CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Something about the thermal fields on the NAM just aren't right...IMO Heck we are busting by 3 degrees already Ha. The funny thing is we're right on track, maybe a degree warmer over here in Columbus. The thing I'm noticing is the break in the rain back west. Not sure if the CAD is able to build in inbetween this rain and the impending rain, but it's something that could allow us to cool off a bit more than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF Plumes are out. Significantly lower snowfall mean for Greensboro. Went from 10 inches down to 7 probably due to mixing. The probability of sleet and freezing rain have increased although the probability for snow remains higher. Many of the members have almost no snow accumulations. Not a good sign, but I'm not sure how reliable it is. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140211&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GSO&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=34.772925208051774&mLON=-80.431324609375&mTYP=roadmap There is a similar issue with the data for KHKY. Take a look at the Ptype-POP tab and compare from 03Z to the most recent 09Z. I think that you are right on with the mixing idea. You can see that the snow probabilities have slightly ticked down and the ice probabilities have ticked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest NAM is even colder at RDU it appears with mostly freezing rain. The wedge looks a bit stronger. I was hoping the upper air was colder and we would see more sleet. So basically the same thing you said earlier but now the surface temps are colder; which is really bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest NAM is even colder at RDU it appears with mostly freezing rain. The wedge looks a bit stronger. So, it's colder but still shows mostly freezing rain? Is it less than before, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not liking the trend in the NAM for here, upper trough not digging as much, so not much if any snow tonight. Hope the GFS and Euro hold serve with more precip and a deeper trough. RPM also has trended poorly, now no more than 4" for anywhere in GA, less than before also in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree. This is just based off the nam.. With that wedge, I have to believe the mixing issues will be tempered, at least to some degree. I would not be surprised if GSP adjusts their totals to look more like they did last night (granted, they only decreased a little this morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With that wedge, I have to believe the mixing issues will be tempered, at least to some degree. I would not be surprised if GSP adjusts their totals to look more like they did last night (granted, they only decreased a little this morning). GSP actually increased their totals for the Upstate area with the 7:28am package. Anderson was at 4.1 inches. Now they are at 7.9 inches: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP actually increased their totals for the Upstate area with the 7:28am package. Anderson was at 4.1 inches. Now they are at 7.9 inches: It is definitely location specific. They decreased Spartanburg by an inch (from 9.3) for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Good call Bevo. Increase for the southern foothills. Forest city went up an inch or so.. It is definitely location specific. They decreased Spartanburg by an inch (from 9.3) for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ha. The funny thing is we're right on track, maybe a degree warmer over here in Columbus. The thing I'm noticing is the break in the rain back west. Not sure if the CAD is able to build in inbetween this rain and the impending rain, but it's something that could allow us to cool off a bit more than modeled. Very true...problem I have with the NAM is its an outlier a bit vs the other models at 2m. This wedge means business, and I CANT for the life of me seeing the 0c 2m line stopping, E and NE of me. So, either its gonna keep showing 33/34 and all rain here or its gonna bust at 30-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not liking the trend in the NAM for here, upper trough not digging as much, so not much if any snow tonight. Hope the GFS and Euro hold serve with more precip and a deeper trough. RPM also has trended poorly, now no more than 4" for anywhere in GA, less than before also in the Carolinas To be honest, the NAM has done poorly so far anyway. Its out on its own on just about every measure it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM shifted everything west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM shifted everything west and north. I didn't pay much attention to the NAM when it was showing 2' for my area, so why should I now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't use these terms much but here it is. The NAM looks catastrophic for parts of metro atlanta. If there isn't sleet mixed in this will be horrible. Based on 850's of model consensus of +1 to +3 C, I'm sticking with my prediction of mainly IP and not mainly ZR for much of Atlanta for 2nd wave, especially city north but even at least some IP down to Tony. Based on numerous old weather maps when there's plentiful precip./wedging, sig. ZR rare if 850's +2.5 C or colder. So, I''m thinking mainly IP and no ZR disaster city north but probably some ZR mixed in at