Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After the 06z gfs gave cae 2.76" of zr and the 12z nam said 1.85"....I'm not looking at any more models stop looking at the NAM haha what a garbage model with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After the 06z gfs gave cae 2.76" of zr and the 12z nam said 1.85"....I'm not looking at any more models Well you should..it might be the last time you see them for a month.....or ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ummmmmmm.....UH OH???http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kmcn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would like to make a friendly suggestion to the new people before we get closer to this big event. Could everyone edit their profiles and enter the location info (nearest weather station id or your city/state). Then we can see where you are located and not have to ask you. It'll help in real-time tracking when you post. Thanks !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This... this is looking more and more like a KU snowstorm. Euro ensembles are in very good agreement on this outcome now. I'm going to get on my high horse for a brief moment, but I think the GFS and NAM are doing a horrible job with this event (wednesday and beyond). When I look at models and try to get an assessment of what is going to happen, the first thing I do is look at the ECMWF and its ensembles. When the ECMWF is showing an overamplified solution relative to the rest of the guidance, I stand back and try to understand if its catching on to something the other models are missing or if its an outlier that should be thrown out. The easiest way to figure this is out is to look at the its ensemble mean. Guess what, the ECMWF ensemble mean is pretty much exactly what the deterministic solution is. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is superior to the GFS Ensembles because it contains 50 members and does a more realistic job of depicting the probability PDF of any one particular solution, preventing it from being under dispersive like the GFS ensembles are in most cases. So when there is strong agreement within 72 hours from the ECMWF and the ECMWF ensembles, I place that in the highest regard over all other guidance. Thats what we are seeing currently. The GFS and NAM are completely on the edge of the ECMWF ensemble PDF and therefore should both be considered outliers in this case. Its a little startling to see this must dispersion between the model guidance within 72 hours, but for tricky phasing cases like this, its the norm. While taking a mean might sound like the best course of action, in reality when there is this much spread, you are taking a good forecast and merging with a bad forecast to create a mediocre forecast. I think it would be a better idea to place greater emphasis on the ECMWF solution given the strong support it has by its ensembles. Excellent post and I fully agree! I have been saying all week that the NAM has been awful and the the Euro and its EPS members have been absolutely stellar and incredibly consistent. I see no reason to go against that model within 36 hours of event start time. Nicely worded!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Newest GSP map. Thanks isohume. **runs and hides** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ummmmmmm.....UH OH??? http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kmcn.txt Uh oh? What does that mean? Thanks sir! :+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris, btwn the RGEM and GFS this morning, they drop over an 1" of ZR and GFS is 2" of ZR!!! NAM still clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would like to make a friendly suggestion to the new people before we get closer to this big event. Could everyone edit their profiles and enter the location info (nearest weather station id or your city/state). Then we can see where you are located and not have to ask you. It'll help in real-time tracking when you post. Thanks !!! Locations have been disappearing from posts. It looks like a database issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ummmmmmm.....UH OH??? http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kmcn.txt Jesus. 2.17" ZR. GFS has KCHS ZR for only a short window but .43" during that short window (I'd imagine rain/ZR mix type) with it's reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL!! stop looking at the NAM haha what a garbage model with this storm. The gfs is a scary sight Well you should..it might be the last time you see them for a month.....or ever I know right?! ummmmmmm.....UH OH??? http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kmcn.txt You made me look Here is CAE..... http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kcae.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Showing the raw output from the 12z GFS run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris, btwn the RGEM and GFS this morning, they drop over an 1" of ZR and GFS is 2" of ZR!!! NAM still clueless Chris, I think it's apparent now that the NAM needs to be thrown out. Like I said the fact that it was bringing in great thickness for my back yard means it's seeing how cold the wedge is. Bad news for folks in your area. Hopefully some sleet can mix in but anything over 1 inch of ZR is going to be disastrous. I just don't know how down there you get anything less than .75 to an inch. I also doubt convection robs moisture on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 And the tinkering of totals continues.... Newest GSP map. Thanks isohume. **runs and hides** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris, btwn the RGEM and GFS this morning, they drop over an 1" of ZR and GFS is 2" of ZR!!! NAM still clueless I hope you don't get 2 inches of freezing rain..that is not something I'd wish on anyone. But Yeah, not surprising things have trended colder. Especially since you even have the euro getting freezing temps into alabama. It's going to be especially interesting to watch it unfold If snow is able to fall pretty far south. The rate at which the models drop the temps is really incredible considering it's strictly cold air advection and not due to evaporational cooling. I don't think I agree with hpc about the freezing rain totals around athens over toward my area...unless the nam profile is right (which i doubt it) because the depth of the cold air below the warm nose, combined with the warm nose not being terribly deep (unless you count the nam), and heavy precip rates should tend to favor more sleet than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jesus. 