Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just looked at 18z GFS bufkit for RDU. Looks like first 0.75 inches of QPF or so is all snow per soundings. About 0.25-0.3 that is freezing rain, then last 0.1 is snow. I will take it. Allan, what is your krdu bufkit source if you don't mind me asking? rah link is slow updating and still shows 12z but I can access CLT, etc from NWS cae. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Allan, what is your krdu bufkit source if you don't mind me asking? rah link is slow updating and still shows 12z but I can access CLT, etc from NWS cae. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I and others have noticed models showing some convection firing up along the boundary in the Gulf. Thoughts on the potential of this enhancing the low level jet and increasing moisture into the Carolinas sooner than anticipated? I'm not sure if the models pick up on this or not. Just looked at 18z GFS bufkit for RDU. Looks like first 0.75 inches of QPF or so is all snow per soundings. About 0.25-0.3 that is freezing rain, then last 0.1 is snow. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For anyone wanting a good lesson on rain and snow lines, thicknesses, problems with using 850 temps as a whole.. this is a great start! http://www.wxonline.info/topics/thickness_pcp.html Here you can view the real time winter critical thicknesses http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Just hover over "Winter Weather" and find the critical thicknesses area. These maps always leave me scratching my head regarding surface temp freezing line. For the past four hours it has shown the surface freezing line up near Maryland yet I have been at 29 all day in far southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hurricane hunters flying into the system today and tomorrow http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Some eye-candy for Charlotte folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Brad P is now showing the precip ending as rain in the metro/upstate on the in house model. I have no idea where that is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Part of CAE is below freezing already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's the first time I've seen that little blob in Davidson County show up. It looks like 14-15"? Just wow! When does the deformation band set up and how long could the triad/foothills be under it? Davidson county always does well. As a Rowan county native It seems the snow/sleet line tends to set up somewhere in Cabarrus county. I live in Concord now and keeping my fingers crossed for all snow. Cant wait to see who ends up in the bullseye! Good luck and be safe!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is 18Z GFS eye candy and bufkit now has RDU up to 7.8" of snow and .24" of ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is an amazing deformation band, Blizzard warnings could be issued with this look. Atlanta gets clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Some eye-candy for Charlotte folks Interesting...per bufkit at least 0.4 of that is IP/ZR, I've been using these coolwx maps for a while now I'm scratching my head.They must not use the same p-type nomogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope this does not happen for Atlanta. Utter destruction. I'm surprised it has no sleet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is 18Z GFS eye candy and bufkit now has RDU up to 7.8" of snow and .24" of ZR How do you convert that to 7.8? Is it less than 10 to 1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Part of CAE is below freezing already. I'm at 32 in Gaston Bufkit for the 18z gfs still gives CAE 1.61" of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Storm warning for Iredell updated... now est 8 to 12 inches with a trace of ice. Best so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is an amazing deformation band, Blizzard warnings could be issued with this look. Atlanta gets clocked. What model is this and what time did it run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One thing that is bothering me is that in the zone from Upstate SC to PA the temps and dew points are higher than either the NAM or GFS MOS numbers for 0z- both have dew points in the 24-26 degree range at 00Z, the current dew at KCLT is 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is an amazing deformation band, Blizzard warnings could be issued with this look. Atlanta gets clocked. That does look amazing. What are wind speeds like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How do you convert that to 7.8? Is it less than 10 to 1 ratio? I got the total directly from here it breaks down the total by different QPF types and it also gives the ratio it uses http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=krdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Most of the models are suggesting right at 2". I'm terrified yet enamored by the strength of this storm. I'm at 32 in Gaston Bufkit for the 18z gfs still gives CAE 1.61" of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Storm warning for Iredell updated... now est 8 to 12 inches with a trace of ice. Best so far. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You think Mooresville will get 8 to 12? Models look like they show some sleet getting to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What model is this and what time did it run? 12z Euro Deformation Band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That does look amazing. What are wind speeds like? 30-40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Part of CAE is below freezing already. Can you share this link? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One thing that is bothering me is that in the zone from Upstate SC to PA the temps and dew points are higher than either the NAM or GFS MOS numbers for 0z- both have dew points in the 24-26 degree range at 00Z, the current dew at KCLT is 30. Locations that saw precip today had dew points into the 30's. locations that didnt have dew points in the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Locations that saw precip today had dew points into the 30's. locations that didnt have dew points in the mid 20's. Yep, means that for us folks who got snow today there is probably going to be little in the way of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep, means that for us folks who got snow today there is probably going to be little in the way of virga. Mhmm, but your RH is high which is bad when the warm nose comes through. I may be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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