Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6pm temps. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152174279239242&set=a.134521374241.106584.21957014241&type=1&theaterTamparitus, on 11 Feb 2014 - 6:43 PM, said: Can you share this link? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Mhmm, but your RH is high which is bad when the warm nose comes through. I may be wrong though. One thing that is bothering me is that in the zone from Upstate SC to PA the temps and dew points are higher than either the NAM or GFS MOS numbers for 0z- both have dew points in the 24-26 degree range at 00Z, the current dew at KCLT is 30. Those who got the snow, are higher. I just barely missed it today and my dewpoint is currently 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR might be overamped or something....I'm getting 6-8 inches of frontend snow lol!? It's hard to believe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18Z GFS is an absolutely amazing run for ATL-AHN. I think it is the most bullish yet for IP/snow combined. Wow! Yeah....coming closer to the 00z and 12z EURO runs too. Glad KFFC is now forecasting 4-8" inches across Atlanta metro....with 6-10" around Lake Lanier and east/ ne from there. I won't be surprised to see some 12"+ snowfall depths north and east of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those who got the snow, are higher. I just barely missed it today and my dewpoint is currently 25. Chez's observation is a rather interesting development which none of the models had that I remember; the 1st event over-performed and saturated quite a bit of real estate which may play into the CAD situation. One potential is this allows the lower levels to remain much closer to freezing instead of well below which could mitigate some of the devasting ICE predictions. We'll have to keep a close eye on how this plays out or if it's a non-issue. It does seem potentially important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR might be overamped or something....I'm getting 6-8 inches of frontend snow lol!? It's hard to believe.... It looks like that may be taking into account the first wave of precip that moved through this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks like that may be taking into account the first wave of precip that moved through this morning. It's not...this run barely just came out and is projecting 15 hours ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Latest RAP looks straight up amped. Also looks to phase later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, I'm back into a pretty good cad drizzle, after being dry for hours. So it begins..... no zr, no zr, no zr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The totals just keep going up.... 10-14" is listed in the Warning text now as well. Cessarich on WYFF4 said the all-time record for GSP is 14", set in 1902... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoG20 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The national weather service of GSP has Updated their snowfall total map to 12.3 inches... They updated the warning also, 10 to 14 inches!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not sure what the NWS is calling for cause I haven't looked but I could see 12" of snow in northeast GA by tomorrow late afternoon where it stays cold enough plus banding/dynamic cooling and enhanced rates. Also could see more snow in ATL metro than what is being called for. Will be interesting to see just how much dynamics can cool the warm layer aloft . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSP now has me at 6-12! Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not sure what the NWS is calling for cause I haven't looked but I could see 12" of snow in northeast GA by tomorrow late afternoon where it stays cold enough plus banding/dynamic cooling and enhanced rates. Also could see more snow in ATL metro than what is being called for. Will be interesting to see just how much dynamics can cool the warm layer aloft . The HRRR seems to be catching onto something. It has continuously projected heavy snow in the early morning hours tomorrow. If it comes to fruition some areas are looking at over 6 inches of front end snow before the change to ZR. Add that with some back end snow and some areas could be looking at near a foot from Atlanta to Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Whoa! Here We Go! Significant Icing In MS/LA. >0.25"MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL LA INTO SWRN THRU E CNTRL MS CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 120030Z - 120230Z SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT ICING IN EXCESS OF 1/4 INCH APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 02-04Z. DISCUSSION...WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF GENERAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA THROUGH AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF JACKSON MS...INTO THE MERIDIAN MS AREA. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...INCLUDING WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BETWEEN NOW AND 02-04Z...