deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am actually in shock...FFC has almost pulled ALL ZR mentioning from the forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually, sounding for Shelby not too bad -- 850s at +.2C for one three hour segment, otherwise sub freezing through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS GSP Afternoon Forecast Discussion 000FXUS62 KGSP 112016AFDGSPAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC316 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014.SYNOPSIS...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHTAND TOMORROW BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION.A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAYINTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE DRY AND WARMING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLESIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 245 PM...RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLENIN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE UPSTATE. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGESINDICATED ONLY A NARROW BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MTNS ANDFOOTHILLS. AS THE CLOUD DECK THICKNESSES DECREASE AND FORCING TRACKSEAST...EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDBECOME LIGHT. IN ADDITION...WET BULB TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE GA ANDTHE UPSTATE HAVE RECOVERED SLIGHTLY TO THE L30S. BASED ON THE LATESTSATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE COVERAGE OF SNOW BANDS ANDPOTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLYBY 4 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGHTHE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A 1035 MBHIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGE SW ACROSS THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NE GA. LLVL NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THEFOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...LIKELY ADVECTING LOWER DWPTS ACROSS THECWA. AT THE MID LEVELS...A TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN ACROSS THEARKLATX REGION LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTEDTO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON...THEBLENDED SATELLITE PW INDICATES A POOL OF 170-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THESOUTHEAST. PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP EASILY AS LLVL ISENTROPICLIFT...ESPECIALLY AT 290 K...SPREADS ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERNCAROLINAS. ALSO...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT JET WILL PIVOTOVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN A STRONG BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. IWILL TIME POPS FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 9Z. BASED ONMODEL SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. LOWTEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L20S WITHIN THE MTNVALLEYS TO U20S ELSEWHERE. SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...WITH AN INCHEXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS...LIGHT AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH.WED...THE H5 TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF WEST OF THE REGION ANDSTRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THECOMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILLSUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE H85 LOWAPPROACHES FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON...A WEAK WARM NOSEINCREASES FROM THE EAST. USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS...IT APPEARSTHAT THE WARM LAYER MAY PARTIAL MELT PRECIP ABOVE H9. HOWEVER...SFCTEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE U20S ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THEDAY. PRECIP IMPACTED BY THE WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY FALL ASSN/IP...WITH FZRA ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN TIER. SNOWFALL MAYRANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...TO 2 TO3 INCHES WHERE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FALLS.&&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 315 PM...WINTER STORM WILL STILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNINGOF THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NITE AND ACROSSTHE AREA THU. AT THE SFC...THE MILLER-A LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING UP THESOUTHEAST COAST WED NITE THEN UP TO NEW ENGLAND ON THU. AS THE LOWMOVES UP THE COAST A WARM NOSE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF I-85WED EVENING THEN DISAPPEARS WED NITE AS COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THEDEPARTING LOW. THAT SAID...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THESW LATE WED NITE INTO THU. OF COURSE...PRECIP WILL BECOMING TO ANEND RAPIDLY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STILL...AS QPF AMOUNTS WILLBE RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD...ADDITIONAL SNOWAMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR SRN CWFA...TO 2 TO 4INCHES ACROSS MOST OF NE GA AND THE UPSTATE...AND 2 TO 6...MAINLYWITH A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT...ACROSS NC. ADDITIONAL ICEACCUMULATIONS AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH WILL OCCUR OVER SRNGREENWOOD...CHESTER AND UNION NC COUNTIES. LIGHTER AMOUNTS WILLACCUMULATE OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES INTO ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND LAURENS COUNTIES. LIGHT ICE COULD ALSO ACCUMULATE OVERTHE SERN SECTIONS OF YORK...MECKLENBURG...CABARRUS AND ROWANCOUNTIES.A CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVESACROSS FRI NITE. AT THE SFC...THE CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE AREAFRIDAY NITE AS WELL. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SOME PRECIP WILL FALLOUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC WILL BE OVER THE MTNS WHICHTAPERS OFF BY DAYBREAK SAT. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS AS WELL.TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENUF FOR PRECIP TO START AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNSIF PRECIP MOVES IN EARLY ENUF. HOWEVER...PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLYRAIN ON FRIDAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRI NITE AS COLDAIR FILTERS IN. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OFTHE MTNS. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHESTELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am actually in shock...FFC has almost pulled ALL ZR mentioning from the forecast.... Yeah, it looks like a total of 5-8" of sleet & snow if my addition is correct in the zone forecast. Wow...that would be an epic storm for ATL and points north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Love the NWS forecast... 3 to 5 during the day tomorrow then an additional 4 to 8 tomorrow night. I'll take my 7 to 13, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS -- only 3-7 total in GSO? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rah&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=82.5&map_y=73.83001708984375&x=83&y=74#.UvqO2U2YaUk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS -- only 3-7 total in GSO? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rah&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=82.5&map_y=73.83001708984375&x=83&y=74#.UvqO2U2YaUk That's interesting. Just a few miles SW where I am it's 5-11". Difference is, no sleet mentioned in my forecast. EDIT: Sleet is mentioned in my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS -- only 3-7 total in GSO? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rah&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=82.5&map_y=73.83001708984375&x=83&y=74#.UvqO2U2YaUk Depends on where you click. One mile to the north you get 4-10. Bottom Line: No need to stress over the point and click forecasts. Other complaints about NWS or TV forecasts should be in banter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ice storm warning coming out for ATL metro and EC Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Depends on where you click. One mile to the north you get 4-10. No need to stress over the point and click forecasts. I know. It just shows you where NWS is seeing snow/sleet changeover. I find that interesting and pertinent to this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure if anyone posted this, but ILM did a great job of explianing what a disaster one inch of ice is. INCREDIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED. STORM-TOTAL LIQUID QPF OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL END UP DEPOSITING AS MUCHAS 1 INCH OF ICE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALLEXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN SPOTS FROM BENNETTSVILLE ACROSS ROBESONCOUNTY TO JUST NORTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN. IN TERMS OF HISTORICAL PRECEDENT: AN ICE STORM IN JANUARY 2004DROPPED UP TO ONE INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS COLUMBUS COUNTYNC...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION.SEVERE DISRUPTIONS TO POWER AND PHONE UTILITIES PERSISTED FOR AWEEK OR MORE AFTERWARD. The damage from that storm in 2004, in which .5 to .75 fell, was comparable to the damage here from Hurricanes Fran and Floyd in the Pee Dee. I don't think people realize that inland areas are looking at damage that they may be used to from a landfalling major hurricane. This could be the icy version of Hurricane Hugo inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP has me for 6-10 total . 4-6 wed and 2-4 wed night. They mention an area of 2-6 wed night, I think it was east of my area. They think some sleet may mix in at times, gues that's why they aren't going with the higher totals. Depending on how the band sets up , I feel 12-14 is easily possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Check point and click again. ZR is in the grids all along wide swath paralleling I-20 with ZR/IP to the north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP Updated Snowfall Map http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow_web.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GAZ021-022-032>034-044>046-055-057-121330-CHEROKEE-CLAYTON-COBB-DEKALB-FORSYTH-GWINNETT-HENRY-NORTH FULTON-ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...CONYERS...DECATUR...EAST POINT...LAWRENCEVILLE...MARIETTA310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY....TONIGHT...WINDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEETEARLY...THEN SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWAND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TOONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 20MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDY. SNOW AND SLEETACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OFAN INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THENSNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THEUPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION80 PERCENT..THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS10 TO 15 MPH..THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS5 TO 10 MPH. Up to 8" in ATL Metro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 New NWS Raleigh video Great discussion! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQiL1enZrwc&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM looks good. At hr 36 there's a 1001 low over CHS, QPF field is huge, not sure about amounts yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow 18z RGEM has 995 LP just east of RAH at hr42. Lot's of QPF CLT and GSO probably change to IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe south of ATL, but ATL Metro is under a WSW for 5-8" of Snow/Sleet + ice. AbsZero is a met at the FFC office in case you didn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM looks good. At hr 36 there's a 1001 low over CHS, QPF field is huge, not sure about amounts yet.down to 988 at 48. Its a bomb! I will see the snowfall map soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM looks good. At hr 36 there's a 1001 low over CHS, QPF field is huge, not sure about amounts yet. Tracks it up I-95, actually dry slots CLT and GSO, you must be in the foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 AbsZero is a met at the FFC office in case you didn't know. Didn't know that - Thanks. Can you have both products out at the same time? Meaning...can you be under a WSW and an Ice Storm Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tracks it up I-95, actually dry slots CLT and GSO, you must be in the foothills? Yes, sorry for the imby style post, looks good for some* I should've said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM tracks it up 95, over RIC, over DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP Updated Snowfall Map http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow_web.png Oh snap.. 12" near Wow-ville. I'm glad GSP is on board the Euro train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM would be a big sleet storm for as far west as HKY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Talk about a great update with the given guidance today. Or course the new map shows what has falling today. Around the southern foothills, we have nothing on the ground. So Looking a solid 12" top max with hints of 13" around the area. Oh snap.. 12" near Wow-ville. I'm glad GSP is on board the Euro train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes, sorry for the imby style post, looks good for some* I should've said. Looks great for AVL, Boone and east TN...RGEM is a pretty good model too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah RGEM is warm... looks like sleet through most of the event for CLT to GSO, but it's been on the warm side for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh snap.. 12" near Wow-ville. I'm glad GSP is on board the Euro train. The Euro has been rock solid... I see no reason why anyone would stray off the path BTW.... US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC New snowfall forecast map. This INCLUDES what has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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