deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 To show you how strong this wedge is..at the most western extent, the euro has freezing temps now into alabama....WEST of columbus by hour 42. It doesn't stay there long but to have freezing temps make it that far southwest is nuts. So I'd imagine the freezing line is going to get pretty damn far south in ga/sc. Thats a great point Chris...If its that stout and pushing WEST of CSG then it shouldn't have any problem getting through MCN and into CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah. I don't think most of us have seen anything of this level in our lifetimes. I know I sure as hell haven't. This possibility is as worst as it comes. I just hope everyone in this state realizes the danger this storm poses and is ready. Literally speaking right now, I feel sunken knowing just potentially how bad this is going to be, almost as sunken when we knew Katrina was going to devastate LA/MS. What worries me is the cities involved. Not enough chainsaws. Lots of chain saws in the country. I've got 4. I learned my lesson, lol. There will be folks left up in cul de sacs that no one will get to for days and days. Old people, that no one can get too until the power lines are turned off. People in apts with no heat, and no stores with anything in them for miles. There will be lines down on every street, everywhere, and trees on top of that. No amount of crews could help Atl if 73 hit again. It's just too much. It's self sufficiency that people will need, and common sense. Well, and luck. Loads and loads of luck If this hits I hope it will be a teaching tool to save lives next time. Folks in Atl just forgot about 73. And I'm not so sure it can happen again like that . But two inches would do a lot of damage also, and in Augusta it could get nearly as bad as Atl, though I don't know the population now. Atl had less than a mil back then, over the whole area, though the storm went back into Ala, where I think they had some even greater accumulations. I expect Aug. is maybe the same size, or a bit smaller, and that will help. A lot of Atl now, was country back then. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Henry Rothenburg from WACH just tweeted out 1 inch is a safe bet. No joking around CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can you post the latest clown maps? Hopefully someone can post the clown map here. Thats a great point Chris...If its that stout and pushing WEST of CSG then it shouldn't have any problem getting through MCN and into CHS EURO has it going below FRZ in KCHS now showing minor accumulations there and upping the ante in the inland coastal counties. getting closer to what the rest of the consensus is showing. all in all, I think the EURO/NAM are the warmest at the SFC here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fresh snowcover enhancement to enhance the wedge downstream into Central GA and points west into E AL for that wedge to penetrate. Locally, the snow clown maps has 3.3" snow in Dorchester County (IMBY) and 0.8" snow for KCHS (we all know that's all ice). literally translated, about maybe .1" at KCHS, and about 1/3" ice in Lower Dorchester County. previous run had nothing for KCHS and 0.5" snow depiction IMBY. big stepped increase. and basically for the Midlands, pretty much holds serve similar to the CMC and RGEM ya, my 12z euro clown map on the snow depth was like 0.3" now its showing 2.5" so a HUGE increase for sure. I actually think there is a little more wiggle room to come down with 2m temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully someone can post the clown map here. EURO has it going below FRZ in KCHS now showing minor accumulations there and upping the ante in the inland coastal counties. getting closer to what the rest of the consensus is showing. all in all, I think the EURO/NAM are the warmest at the SFC here. We have to be careful on the amount of posting we make of the precip maps from Euro etc. Generally it's frowned upon; and since I have posted a set of total precip; I'd like someone else to post the scary clown maps if they want/are allowed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully someone can post the clown map here. EURO has it going below FRZ in KCHS now showing minor accumulations there and upping the ante in the inland coastal counties. getting closer to what the rest of the consensus is showing. all in all, I think the EURO/NAM are the warmest at the SFC here. Ya the NAM is the warmest here and the CMC/RGEM/GFS are coldest, but EURO took a huge step that way toward them tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ya the NAM is the warmest here and the CMC/RGEM/GFS are coldest, but EURO took a huge step that way toward them tonight The nam already looks a few degree too warm on verification of current temps if I had to guess I think ATL is FZRA by 00-03z at the latest not 12z as the nam would suggest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has to be posted for many in SC to realize that the GGEM isn't off it's rocker. Most of this precip (probably 1.8-2) inches of it has a chance to be ZR over SC. The northern Midlands might squeak a lot of sleet out.. but my God at both these maps of the 00z Euro and 00z GGEM: Please remove if its dicey having these images here. All I've got to say, is that darker patch over me better be sleet. I've had my fill of zr. It's someone else's turn to face the z demon. 