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES YIELDING TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1/4 INCH APPEAR PROBABLE. OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SURFACE BASED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS THIS ZONE...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING ICE ON VEGETATION AND OTHER EXPOSED OBJECTS AND SURFACES. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM... AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING...AMONG ROAD SURFACES...AT LEAST BRIDGES/OVERPASSES MAY BE IMPACTED. ..KERR.. 02/12/2014 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31329303 32079170 32738954 32848872 31878904 31299077 30899219 31089276 31329303 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The few Bufkit's I have looked at around triad area and north show 16:1 to 9:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 These frontogenetically enhanced initial snow bands are nothing to slouch at... a similar band preceded the main event in December 2009 and dropped a quick 2-4" across NC mountains and points eastward. Here's a brief excerpt from the Raleigh NWS http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ At the beginning of the event across central North Carolina, a narrow band of precipitation moved north into North Carolina from South Carolina just after 12 UTC on 12/18. This narrow band advanced north, reaching Raleigh and Greensboro just after 17 UTC with most of the precipitation falling as light snow. The precipitation lasted from 30 to 60 minutes and then diminished. This area of precipitation appeared to be associated with an axis of frontogenesis at mid/upper levels as noted in the SPC analysis at 16 UTC 18 UTC, and 20 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The few Bufkit's I have looked at around triad area and north show 16:1 to 9:1 ratios That leads me to ask, what kind of ratios are we realistically looking at with this one? 5:1? 8:1? 10:1? Higher? I'm not good with ratios at all. I'd have to think lowish ratios early on, at least, and maybe higher as the storm pulls to the north, 850s crash, and the deformation band keeps hammering. I know 5:1 is pretty exceptionally low, but Asheville had ratios somewhere around there in March '93, IIRC, so I guess it's possible. ---- On another topic, soil temperatures should really be no issue for most areas. It appears that many areas are in the upper 30s, so that's plenty low enough for significant accumulations. The last couple days have been cold with limited sun, so that's helped a lot. I don't think soil temperatures would matter too much either way with precipitation rates like we should see, but every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 These frontogenetically enhanced initial snow bands are nothing to slouch at... a similar band preceded the main event in December 2009 and dropped a quick 2-4" across NC mountains and points eastward. Here's a brief excerpt from the Raleigh NWS http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ At the beginning of the event across central North Carolina, a narrow band of precipitation moved north into North Carolina from South Carolina just after 12 UTC on 12/18. This narrow band advanced north, reaching Raleigh and Greensboro just after 17 UTC with most of the precipitation falling as light snow. The precipitation lasted from 30 to 60 minutes and then diminished. This area of precipitation appeared to be associated with an axis of frontogenesis at mid/upper levels as noted in the SPC analysis at 16 UTC 18 UTC, and 20 UTC. Thanks Phil, would love to get your thoughts on the path of the low. Kind of a debate going on in banter about how the RGEM is sending the low so far west and inland. Do you think this is legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 These frontogenetically enhanced initial snow bands are nothing to slouch at... a similar band preceded the main event in December 2009 and dropped a quick 2-4" across NC mountains and points eastward. Here's a brief excerpt from the Raleigh NWS http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ At the beginning of the event across central North Carolina, a narrow band of precipitation moved north into North Carolina from South Carolina just after 12 UTC on 12/18. This narrow band advanced north, reaching Raleigh and Greensboro just after 17 UTC with most of the precipitation falling as light snow. The precipitation lasted from 30 to 60 minutes and then diminished. This area of precipitation appeared to be associated with an axis of frontogenesis at mid/upper levels as noted in the SPC analysis at 16 UTC 18 UTC, and 20 UTC. I'm assuming this is what the HRRR might be projecting for Atlanta east to Athens tomorrow morning. It drops a narrow East-West band of heavy heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I really want to see how my temps respond the next few hours. I would love it if the nam would come in colder to really make this an easier forecast. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSP now has me at 6-12! Whoa. It's 8-12 in the Iredell statement. They're really getting aggressive.. usually they stay somewhat conservative and bump it up while the snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That leads me to ask, what kind of ratios are we realistically looking at with this one? 5:1? 8:1? 