2.17" ZR. GFS has KCHS ZR for only a short window but .43" during that short window (I'd imagine rain/ZR mix type) with it's reading. Ya, I can't fathom that Mike, thing is....GFS keeps getting stronger with it, and showing 31-33 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 And the tinkering of totals continues.... It is weird they now have Asheville down to 5".... Not even the Nam has it that low I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you have the time, the Nomograms are helpful in these situations. Dacula Weather has them on his web site here: http://www.daculaweather.com/nomogram_clt.php Guide GFS for CLT Change variables on NWS Site for other areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope you don't get 2 inches of freezing rain..that is not something I'd wish on anyone. But Yeah, not surprising things have trended colder. Especially since you even have the euro getting freezing temps into alabama. It's going to be especially interesting to watch it unfold If snow is able to fall pretty far south. The rate at which the models drop the temps is really incredible considering it's strictly cold air advection and not due to evaporational cooling. I don't think I agree with hpc about the freezing rain totals around athens over toward my area...unless the nam profile is right (which i doubt it) because the depth of the cold air below the warm nose, combined with the warm nose not being terribly deep (unless you count the nam), and heavy precip rates should tend to favor more sleet than freezing rain. Ya, that would be something else...GFS has expanded the Glaze to .10" even further south across my viewing area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ryan maue tweeted this out, good link for the sim radar for the hrrr. did well for the jan system. the link automatically updates. http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_se.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is weird they now have Asheville down to 5".... Not even the Nam has it that low I think I think some of the decreases have to do with the likelihood of a stronger system introducing more warm air into the mid levels which would allow more instances of -ip and -zr. I could be totally wrong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you have the time, the Nomograms are helpful in these situations. Dacula Weather has them on his web site here: http://www.daculaweather.com/nomogram_clt.php Guide GFS for CLT Change variables on NWS Site for other areas These are great. I used them extensively in my research. Thanks for suggesting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think some of the decreases have to do with the likelihood of a stronger system introducing more warm air into the mid levels which would allow more instances of -ip and -zr. I could be totally wrong as well. I'd be surprised if this was the case. There hasn't been any mention of -ip or -zr on any of the models or the forecasts. I think the more likely scenario is that the map is produced as an average of model runs and the new NAM and GFS skewed amounts down. Is this possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope you don't get 2 inches of freezing rain..that is not something I'd wish on anyone. But Yeah, not surprising things have trended colder. Especially since you even have the euro getting freezing temps into alabama. It's going to be especially interesting to watch it unfold If snow is able to fall pretty far south. The rate at which the models drop the temps is really incredible considering it's strictly cold air advection and not due to evaporational cooling. I don't think I agree with hpc about the freezing rain totals around athens over toward my area...unless the nam profile is right (which i doubt it) because the depth of the cold air below the warm nose, combined with the warm nose not being terribly deep (unless you count the nam), and heavy precip rates should tend to favor more sleet than freezing rain. I don't agree with there area amounts either. They look to far N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z GEFS remains much wetter than the GFS and is nearly identical to the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z GEFS remains much wetter than the GFS and is nearly identical to the 06z. 12z GEFS at 48. Euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd be surprised if this was the case. There hasn't been any mention of -ip or -zr on any of the models or the forecasts. I think the more likely scenario is that the map is produced as an average of model runs and the new NAM and GFS skewed amounts down. Is this possible? For the mountains, I would tend to agree with you. For northern upstate SC (for example) ip and/or zr is a very real possibility, although overdone because of a very stout CAD IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone forsee the dynamics of this storm producing Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WOW, that GEFS panel is beautiful. It's hard to ask for much more than that. Impressive strength for an ensemble mean, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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