2.6 of precip is too much to freeze, except for zr. I've never been lucky enough to get 2.6 as sleet, or snow. Well, wait a minute..maybe 79 was that much liquid, lol. Halleluiah, I'm saved...saved I say, lol, it'll be sleet. Larry, don't you dare tell me 79, and 88 were far less qpf T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The nam already looks a few degree too warm on verification of current temps if I had to guess I think ATL is FZRA by 00-03z at the latest not 12z as the nam would suggest I would agree, and its a growing consensus that for me (MCN) its moving toward a 12z turn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone use the NMM or ARW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ya, my 12z euro clown map on the snow depth was like 0.3" now its showing 2.5" so a HUGE increase for sure. I actually think there is a little more wiggle room to come down with 2m temps as well. already seeing temps down in the mid=upper 30's already in the midlands and upstate of SC. there's definitely a little more room. the last classic cold air damming we saw that got into E AL was trending colder all the way to the event and still ended up being slightly colder than progged by a 1-2 degree margin and I think that was the 2004 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Per the UGA mesonet, it's already down to 33 degrees at the Paulding County HS location, and 36 here.....and my NAM projected low tonight was 38. Am getting concerned we could have driving problems north of I-20 west and north of Atlanta by morning, and am not sure we'll see much if any warming during the day from Atlanta and Athens northward. UGA mesonet http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 James, did you check winds? I'm fairly sure CLT is very very very close to meeting official blizzard criteria in Charlotte which I am fairly sure hasn't happened in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 already seeing temps down in the mid=upper 30's already in the midlands and upstate of SC. there's definitely a little more room. the last classic cold air damming we saw that got into E AL was trending colder all the way to the event and still ended up being slightly colder than progged by a 1-2 degree margin and I think that was the 2004 event. WOW....I actually think I remember that event. I think its telling that ALL the models are showing that wedge getting into E AL...ARW pushes it to SW GA!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One final thought before I wrap and get some rest. One potential saver here is that at times the ZR rates may be insanely high which might serve two purposes. It doesn't accrete efficiently and very heavy rates could actually drag some of the warm nose layer down (efficient latent heat release) (despite the continual damming feed), but with that much QPF depicted, don't really think it's going to make much difference in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 James, did you check winds? I'm fairly sure CLT is very very very close to meeting official blizzard criteria in Charlotte which I am fairly sure hasn't happened in my lifetime.Not James , but I've seen a few people post winds would be between 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 over a large area of the Carolina's , definitely from CAE to CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 James, did you check winds? I'm fairly sure CLT is very very very close to meeting official blizzard criteria in Charlotte which I am fairly sure hasn't happened in my lifetime. No, I hadn't until you mentioned it. Looks like it's showing close to 50 MPH gusts from CLT up towards GSO at hr 54. Wow. Good bye, electrical lines, if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the euro verifies, you're probably talking about having to shut down the Charlotte and Greensboro airports. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the euro verifies, you're probably talking about having to shut down the Charlotte and Greensboro airports. What a mess. If the Euro does verify airports up and down the eastern seaboard could be shut down. This storm could end up having a major economic impact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One final thought before I wrap and get some rest. One potential saver here is that at times the ZR rates may be insanely high which might serve two purposes. It doesn't accrete efficiently and very heavy rates could actually drag some of the warm nose layer down (efficient latent heat release) (despite the continual damming feed), but with that much QPF depicted, don't really think it's going to make much difference in this case. Eventually; I think the 2ms are going to get to the point of latent heat not mattering at all at this part of the state. If we were going to be more marginal; I'd be much happier. I saw some 26 and 27 2m temps trying to rear their ugly heads tonight. That's probably closer to reality. Man this server is a beast even though it has it high traffic parts. 100gigabit? cost per month? wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking at the rainfall currently happening in my yard that wasn't supposed to start until after 4am; and the temps already dropping into the 30s.. with a forecast low of 36.. I think something is off. Man, UGH. I hope it stays above freezing as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Somethings off? You mean the pre treatment just sliding off the roads as we speak? Looking at the rainfall currently happening in my yard that wasn't supposed to start until after 4am; and the temps already dropping into the 30s.. with a forecast low of 36.. I think something is off. Man, UGH. I hope it stays above freezing as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Somethings off? You mean the pre treatment just sliding off the roads as we speak? