El Kabong Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM cut my ZR totals significantly....18z NAM actually shows .50" on the raw text Chris, The NWS forecast is strange down this way (Perry/Warner Robins). We're under an Ice Storm Warning, but the forecast on weather.gov makes no mention of any frozen precip until tomorrow night. Tomorrow is rain with a high of 35 with 1-2 inches of rain forecasted. The forecast doesn't seem to match up with the warning. Maybe you are AbsolutZero can shed some light on this. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surprisingly, this is in line with the high end of GSP totals for the southern foothills. Oh man.. finally some love from the GFS. Welcome home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know anything is possible but no way the low tracks INTO the CAD. Agree. Thermal profiles aloft and at the surface does not support and inland track. Its going to be offshore of Wilmington and Hatteras Not much has change from the little map I showed earlier. The wedge is established and the trough axis is already off shore with a developing LP in the western gulf. Like burger said earlier the path of least resistence. When does the wedge start cranking up... I don't see NE Winds at many locations Its there ... but this is the 925mb would give a good indication of where the zr boundary will be later when precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh man.. finally some love from the GFS. Welcome home.Im bullseyed at 14 inches on that one. Only 18 hours till kickoff, lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agree. Thermal profiles aloft and at the surface does not support and inland track. Its going to be offshore of Wilmington and Hatteras Its there ... but this is the 925mb would give a good indication of where the zr boundary will be later when precip moves in. v/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/925mb/925mb.gif?1392156239333[/img] It's hard to imagine the Euro being that far off, it's completely owned this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Im bullseyed at 14 inches on that one. Only 18 hours till kickoff, lock it up! I noticed that. I swear, any big storm that affects central NC seems to bullseye around Randolph County every single time. Hope the column supports all snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's hard to imagine the Euro being that far off, it's completely owned this storm. Exactly. Especially with so much agreement from it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HEAVENS TO BETSY!! This wording hasn't been written in this area in many years. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 430 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 GAZ027-036>039-042>044-046>051-055-057-121200- /O.CAN.KFFC.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140213T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KFFC.IS.W.0001.140212T0000Z-140213T1800Z/ MADISON-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-CARROLL-DOUGLAS- SOUTH FULTON-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO- CLAYTON-HENRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE... EAST POINT...CONYERS...COVINGTON 430 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN ICE STORM WARNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS IMPACTS WHICH ARE AS GREAT OR GREATER THAN THE WINTER STORM WARNING. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA WILL HAVE MORE ICE THAN SNOW WITH ITS IMPACTS FOR THIS EVENT. * LOCATIONS...ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO NEWNAN AND PEACHTREE CITY TO WARRENTON. * HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET. * TIMING...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END AS LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THESE HIGH ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A CATASTROPHIC EVENT. WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY AS ICE ACCUMULATES ON TREES AND POWERLINES AND BRINGS THEM DOWN. PLEASE PREPARE TO BE WITHOUT POWER IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS AS LONG AS A WEEK. ONCE THE ICE BEGINS TO MELT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FALLING ICE FROM BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THESE WIND SPEEDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ICE WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TREES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh man.. finally some love from the GFS. Welcome home. Does this map take into account all wintery precip? It get confusing trying to sort out which ones do and don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Exactly. Especially with so much agreement from it's ensembles. And the fact that all the other models today trended west toward the Euro, heck even the RGEM is further west than the Euro. Looks like Euro/DGEX will score the coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It could track through the Pamlico Sound and the Euro wouldn't be far off. We're talking about 50 miles here. A 50 mile track difference means a lot for parts of the Piedmont, but that's a pretty minor adjustment. RAH favored the Euro, but believed the storm would actually track 50 miles SE of the Euro's verbatim solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh man.. finally some love from the GFS. Welcome home That's the first time I've seen that little blob in Davidson County show up. It looks like 14-15"? Just wow! When does the deformation band set up and how long could the triad/foothills be under it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll leave this here..... Glenn Burns @GlennBurnsWSB 14m NWS upgraded south metro and points east to an ICE STORM WARNING. Threat has now turned from CATASTROPHIC to BIBLICAL! #wsbtv That's funny, but I know it shouldn't be, you people are nuts if you want an ice storm! Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WPC and others have explained why the Euro and other models are too farwest with the tracck beccause of the wedge that is set up. The Euro might have the overall idea right but that doesn't mean it has the exact track right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ice storm warning coming out for ATL metro and EC Georgia. Jim Cantore left Columbia and headed to Augusta. Which is odd. I mean; KCAE handles that I believe; but.. modeling is looking odd and pretty bad for that area possibly down that way. I could only assume Macon and points North would have a pretty strong shot at Winter weather? EDIT; nvm; checked your grids out. Cool. Kcae looks a little less icey; but I don't know what will verify for anyone located there guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The rgem has trended west all day. The rap looks like it's going to phase early too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 good news on the temp front for many, hrrr looking like pure snow thru 5am for a large portion of ga and upper sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I actually don't like the trends for ZR here...I do think we see some, but it might be delayed because we might not get down to 32 as soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I actually don't like the trends for ZR here...I do think we see some, but it might be delayed because we might not get down to 32 as soon.... It honestly sounds like you really want a huge ice storm there. I'd be praying for no ice trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 good news on the temp front for many, hrrr looking like pure snow thru 5am for a large portion of ga and upper sc. The HRRR has a tendency to be overly cold on ptypes beyond 8 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No I don't want a huge ice storm here at all. I just have a really big forecast area to make a forecast for and its very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The HRRR has a tendency to be overly cold on ptypes beyond 8 hours or so. Yeah, it kind of does seem unrealistic...snow reaching that far south? I'd say trend that about 50 miles north. I still think Atlanta will probably get some front end snow before the change to sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jim Cantore left Columbia and headed to Augusta. Jeez.... you know it's bad when Jim Cantore comes to your town. Well? Do I need to try and nut him, guys? Also, that GFS has got to be ZR as well as snow depth, right? Right? I don't want 3-4" of snow on top of the ice... Edit: I see Jon's response. Was fairly sure it accounted for all wintery precip anyhow. We're only due for maybe .1-.2" of IP/SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No I don't want a huge ice storm here at all. I just have a really big forecast area to make a forecast for and its very difficult. This will be deleted, and rightfully so, but I have a suggestion for your forecast. Just go on air and say, "Remember when we were teenagers and went out on a Saturday night all excited but not knowing if we would get screwed or not? It's like that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does this map take into account all wintery precip? It get confusing trying to sort out which ones do and don't. yeah. People are getting excited because it shows their backyard with 12", that's all. I'm sure soundings tell a different story. Edit: KCLT 12z GFS left, 18z GFS right. Unless the "S" shape means Snow, they're looking at a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18Z GFS is an absolutely amazing run for ATL-AHN. I think it is the most bullish yet for IP/snow combined. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For anyone wanting a good lesson on rain and snow lines, thicknesses, problems with using 850 temps as a whole.. this is a great start! http://www.wxonline.info/topics/thickness_pcp.html Here you can view the real time winter critical thicknesses http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Just hover over "Winter Weather" and find the critical thicknesses area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 the models are holding solid at 2" expected of frzn rain from what I can tell. Jim Cantore left Columbia and headed to Augusta. Which is odd. I mean; KCAE handles that I believe; but.. modeling is looking odd and pretty bad for that area possibly down that way. I could only assume Macon and points North would have a pretty strong shot at Winter weather? EDIT; nvm; checked your grids out. Cool. Kcae looks a little less icey; but I don't know what will verify for anyone located there guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 yeah. People are getting excited because it shows their backyard with 12", that's all. I'm sure soundings tell a different story. Yeah, that map is very misleading for those in the IP/ZR zones. I'd say north of I-85 would where it's more accurate, for what it's worth. Snow maps in general are not the most accurate things ever made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just looked at 18z GFS bufkit for RDU. Looks like first 0.75 inches of QPF or so is all snow per soundings. About 0.25-0.3 that is freezing rain, then last 0.1 is snow. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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