10:1? Higher? I'm not good with ratios at all. I'd have to think lowish ratios early on, at least, and maybe higher as the storm pulls to the north, 850s crash, and the deformation band keeps hammering. I know 5:1 is pretty exceptionally low, but Asheville had ratios somewhere around there in March '93, IIRC, so I guess it's possible. Looks like most of the storm is in the 12:1. of course who knows if this is right? 1 inch equals 1 foot. example: 1.70 QPF @ 12:1 is 20.4 inches 1.5QPF@ 16:1 is 24.5 Just mult. QPF X Ratio leave out the 1 on ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Robert is very, very enthusiastic. Looking @ mesoscale details.... WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2m will be updating my snow map for northern third of Ala, MS most of southern and eastern TN, bigtime. #snow RAP coming in strong #alwx #tnwx WXSOUTH @WxSouth 9s already see 850 temps will be too warm on GFS over N. AL, n. GA, southern TN. More snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Latest RAP looks straight up amped. Also looks to phase later. RAP is trending stronger with the surface low.. RH creeping a bit further north earlier, however. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Could a met (or anyone) speak on the possibility of 40+ MPH wind gusts in the CLT-GSO corridor tomorrow night? The last few Euro runs have shown 40-50 MPH wind gusts during the height of the storm, which is both exciting and concerning. Is this realistic? That's borderline blizzard conditions and they'll be power outages galore... Looks like most of the storm is in the 12:1. of course who knows if this is right? 1 inch equals 1 foot. example: 1.70 QPF @ 12:1 is 20.4 inches 1.5QPF@ 16:1 is 24.5 Just mult. QPF X Ratio leave out the 1 on ratio How accurate is bufkit usually with snowfall ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP is trending stronger with the surface low.. RH creeping a bit further north earlier, however. Looks good. This is probably a dumb question but I don't really know how RH plays into the warm nose. Is it basically just what causes the WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks Phil, would love to get your thoughts on the path of the low. Kind of a debate going on in banter about how the RGEM is sending the low so far west and inland. Do you think this is legit? Charlotte is right on the edge, but I do think you guys change over to sleet/freezing rain for a significant period of time. The RGEM is in good agreement with the ECMWF and both have CLT going over to sleet/freezing rain from 00z to 12z on Thursday. Probably going to see quite a bit of snow (4-6") before the changeover though. I'm assuming this is what the HRRR might be projecting for Atlanta east to Athens tomorrow morning. It drops a narrow East-West band of heavy heavy snow. Yes... you can actually see the band developing nicely on radar... HRRR seems to be doing a good job projecting the expansion of this band. Its not surprising that its also setting up right along the boundary where most of the folks got snow today, so this initial band might be a good thump of snow for folks 10-20 miles south of places that got the most snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That leads me to ask, what kind of ratios are we realistically looking at with this one? 5:1? 8:1? 10:1? Higher? I'm not good with ratios at all. I'd have to think lowish ratios early on, at least, and maybe higher as the storm pulls to the north, 850s crash, and the deformation band keeps hammering. I know 5:1 is pretty exceptionally low, but Asheville had ratios somewhere around there in March '93, IIRC, so I guess it's possible. ---- On another topic, soil temperatures should really be no issue for most areas. It appears that many areas are in the upper 30s, so that's plenty low enough for significant accumulations. The last couple days have been cold with limited sun, so that's helped a lot. I don't think soil temperatures would matter too much either way with precipitation rates like we should see, but every little bit helps. Bufkit from the 18z gfs has GSO getting 8:1 ratios as an average during the snow. Can anyone tell us about the EPS ensemble mean track or the members? I know that it's a little late in the game to be using the ensembles but I wondered if the mean track was east of the op. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Charlotte is right on the edge, but I do think you guys change over to sleet/freezing rain for a significant period of time. The RGEM is in good agreement with the ECMWF and both have CLT going over to sleet/freezing rain from 00z to 12z on Thursday. Probably going to see quite a bit of snow (4-6") before the changeover though. Yes... you can actually see the band developing nicely on radar... HRRR seems to be doing a good job projecting the expansion of this band. Its not surprising that its also setting up right along the boundary where most of the folks got snow today, so this initial band might be a good thump of snow for folks 10-20 miles south of places that got the most snow today. Exciting stuff. HRRR centers the band right on me. It showing 6-8 inches(10 inch isolated) in a matter of a few hours. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.