times. I feel pretty confident that you in Marietta will get mainly IP and not ZR for the 2nd wave. Going to be very interesting to watch! Regardless, just in case, I did buy extra battery backup and a car charger for my cell phone yesterday. Better safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Based on 850's of model consensus of +1 to +3 C, I'm sticking with my prediction of mainly IP and not mainly ZR for much of Atlanta for 2nd wave, especially city north but even at least some IP down to Tony. Based on numerous old weather maps when there's plentiful precip./wedging, sig. ZR rare if 850's in +2.5 C or colder. So, I''m thinking mainly IP and no ZR disaster city north but probably some ZR mixed in at times. I feel pretty confident that you in Marietta will get mainly IP and not ZR for the 2nd wave. Going to be very interesting to watch! Regardless, just in case, I did buy extra battery backup and a car charger for my cell phone yesterday. Better safe than sorry. Good to see you Larry! NAM drives down the 0c line at 2m and stops it E and NE of me and for the life of me I can't figure out why. We have a very healthy dose of NE winds at 2m, our 850's are progged at like 4-5c (5 at most)....All other models are colder for sure. RGEM lays the hammer down around here big time.. Any reason why it would just stop that progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to FFC, freezing rain will NOT be a huge problem in West GA. Less than a quarter inch of ice per FFC. Looks like most of it is east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM shifted everything west and north. Brick try the below link. I would guess what you are showing is actual snow (no ice) where the one below shows everything grouped together. Notice the one I provided actually shifts things eastward depicting the colder surface temps. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I didn't pay much attention to the NAM when it was showing 2' for my area, so why should I now? Best response I've seen in this thread since Saturday regarding the NAM! Based on looping water vapor and looking at the initialization of the NAM 500mb vorticity fields, it looks off to me. Southern vort is too far northeast, and our main player is still in the Canadian Provinces - an area where the NAM has notoriously done poor in. As with most runs of the NAM this winter, I think it can be safely disregarded. The 6Z GFS had a much better handle on the positions of the vorticity maximums this morning. So its 12Z run should be very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Good to see you Larry! NAM drives down the 0c line at 2m and stops it E and NE of me and for the life of me I can't figure out why. We have a very healthy dose of NE winds at 2m, our 850's are progged at like 4-5c (5 at most)....All other models are colder for sure. RGEM lays the hammer down around here big time.. Any reason why it would just stop that progression? The only thing I can come up with: it is the unreliable and inconsistent NAM lol. How are you running temperaturewise vs. recent NAM runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The low is tracking off shore, there's very well established deep CAD sig... it's not switching over to sleet all the way back into Hickory. Climo for this track says the sleet stays S and E of 85. Euro looks perfect wrt to temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CAE bufkit from the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The only thing I can come up with: it is the unreliable and inconsistent NAM lol. How are you running temperaturewise vs. recent NAM runs? LOL the first half of that is right for sure!! yes, I compare them from the previous runs. 6z run raw output did have us at 32 and heavy rain in the ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM is looking much deeper than the NAM, which probably means this run can be tossed. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM deep and taking Euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM is looking much deeper than the NAM, which probably means this run can be tossed. Good. Hows it looking thermally? RGEM has been constantly destroying my area and just east with ZR. You get it on there main site earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Something I noticed on the NAM was it was driving that 540 line south of where it had it. To me that is saying the NAM is seeing now how cold the air is aloft. It's likely off on the 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hows it looking thermally? RGEM has been constantly destroying my area and just east with ZR. You get it on there main site earlier? Not all of it is in yet, just the 500mb and surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The low is tracking off shore, there's very well established deep CAD sig... it's not switching over to sleet all the way back into Hickory. Climo for this track says the sleet stays S and E of 85. Euro looks perfect wrt to temp profiles. KCLT fought off the warm nose. not sure why it's not showing more snow. it's at least an 10" snowfall as depicted by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM is a 995 low around the Outer Banks....Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not all of it is in yet, just the 500mb and surface Sounds good...Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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