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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Based on the 12Z GFs verbatim, here's my take for the ATL-AHN area:

 

1) From the Atlanta airport north through the northern burbs and over to the Athens area, it looks similar to 2/1979 and 1/1988 with ~1-1.25" of qpf as IP. Some, that would mean a whopping 3-5" of IP on top of whatever else is already on the ground if it verifies! Other models have supported this. So, I continue to predict another 2/1979/1/1988 sort of IP storm. I still expect temp's to fall into the middle 20's for a decent portion of it. The IP will start at ~9PM-midnight tonight and last through ~10 PM-midnight tomorrow. So, I'm predicting about 24 hours of mainly IP (similar to 2/1979)! Then there should be at least some snow late tomorrow night on top of all of that after the IP changes over. How much is in question. However, 1" or even a bit more would seem to be a reasonable possibility. So, all told, there could easily be ~4-6" of IP/S to fall with just the 2nd wave, alone, a really big/historic event for the area especially when considering that would be mainly IP, which is obviously much denser than snow.

 

2) Per the 12Z GFS at KFFC, they're looking at the risk of much more ZR with ~1.10" of ZR, a severe ZR, possible from ~10 PM-midnight tonight through ~midnight tomorrow night followed by a little bit of IP and S. It isn't far from getting mainly IP there. Regardless, that area and near Tony could very well get mainly ZR. I'm on the fence down around FFC/Tony. They could go either way or be ~a 50/50 mix. I'd be extra prepared down that way for a really severe ZR.

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WxJordan

WxJordan

Posted
Posted

Does anyone forsee the dynamics of this storm producing Thundersnow?

 

Yes, there will be steep mid level lapse rates when the deformation band comes through, so there will be convective elements that will have the potential to cause thundersnow. I would not be shocked for there to be reports of thunder as the comma-head pulls through.

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triadwx

triadwx

Posted
Posted

As with what HurricaneTracker and Phil have said, this is likely going to play out in the Euro's favor. We were talking about it in the mountain thread, but whats the verification of the Euro when it's ensembles agree? 97%. The GFS and NAM aren't going to win this storm, so I'm quite dumbfounded as to why they're still being discussed, especially when they aren't initializing correctly as to what is actually happening. I know a lot of y'all in central NC don't want the sleet or the ice, but I honestly feel like a lot are being unrealistic putting any weight into either the GFS or the NAM.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

 Based on the 12Z GFs verbatim, here's my take for the ATL-AHN area:

 

1) From the Atlanta airport north through the northern burbs and over to the Athens area, it looks similar to 2/1979 and 1/1988 with ~1-1.25" of qpf as IP. Some, that would mean a whopping 3-5" of IP on top of whatever else is already on the ground if it verifies! Other models have supported this. So, I continue to predict another 2/1979/1/1988 sort of IP storm. I still expect temp's to fall into the middle 20's for a decent portion of it. The IP will start at ~9PM-midnight tonight and last through ~10 PM-midnight tomorrow. So, I'm predicting about 24 hours of mainly IP (similar to 2/1979)! Then there should be at least some snow late tomorrow night on top of all of that after the IP changes over. How much is in question. However, 1" or even a bit more would seem to be a reasonable possibility. So, all told, there could easily be ~4-6" of IP/S to fall with just the 2nd wave, alone, a really big/historic event for the area especially when considering that would be mainly IP, which is obviously much denser than snow.

 

2) Per the 12Z GFS at KFFC, they're looking at the risk of much more ZR with ~1.10" of ZR, a severe ZR, possible from ~10 PM-midnight tonight through ~midnight tomorrow night followed by a little bit of IP and S. It isn't far from getting mainly IP there. Regardless, that area and near Tony could very well get mainly ZR. I'm on the fence down around FFC/Tony. They could go either way or be ~a 50/50 mix. I'd be extra prepared down that way for a really severe ZR.

Sounds about right for them up there and super nasty....Larry, you see what the GFS is showing from the 12z run for me?  over 2" of ZR!!!  You still thinking Crippling ice storm here?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Sounds about right for them up there and super nasty....Larry, you see what the GFS is showing from the 12z run for me?  over 2" of ZR!!!  You still thinking Crippling ice storm here?

 

Chris,

 Yes, I still think crippling ZR for the MCN area. Also, north to Forsyth and maybe up toward the Griffin/Jackson area. I'm predicting that the dividing line between mostly ZR and mostly IP should be in the area generally about halfway between MCN and ATL or a little further north.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Per Phil's discussion on the Euro, the recent model diagnostics discussion is right on point. (They just needed Phil in the room to push them over the edge to a full Euro embrace!)

