jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 06z NAM looks noticeably further north and perhaps somewhat stronger. Edit: Also looks warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Beautiful phase on the 42 image really digging that energy down into the GOM comparing it to the 48 hour image wall of precip about to flood northern NC southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Freekin bam at 45 Nam much further west with the precip this run is gonna be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Freekin bam at 45 Nam much further west with the precip this run is gonna be sick. Yea, it looks like a nice run for you and I. It looks like everything is starting to cave to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is a crush job for WNC, CLT, and GSO may mix for a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is a crush job for WNC, CLT, and GSO may mix for a short period. It looked warmer in general to me, like CLT might get considerable sleet. But maybe I'm seeing things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It looked warmer in general to me, like CLT might get considerable sleet. But maybe I'm seeing things? AVL should be all snow, HKY is probably close to mixing for a very short period, but CLT may get a good bit of IP this run. Heights crash once storm phases so the SN/IP line will probably not be determined until the event is underway, many key things that models could miss. Looks good for now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It looked warmer in general to me, like CLT might get considerable sleet. But maybe I'm seeing things? I would venture to say with a low bombing off the coast like that its gonna funnel in some colder air to compensate im sure a met can break that down more for you or even burger or someone of that nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would venture to say with a low bombing off the coast like that its gonna funnel in some colder air to compensate im sure a met can break that down more for you or even burger or someone of that nature. With an 850 low that takes the track it does as well as the phasing at h5 which causes the trough to go negative, heights will crash on the backside and it will be all snow, more like the euro. Even CLT and GSO are easily all snow on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here you go, looks like Athens continues to show up big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here you go, looks like Athens continues to show up big I know its a clown map but goes to show for sure that NAM def beefed up accumulations on the western side of the storm. Good trends to start the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know its a clown map but goes to show for sure that NAM def beefed up accumulations on the western side of the storm. Good trends to start the day. Yea, but I don't see why it wouldn't be fairly accurate. Using a 10:1 ratio or so those snowfall totals look about right based on the QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone that's still up have access to the Euro ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Found this map in the Mid-Atlantic forum. Needless to say, this thing has plenty of warm water to work with over the gulf stream, moisture will be abundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Found the euro snowfall accumulation on the Mid Atlantic forum. According to the person who posted it, it is adjusted to account for fzrn, ip, and low ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WOW....I actually think I remember that event. I think its telling that ALL the models are showing that wedge getting into E AL...ARW pushes it to SW GA!! lol Chris, I just saw a 4 km WRF radar simulation for 9 a.m. Wednesday morning that is alarming. It shows the 32 degree surface isotherm west of Gadsden and Anniston to near Columbus.....as far south in GA as Americus, Sylvester, and Statesboro.....with a tremendous area of freezing rain north of it too north of Atlanta, and a lot more precip in Alabama and Mississippi too come. Ryan Maue posted it on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris, I just saw a 4 km WRF radar simulation for 9 a.m. Wednesday morning that is alarming. It shows the 32 degree surface isotherm west of Gadsden and Anniston to near Columbus.....as far south in GA as Americus, Sylvester, and Statesboro.....with a tremendous area of freezing rain north of it too north of Atlanta, and a lot more precip in Alabama and Mississippi too come. Ryan Maue posted it on Twitter. Ya, I wasn't sure if anyone really used those, but they both show what I thinik its certainlly possible, and main models are trending that way, is to see some really nasty ZR accum pushing into mid GA and maybe west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Also looking at the NAM this morning I noticed that the precipitation that it had for right know is much further south than what is going on. Man could still be under doing totals with qpf. Just something I noticed about this morning's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The rgem is a thing of beauty. Still snowing at hour 48 and ten inch totals already in the north Georgia mtns nw sc and southwest nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If these numbers hold true and CAE gets over an inch of ice I have a feeling the seven 18-year-old Bradford Pear trees I have won't fair too well. It is amazing to see how much of SC could be affected by an appreciable amount of ZR. Really hope that temp line pushes south tomorrow and we lean more towards snow or sleet instead. Well; I know my area didn't get treated. Yet. I'm going over previous modeling and some areas are falling quicker than forecast. One good sign is the real event is tomorrow not today. So I'm probably just starting to get paranoid because of the ice storm shown. The temps might be around 1 or 2 degrees off right now for my area from some modeling from 00z.. but nothing crazy. and to buckeye as well: all things aside i feel for yall in the moster ice zone. i have been in a couple of biggies, but the most was approaching an inch or so. it was an experience and interesting, but does get the trees. dec 05 took out all the bradford pears in this neighborhood - i saw one peel apart like a banana as it split down the center. as lookout alluded to the sound is what got me, it sounds like gunshots going off as the trees and large limbs snap. clean up was a mess and power was out 3 or 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Use this map, turn on station markers, and turn on radar. I like watching the temps at the same time. Also, the map auto-refreshes so you can just let it sit there. http://www.daculaweather.com/current/misc/google-maps-radar/4_google_radar.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great disco overnight folks... I see wsw are going up and the euro held it course.Should be a fun day at work for everyone as you try to track:) GSP has cut into the totals around: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The rgem is a thing of beauty. Still snowing at hour 48 and ten inch totals already in the north Georgia mtns nw sc and southwest nc. It literally only looks good for AVL west. No thanks. Edit: Look at maps on the AmWx models looks like for Shelby to CLT it's about 6-8 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet. Anyone west of GSO gets around 4 inches of snow and has major mixing issues according to the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is the 6z GFS snow map(eastern edge would be more sleet). Looks good for the RDU area. Also looks like the 30 degree temp(not dew point) line stays just east of Raleigh. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/11/06/GFS_3_2014021106_F60_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great disco overnight folks... I see wsw are going up and the euro held it course. Should be a fun day at work for everyone as you try to track:) GSP has cut into the totals around: Wonder if they are thinking mixing issues are going here. Certainly a few models are pointing to that especially for my backyard. This is going to be a long day tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It literally only looks good for AVL west. No thanks. Edit: Look at maps on the AmWx models looks like for Shelby to CLT it's about 6-8 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet. Anyone west of GSO gets around 4 inches of snow and has major mixing issues according to the RGEM. if it went out farther im sure you would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Found the euro snowfall accumulation on the Mid Atlantic forum. According to the person who posted it, it is adjusted to account for fzrn, ip, and low ratios. If this is adjusted for sleet and freezing rain, the euro is screaming a repeat of the January 1996 storm for at least the RDU area (in terms of precip type and amounts). **I was living in Wake Forest and experienced 14 hours of heavy sleet with a little snow at the end. Ended up with over 6" of sleet on the ground. To this day I put that storm as my favorite, even over the Carolina Crusher. Bring it on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can anyone comment on the euro ensemble mean? How does the track compare to the operational which ticked east last night? I'm noticing that the higher resolution (rgem, nam4k, etc...) models are coming in with a more of a mixing issue in areas where the lower resolution models are showing snow. Am I correct in assuming that the higher resolution would make them better in picking up on warm layers in the column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6z NAM is a terrible freezing rain storm for RDU, COBB says 1.38 of QPF is freezing rain. Unfortunately, the 6z GFS also looks to have trended more freezing rainish on the RDU soundings. Only saving grace is that the model show RDU around 32 or so during the height which may temper some of the ice accrual, but trees are going to get it bad for sure. Road and surface will likely depend on how much snow/sleet we get at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I see that the 6z NAM was even colder...Sits me at 32 now with heavy rain..lol I also see that the 6z GFS is a bit colder at 2m as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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