burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert (WxSouth) also sounded very excited with what the RPM was showing. Said the high was showing as a 1038 to setup the wedge. That could help with folks who could get mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here comes the always accurate NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HR 18 the QPF field looks about the same, but its a little quicker than the 6z run looks colder at 2m in GA vs 6z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On a related note, Joe Bastardi was tweeting about the reports from Illinois that were -20F from overnight. I do believe this is our cold airmass that will bring in our CAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert (WxSouth) also sounded very excited with what the RPM was showing. Said the high was showing as a 1038 to setup the wedge. That could help with folks who could get mixing issues. I agree... the presence of a strong CAD signature will help more than just at the surface while the low moves across the SE. Even during solid Miller A events with weak CAD or nearly none at all the precip is still primarily snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert (WxSouth) also sounded very excited with what the RPM was showing. Said the high was showing as a 1038 to setup the wedge. That could help with folks who could get mixing issues. It looked like he thought most of the ice would stay south into SC and southeast NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 850's coming in colder @24 on the 12z compared to the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 by h24 just ever so slightly wetter but it looks like there is a finger on heaver precip moving from sw GA north eastward towards Macon.....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Speaking of which, you can really see the CAD sig on the NAM even in the 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/md0082.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NE SC AND SE NC CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 111321Z - 111915Z SUMMARY...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET...THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY. DISCUSSION...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IN SE NC AND NE SC...AS SFC TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL IN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL COLD-AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 30-33 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION...AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVERRIDES COLDER/DRIER LOW LEVELS. THIS TREND WAS EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AT KEYF WHERE MODERATE RAIN /33 DEGREES F/ AND AT KMRH WHERE MODERATE FREEZING RAIN /32 DEGREES F/ WAS REPORTED. FREEZING RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.05 IN PER 3 HRS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM at 21 Speaking of which, you can really see the CAD sig on the NAM even in the 850 temps. 2M temp at 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is definitely digging more at 30hr vs 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't use these terms much but here it is. The NAM looks catastrophic for parts of metro atlanta. If there isn't sleet mixed in this will be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My updated map. Out prior to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 850's coming in colder @24 on the 12z compared to the 6z NAM. yep right on queue, the NAM sticking with the trend of warming 850s during the overnight runs only to cool them back off on the 12 and 18z. hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree... the presence of a strong CAD signature will help more than just at the surface while the low moves across the SE. Even during solid Miller A events with weak CAD or nearly none at all the precip is still primarily snow. That may help set the slp track further east. A slp will not run into a wedge but around it. So wherever the wedge boundary setups later today I would expect the inverted trough axis to setup and be the eventual track of the big lp tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't use these terms much but here it is. The NAM looks catastrophic for parts of metro atlanta. If there isn't sleet mixed in this will be horrible. It's been a source of huge debate at work about half of us think ATL will be mostly sleet after 18z Wednesday while the other half think it's mostly freezing rain til Thursday AM...debates include everything but cold layer depth to droplet size to how cold the layer is...interestingly enough unless I was reading it wrong I sensed in the FFC AFD this AM they think southern ATL will change back to rain tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 850 and 2m temps look great from hr 21 on.. yep right on queue, the NAM sticking with the trend of warming 850s during the overnight runs only to cool them back off on the 12 and 18z. hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert (WxSouth) also sounded very excited with what the RPM was showing. Said the high was showing as a 1038 to setup the wedge. That could help with folks who could get mixing issues. I KNEW I was going to wake up and GSP would cut my totals, and call for mixing issues. I knew it. From the morning runs though I'm happy to see we're still in the game. Really good to see the EURO cool down for CLT and give us mostly snow. Honestly with this setup and the way the storm looks to play out, I'd be surprised if this wasn't mostly snow. It's just a classic 85 special, old school. I still can't believe we got this set up this year. Like to see the track trend a tick east, phase a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It looked like he thought most of the ice would stay south into SC and southeast NC. If true, that's great news for those of us here in Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm juuust below freezing throughout the column at 33. Yeah, I-85 special per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 for kflo. good heavens. 3" of frz rain? even if accrual is half of that it would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Running in line with CAE, we've already got sleet/snow mixture falling in part of the area. Ground temp is getting near freezing already. for kflo. good heavens. 3" of frz rain? even if accrual is half of that it would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With that wedge, I have to believe the mixing issues will be tempered, at least to some degree. I would not be surprised if GSP adjusts their totals to look more like they did last night (granted, they only decreased a little this morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Something about the thermal fields on the NAM just aren't right...IMO Heck we are busting by 3 degrees already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's been a source of huge debate at work about half of us think ATL will be mostly sleet after 18z Wednesday while the other half think it's mostly freezing rain til Thursday AM...debates include everything but cold layer depth to droplet size to how cold the layer is...interestingly enough unless I was reading it wrong I sensed in the FFC AFD this AM they think southern ATL will change back to rain tomorrow afternoon. In the AFD, I took it to mean that they thought the southern part of their CWA by I-16 (so Macon SE towards Savannah) would changeover earlier, not the southern part of the Metro proper. That would seem to make sense given the CAD, right? I may have been reading it wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest NAM is even colder at RDU it appears with mostly freezing rain. The wedge looks a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm juuust below freezing throughout the column at 33. Yeah, I-85 special per the NAM. Hopefully that's the trend today. 0Z EURO, 12Z NAM, GFS? I just don't remember classic Miller A's having mixing issues in the Charlotte metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF Plumes are out. Significantly lower snowfall mean for Greensboro. Went from 10 inches down to 7 probably due to mixing. The probability of sleet and freezing rain have increased although the probability for snow remains higher. Many of the members have almost no snow accumulations. Not a good sign, but I'm not sure how reliable it is. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140211&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GSO&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=34.772925208051774&mLON=-80.431324609375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From the WPC: PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 12Z EC MEAN OR A BLEND OF 00Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF POSITIONCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS DIFFERENT EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE...REGARDING ANRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLYTHIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH A SLOWER/NORTHWARDDISPLACED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BY WED MORNING OVER THE CNTRL HIGHPLAINS...A FEATURE WHICH HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY IN THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH INTHE NAM BY EARLY THU OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TODAYTHAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED...BUT THEY HAVE MADE AWHOLESALE SHIFT SLOWER AND WEST. THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE WESTSIDE OF THE LATEST LOW PLOT ENVELOPE...INITIALIZED12Z/10...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS/CMC MEMBERS JUST EAST OF THE ECMWFMEMBER CLUSTER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS PRECLUDES USE OFTHE 00Z CMC WHICH CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS.THE 00Z UKMET IS LIKELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH HOW FARSOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENDS UP WEST OFITS 12Z RUN WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST. THE00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW TRACK EAST SLIGHTLY FROM ITS 12ZRUN...20-40 MILES...ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT IS NEARLYIDENTICAL TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 00ZECMWF IS STILL A BIT WEST OF THE 12Z EC MEAN NEAR NEW ENGLAND.GIVEN THESE ADJUSTMENTS...STILL FEEL THE 00Z GFS IS A TAD TOO FAREAST...AND TOO WEAK...PERHAPS RELATED TO POSSIBLE CONVECTIVEFEEDBACK ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THEPREVIOUS PREFERENCE CONTINUES...BUT TO INCLUDE THE LATEST 00ZMODEL SUITE...THE POSITION OF THE BLENDED 00Z ECMWF/GFS APPEARSMOST USABLE...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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