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

THE ECMWF HAS STRONGSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUNOCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCEENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...ASTHERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONEWILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOESIN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THENAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY INTHE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE INTHE SOUTHERN STATES.ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER ANDINTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHAND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK.
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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

HRRR Model for use going into the heart of our Winter Storm.

 

One of the tools we will be using the high granular HRRR model as we go into the heart of the storm which should be very interesting in determining where the critical cut over lines will be for precipitation types.

 

For those not familiar with the HRRR model, it runs every hour and out to only 15 hours.

 

Free Access:

 

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

 

Soundings:

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/soundings/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/soundings/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014021115&plot_type=allskewt_GSO_72317&fcst=00&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=hrrr&ptitle=Model%20Soundings&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=skewt&adtfn=1&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0

 

They are also available with better high quality graphics on various paid subscription sites.

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jharv

jharv

Posted
Posted

As with what HurricaneTracker and Phil have said, this is likely going to play out in the Euro's favor. We were talking about it in the mountain thread, but whats the verification of the Euro when it's ensembles agree? 97%. The GFS and NAM aren't going to win this storm, so I'm quite dumbfounded as to why they're still being discussed, especially when they aren't initializing correctly as to what is actually happening. I know a lot of y'all in central NC don't want the sleet or the ice, but I honestly feel like a lot are being unrealistic putting any weight into either the GFS or the NAM.

My guess is due to widely/freely available GFS/NAM data. When people that have Euro access do comment, its often for a relatively small geographic area.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 Based on the 12Z GFs verbatim, here's my take for the ATL-AHN area:

 

1) From the Atlanta airport north through the northern burbs and over to the Athens area, it looks similar to 2/1979 and 1/1988 with ~1-1.25" of qpf as IP. Some, that would mean a whopping 3-5" of IP on top of whatever else is already on the ground if it verifies! Other models have supported this. So, I continue to predict another 2/1979/1/1988 sort of IP storm. I still expect temp's to fall into the middle 20's for a decent portion of it. The IP will start at ~9PM-midnight tonight and last through ~10 PM-midnight tomorrow. So, I'm predicting about 24 hours of mainly IP (similar to 2/1979)! Then there should be at least some snow late tomorrow night on top of all of that after the IP changes over. How much is in question. However, 1" or even a bit more would seem to be a reasonable possibility. So, all told, there could easily be ~4-6" of IP/S to fall with just the 2nd wave, alone, a really big/historic event for the area especially when considering that would be mainly IP, which is obviously much denser than snow.

 

2) Per the 12Z GFS at KFFC, they're looking at the risk of much more ZR with ~1.10" of ZR, a severe ZR, possible from ~10 PM-midnight tonight through ~midnight tomorrow night followed by a little bit of IP and S. It isn't far from getting mainly IP there. Regardless, that area and near Tony could very well get mainly ZR. I'm on the fence down around FFC/Tony. They could go either way or be ~a 50/50 mix. I'd be extra prepared down that way for a really severe ZR.

Well, I'm figuring on a mix, but planning on the z monster.  I figure there is no way I get the piling on like in 73..no way that happens again.  But 3/4's would be bad.   I've readied what I can.  I've got the Moles working on sleet, so we'll see.  I've already got .7+ in the gage.  It will get bad folks, so be as ready as you can, but realize you can't get fully ready for what may be coming.  It's always worse than you imagine with zr like the models keep wanting to bring down on us. Put on your self sufficiency shoes, because help may be days away.

  And Larry, get off that fence.  You know I'll get mostly sleet.  I've been good all these years, lol.  Just no way I see 73 again, or even the 1 1/2 in the 80's, that would be kicking a traumatized guy when he's down :)  But...at least I've got some 'sperience!  T

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

So, it is safe to say that serve was held in term of the 00z run? seems to be right in line with WPC, and many other thoughts arounds here. I assume NW and those location should stay all SN.

Jackpot area not much different from 00z this run. GSP - HKY-CLT. CLT is on that edge where verbatim there would be a lot of mixing in the heart of it. Still looking like 6 inches plus though for CLT. HKY looks to be around a foot. 

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Mt. Airy looks like the jackpot on this run to me.

 

I'm glad that WPC thought that the Euro's track needs to be corrected a bit to the SE.  That should allow those of us on the line to sleep a little better.

 

Today's Euro is wetter than last night's for sure.  1.5" for GSO, 1.7" for Mt. Airy, 1.4" for CLT, 1.5" for GSP, 1.4" for HKY.

 

DC still gets hammered, but they only get around 1.5" unlike the 2.5" from last night's run.

 

Looks like NYC changes over to rain for much of the storm up there.

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