The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

[packfan98]

The big problem I have with that is he is using the NAM. NAM could be right but it looked especially like garbage today. 

 

I also have the same issue with that.  He has been bashing the American models all week and then breaks them down in detail to make a specific forecast without considering the models he has said were superior.  I'm not trying to banter up this thread and do not want to rant, but that is a valid critique.

[Brick Tamland]

DT did a **** poor job with that forecast. He looked at the extracted data from wxcaster and put that tripe out. 

 

He also had a lot more for RDU yesterday.

[BullCityWx]

I just dont see any possible way that Charlotte ends up with half an inch of QPF as ZR. DT has proven before that he cant even FIND charlotte on a map. 

[Brick Tamland]

WXSOUTH ‏@WxSouth 26m
@stormcoolio Havent seen it yet. But compare vapor and water content now. All are too dry. 2" qpf ATL, GSP, CLT RDU zones 1.5 AVL

 

[Lookout]

I didn't see this posted.

 

canadian was a little further north with it's axis of heaviest precip. That's a lot of sleet.

 

 

[burgertime]

I just dont see any possible way that Charlotte ends up with half an inch of QPF as ZR. DT has proven before that he cant even FIND charlotte on a map. 

 

Yep, he is not alone with the 3-6 but...I just doubt that verifies....the ZR stuff is just the literal icing on the cake. It will be tough being on that line though .We'll know if sleet starts mixing in around 7pm or so. 

[strongwxnc]

That total accum map is unreal..

I didn't see this posted.

 

canadian was a little further north with it's axis of heaviest precip. That's a lot of sleet.

 

 

 

 

[Lookout]

I just dont see any possible way that Charlotte ends up with half an inch of QPF as ZR. DT has proven before that he cant even FIND charlotte on a map. 

That idea is pretty absurd for sure. I doubt he ever gives the southeast more than a passing glance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That total accum map is unreal..

 

Could be some flooding issues in extreme eastern nc...that's 4 to 6 inches of rain being shown  there.

[packfan98]

Brad Panovich's updated snow map

 

[Thrasher Fan]

I recall (could have been a few years back) someone around here had a paper about this issue.

 

 

WXSOUTH also stated that a few hours back:

WXSOUTH ‏@WxSouth  4h

Will be watching RAP model closely for signs of convection tomorrow in Gulf. Could have impact further north. #sewx #snow #ice

 

I'd love to get my hands on that at a future time. No need to go digging for it right now.

[strongwxnc]

Starting to come in line with others thoughts back into WNC .

Brad Panovich's updated snow map

 

[beanskip]

 I know it's nowcasting time, but 18z NAM showing interesting change at 5h through 18 hours -- earlier more robust phase than 12z at 24.

[jacobr57]

The SREF looks wetter for many. Not sure about other locations, but the AVL average is now at 11 inches.

[audioguy3107]

I didn't see this posted.

 

canadian was a little further north with it's axis of heaviest precip. That's a lot of sleet.

 

That is an absolute pounding.  Probably the heaviest sleet we'll see for quite awhile.  I saw your post earlier on the "finger of fun" ramping up in our area similar to 2011.  Usually with these intensifying systems we do get the moisture streak our ahead of the main batch, here's to hoping that the column will be cold enough for all snow.  I know we're close based on our location but I guess it'll be a game time decision to see how it unfolds.  Haven't been in front of the computer for awhile......any new indications come in lately that show where the ice/snow line may set up?  Our DP here is still below freezing and with the NE winds now kicking in, hopefully we won't warm much above the 33/34 mark.

[LithiaWx]

I just saw the 18z nam and want to comment on Atlanta and the northern burbs. I agree with Larry, I don't see this as freezing rain looking at some crude temperature maps in the upper levels. It's pretty cold all of the way through there is a warm bubble at 800-900 ish but it's not that warm. The rest of the column is cold and sections of it are very cold. This leads me to believe we are looking at sleet but the column is so cold I'm starting to think it could actually be snow.

[packfan98]

NWS Raleigh Afternoon Discussion.  Sounds Legit!!

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

...SIGNIFICANT IF NOT CRIPPLING WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...

P-TYPES FROM SNOW IN THE NW TO A MAJOR ICING IN THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A WINTER STORM THIS
PERIOD. AND FINALLY... A PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE. THE
12Z/OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE... WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SURFACE LOW TRACK ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF THE MODELS
CURRENT DEPICTION. WPC PREFERS THIS MODEL ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
STILL NOT HIGH... BUT IS INCREASING WITH TIME. THIS SOLUTION
ESSENTIALLY LEAVES OUR ONGOING FORECAST INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW
SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED. HOWEVER... THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD
NOTED IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WITH THE FINAL TRACK... AND THE
CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION TYPES... MEANING THAT A TRACK 50 MILES
LEFT (WEST) WOULD MEAN MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING (FREEZING RAIN)
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD REGION... AND
SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW/SLEET (FROZEN P-TYPE) ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION.

CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING WITH A STRONG HIGH (1035+ MB)...
DELIVERING VERY COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
(12Z/WED). THE HIGH DOES SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE SUPPLYING PLENTIFUL COLD DRY
INTO OUR REGION TO SUPPORT A MAJOR WINTER STORM. VERY STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT CORRESPONDS WITH THE VERY STRONG LIFT
ARRIVING OVER OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY CORRESPONDING QPF. MUCH OF THE QPF
WILL BE FROZEN/FREEZING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES EXPECTED.

