burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So, it is safe to say that serve was held in term of the 00z run? seems to be right in line with WPC, and many other thoughts arounds here. I assume NW and those location should stay all SN. Yep held serve was slightly west with the track that the 00z was so that helps out WNC a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jackpot area not much different from 00z this run. GSP - HKY-CLT. CLT is on that edge where verbatim there would be a lot of mixing in the heart of it. Still looking like 6 inches plus though for CLT. HKY looks to be around a foot.I'm assuming burg that that band extends on up into southern va and then up 81 correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 well if nothing else the euro is consistant. Unbelievably steady with this storm. could regain it's crown with this one. Also noticed that it seems a little slower than the other models. Edit.....not the case the latest GFS is lock step with the euro on the timing of the precip. For the upstate looks to be a 24 hour duration starting at about 6 tommorow morning and ending aroung 6 am on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris, Yes, I still think crippling ZR for the MCN area. Also, north to Forsyth and maybe up toward the Griffin/Jackson area. I'm predicting that the dividing line between mostly ZR and mostly IP should be in the area generally about halfway between MCN and ATL or a little further north. I would say thats about right as well. The good DOC just came in and its actually a little colder than the GFS! Drops some ZR and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm assuming burg that that band extends on up into southern va and then up 81 correct? It does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Going off of James QPF output above at assuming 10:1, that is very nice for KGSP. Yep held serve was slightly west with the track that the 00z was so that helps out WNC a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Going off of James QPF output above at assuming 10:1, that is very nice for KGSP. if you believe their maps.....looks like 850's stay below freezing for he duration and they have GSP squarely in the 12 to 15" band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've shed two degrees in the last half hour, so the cold is filtering in now. Keep it coming, please, and all through the column. I've seen a ton of zr, but I've never seen a foot of snow in Ga....and if not the snow, then pile on the sleet..I can never get enough of that. zr is as much fun as having a weak tornado go down your street. All destruction with no redeeming qualities, unless you're a fear junky T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Going off of James QPF output above at assuming 10:1, that is very nice for KGSP. Yeah, GSP appears to be all-snow. Big Frosty's domain never has 850s above -3C. Totally hammered there in the northern foothills. BTW, GSO's 850s actually do get to 1C at one point (probably more like 0.5C rounded up based on the isotherms, but it probably does sleet for a little bit). I'm going to go ahead and follow WPC's discussion and correct it SE a tick and call it a day. RDU gets around 0.6-0.7" QPF before it changes over from snow, based on 850s. The GSO-CLT corridor is gusting in the mid-40s MPH at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How are things looking for RDU for these latest runs? Still significant transition? (also, I have learned more about weather on this board in the last 2 years than I can even explain. Thanks for all the information you guys provide. It is very educational.) Definitly a big transition. The real question is do we go over to rain and if so how much. This will depend on the exact track of the storm and the stength of the CAD. I would think there will be a big difference of wintery totals through the Triangle from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would say thats about right as well. The good DOC just came in and its actually a little colder than the GFS! Drops some ZR and then some. Chris, It should be an interesting forecast for your viewing area. It looks like Macon and points N and NE stand the highest chance of major ZR accumulations. As you head further S toward my neck of the woods (Perry, GA) and the SE parts of your viewing area, I'm hoping that the accumulations will stay below .25" Just like the last storm, there will likely be a pretty sharp gradient in accumulations. It just concerns me that the past 24 hours have seen the models slowly trend colder with the surface temps. Such is the nature of CAD forecasting! I look forward to seeing your updated forecast. BTW, we're running about 3 degrees under the forecasted high. Currently sitting at 41 degrees. Not sure if the break in the precip will allow the temp to go up any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will be watching to see if the finger of fun develops out ahead of our main precipitation shield as it will often do in these cases (remember that big band of snow that dropped several inches per hour back in 2011?) Well the rap is showing this and tracks it almost over the exact same area as 2011. Soundings indicate all snow right now here so hopefully this happens and I can make up for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, GSP appears to be all-snow. Big Frosty's domain never has 850s above -3C. Totally hammered there in the northern foothills. BTW, GSO's 850s actually do get to 1C at one point (probably more like 0.5C rounded up based on the isotherms, but it probably does sleet for a little bit). I'm going to go ahead and follow WPC's discussion and correct it SE a tick and call it a day. RDU gets around 0.6-0.7" QPF before it changes over from snow, based on 850s. The GSO-CLT corridor is gusting in the mid-40s MPH at the height of the storm. based on that, I wonder if we see blizzard warnings issued tomorrow. 40 mph gusts and massive rates along OBY would seem to qualify for that, particularly down here where that is exceedingly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I dont envy you mods right now. I've rarely been reading through and see so much "IMBY" stuff. GUYS; its IMPOSSIBLE for us to answer that for all of your areas. We have ours to worry about too. Just put it in the banter thread located here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42795-burns-big-banter-bonanza/ . Nice people may help you out there. Anyway; we have been all sleet and snow pretty much all day here in Northern Lexington. My friend in the Southern part has barely seen much sleet. Such a cutoff. GGEM has a nice deformation band coming through even KCAE at the end. Hope it actually verifies.. but other modeling try to pull it away too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Definitly a big transition. The real question is do we go over to rain and if so how much. This will depend on the exact track of the storm and the stength of the CAD. I would think there will be a big difference of wintery totals through the Triangle from west to east. FYI..per Euro, Burlington is solidly below freezing the whole time, Chapel-Hill is below freezing right up until 12z Thursday. Shows you what a shift 50 miles will make. Euro is 50-75 miles west of GEFS/CMC/UK. But the models have all been ticking west towards it. Euro tracks flips all the major cities up north to rain (DCA, BWI, PHL, LGA, BOS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From WSB Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If 45 mph winds, should NWS break out the B word? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris, It should be an interesting forecast for your viewing area. It looks like Macon and points N and NE stand the highest chance of major ZR accumulations. As you head further S toward my neck of the woods (Perry, GA) and the SE parts of your viewing area, I'm hoping that the accumulations will stay below .25" Just like the last storm, there will likely be a pretty sharp gradient in accumulations. It just concerns me that the past 24 hours have seen the models slowly trend colder with the surface temps. Such is the nature of CAD forecasting! I look forward to seeing your updated forecast. I agree...got to love CAD forecasting..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No answer in the banter thread so I'll put it here since it's a regional question... What is the Euro showing in regards to the dividing area between mostly rain and the crippling ice? Forecasts had been showing the greatest probs of .5" and more west of a Burgaw-Conway-Andrews line, but I noticed mets had been citing the GFS strongly. What are zr totals in that area per the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From WSB Atlanta. "Internal Model", I assume? Don't get me wrong, I'd take 5" in Dunwoody, but I haven't seen that on any of the good models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GSO-CLT corridor is gusting in the mid-40s MPH at the height of the storm. That is similar to what it was showing on last night's run. If that pans out there would be a lot of power outages in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No answer in the banter thread so I'll put it here since it's a regional question... What is the Euro showing in regards to the dividing area between mostly rain and the crippling ice? Forecasts had been showing the greatest probs of .5" and more west of a Burgaw-Conway-Andrews line, but I noticed mets had been citing the GFS strongly. What are zr totals in that area per the euro? holding strong at .75"+ of frz rain. ground zero from augusta thru cola and i95 east towards conway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will be watching to see if the finger of fun develops out ahead of our main precipitation shield as it will often do in these cases (remember that big band of snow that dropped several inches per hour back in 2011?) Well the rap is showing this and tracks it almost over the exact same area as 2011. Soundings indicate all snow right now here so hopefully this happens and I can make up for today What gets me is you are usually ground 0 for zr in a cad, but you look to get the good stuff this go round. So much for your rain/snow hole, lol. Good luck to you! Hope you are feeling so good now you can go out and play some. I actually want a bit of zr..maybe a quarter inch to thin the tree tops, but anything more, will make me warped and twisted I like riding the edge, because that's where I get my sleet chances, but in a big one like this, it gets totally scary. I'm still betting on the zr line to be down around Barnesville, but it'll be close. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 "Internal Model", I assume? Don't get me wrong, I'd take 5" in Dunwoody, but I haven't seen that on any of the good models... Well considering that part of GA got 6 inches from this "minor" event today, this could even be conservative with a much strong low developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z Euro is some significant snow/sleet I think for RDU before changing to a period of rain/freezing rain then back to snow Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No answer in the banter thread so I'll put it here since it's a regional question... What is the Euro showing in regards to the dividing area between mostly rain and the crippling ice? Forecasts had been showing the greatest probs of .5" and more west of a Burgaw-Conway-Andrews line, but I noticed mets had been citing the GFS strongly. What are zr totals in that area per the euro? Shoot me a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 holding strong at .75"+ of frz rain. ground zero from augusta thru cola and i95 east towards conway. Looks like about the same areas as the GFS, though the GFS is predicting north of 2 inches of ice. I'd have to say simply based on history, the Euro would be favored in terms of the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No answer in the banter thread so I'll put it here since it's a regional question... What is the Euro showing in regards to the dividing area between mostly rain and the crippling ice? Forecasts had been showing the greatest probs of .5" and more west of a Burgaw-Conway-Andrews line, but I noticed mets had been citing the GFS strongly. What are zr totals in that area per the euro? I think this little tidbit from WPC is important they haven't liked the highly amped output of the Euro the entire time and also cautioned its extreme solutions a day or so ago and they think its going to go east maybe even more than where they are shifting the track. A couple of mets up here have also been cautioning the further west track the Euro had since it tends to overdo the phase or at least do it too quickly a 50-100 mile shift to the east will have HUGE implications especially in your area and mine the next 24 hrs. THE ECMWF HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUN OCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCE ENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...AS THERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY IN THE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTHERN STATES. ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER AND INTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is my third call map... This storm is going to be big for the Carolinas, northern Georgia, and into Virginia. This storm could dump anywhere from a foot of snow in some areas. I would not be shocked to see some areas in the foothills and western piedmont of NC and into central Virginia pick up a foot of snow. Also, thundersnow will be possible with this system. The steep mid-level lapse rates with the amount of energy will help to increase the chance of thundersnow. The EURO is holding steady, and I am using this as my primary model for my forecast. It is the most consistent and has the best handle on this storm, in my opinion. For more information, check out my website, http://wxjordan.com/weather/forecast/307-less-than-24-hours-away-from-winter-storm. I break down the timings there. THIS IS ONE OF THE LARGEST WINTER STORMS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC HAS SEEN IN 3+ YEARS. BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well considering that part of GA got 6 inches from this "minor" event today, this could even be conservative with a much strong low developing. Sure, but I don't see any way we get 5" of snow in Dekalb/North Fulton. Even the crazy public models only have 2" of SN on top of the IP/ZR at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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