24 and was about the same or even a touch warmer. #postingcurse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS looks warmer for NC/SC, but has that deformation band come through late similar to the RGEM. Surface temperature suck for that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm sort of at a loss right now. Earlier the source i was using showed a much more frighting sounding in terms of freezing rain but now it looks colder for here and atlanta. Bizarre..I know I wasn't hallucinating. Still some freezing rain probably but a lot more sleet (thankfully) Will go back and look a third time and see..but end of world cancel for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Idk if it was just me but the GFS looked awful with all the heavy precip staying off the coast. Idk if it still failing from convective feedback or what the issue is but the storm looks nothing like the canadien models or european models on the northwest side of things. I actually am quite disappointed at how miserable it has performed for a storm of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS looks warmer for NC/SC, but has that deformation band come through late similar to the RGEM. Surface temperature suck for that, though. Yeah. It would suck to have that deform band come through with heavy rain, but that's what the gfs is showing. Ryan Maue is posting nice weather type graphics on his twitter page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 According to bufkit, the 0z nam gives cae 3.20" of zr it had better be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is no way that deform band is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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