BEGINNING TIME...THE PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK... REACHING THE
ALBEMARLE TO FAYETTEVILLE AREAS BY MID-MORNING... THEN THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS EITHER JUST BEFORE NOON (TRIAD) AND AROUND NOON IN
THE TRIANGLE. THE FAR NE ZONES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH POSSIBLY A
SLIGHTLY DELAYED ONSET OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT DUE TO LIKELY
BEING IN THE HEART OF THE VERY DRY COLD RIDGING DURING THE DAY.
REGARDLESS... ALL AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE IMPACT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION TYPES AND HAZARDS...PARTIALS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INCORPORATING MODEL OF CHOICE AND WPC PROBABILISTIC WINTER
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NW
PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION... SNOW MIXING WITH CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE AND
WADESBORO TO SOUTHERN PINES... RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. AND...
FINALLY SNOW CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE SE ZONES... FROM THE
SANDHILLS THROUGH THE SE COASTAL PLAIN REGION (FAY TO GSB TO NEAR
RWI).

A MAJOR...IF NOT CRIPPLING ICE STORM...APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS...THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT... AND
WESTERN...IF NOT ALL THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE WILL TRY TO SEGMENT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THREE OR FOUR GROUPS TO HONE IN ON THE
EXPECTED P-TYPE TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW (AND TRIAD) WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SE SIDE OF THE
TRIAD AS THERE MAY BE SOME MIX WITH SLEET (WED EVENING)... THEN
POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY LATE WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS NE AND SATURATION IS LOST ALOFT). FOR THE
REST OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND WADESBORO TO RALEIGH
AND ROANOKE RAPID... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN... THE WARM NOSE IS MOST PROMINENT IN
THE SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK THE LOW CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THE PREFERRED
EC WOULD ALLOW THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AFTER 1-3 INCHES FALLS...
THEN A TRANSITION TO A MAJOR ICING EVENT WED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ICE WILL COLLECT ON POWER LINES... TREES AND ALL EXPOSED
SURFACES TO A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS WOULD BE MAJOR ICING AND
IT COULD POSSIBLY REACH OR EXCEED SOME OF THE ICE STORM TOTALS AND
IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AS THE DECEMBER 2002 ICE STORM.

THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE A BRIEF SNOW TO START...
WITH AN INCH OR SO... THEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY. HERE... A MAJOR ICING EVENT IS
EXPECTED WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MORE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT SURFACE WARMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 32 OR 33.
LATENT HEAT (MELTING) AND HEAVY QPF SHOULD REDUCE THE ICING
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IF THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 31 OR BELOW THROUGH
THE EVENT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL CONTINUE.

AS IF THIS IS NOT ENOUGH...THE TRACK OF THE MID AND UPPER LOW MAY
BE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY. IF SO... SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN
ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWS WOULD BE FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE NORTH TO
THE VA BORDER. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE FINAL
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION
OF THE ACCUMULATING ADDITIONAL SNOW THURSDAY. FOR NOW... SNOW IS
LIKELY NORTH...A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN
ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE BEGINNING TO THE END
OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ONSET... THEN REACH 20-23 IN THE NW AND UPPER 20S SE.
THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE... REMAINING 27-
32 THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S.

[beanskip]

12z NAM at 30

 

18z NAM at 24

[deltadog03]

Im wondering if this is an error, but the updated Grid forecast for MCN shows nothing but rain tomorrow from FFC...hmmmm

[MillerA]

Channel 3 Charlotte going with nam

The NAM is likely a good estimate of snow totals. Looks like 4-8" along & NW of I 85 and 3-6" SE of I 85. #ncwx #scwx pic.twitter.com/GcQTKTr0DV

2:49pm - 11 Feb 14

[burgertime]

12z NAM at 30

namUS_500_avort_030.gif

 

18z NAM at 24

namUS_500_avort_024.gif

 

This run of the NAM also colder @850. 

[RaleighWx]

One update. I am going for a bit less freezing rain in NC eastern piedmont, more sleet/snow.

 

 

[beanskip]

Odd -- looks so more prodigious at 5h, but precip field doesn't respond and track seems about the same.

This run of the NAM also colder @850. 

[BrandoG20]

WSPA in Spartanburg SC just updated their totals map to 7-10+ inches of snow for the I-85 counties

[Wow]

Odd -- looks so more prodigious at 5h, but precip field doesn't respond and track seems about the same.

 

Still has a double barrel low .. bad feedback issues with the NAM.  Beyond 24 hrs it's useless.

[beanskip]

18z NAM comes west -- 850 temp issues into CLT.

[packbacker]

One update. I am going for a bit less freezing rain in NC eastern piedmont, more sleet/snow.

 

Curious, you seeing less of warm nose at 700/750?

[packbacker]

18z NAM comes west -- 850 temp issues into CLT.

 

Even past CLT, all the way to Shelby.  Don't by that, do you?

[packfan98]

18z NAM comes west -- 850 temp issues into CLT.

Didn't look good for the I-85 corridor in NC.  Looks to be all sleet/freezing rain except for a couple of hours on either end of the storm.  I wonder if this is because the storm is so much weaker on the nam? It doesn't get down to 1000mb until its on the MA coast.  No way for it to funnel down the cold temperatures because it's not wrapped up.

[beanskip]

I'm with Wow -- phase was earlier and stronger, but the storm was weaker. I don't get it.

Didn't look good for the I-85 corridor in NC.  Looks to be all sleet/freezing rain except for a couple of hours on either end of the storm.  I wonder if this is because the storm is so much weaker on the nam? It doesn't get down to 1000mb until its on the MA coast.  No way for it to funnel down the cold temperatures because it's not wrapped up.

[LithiaWx]

I like the forecast from FFC. I think they have done a fantastic job thus far.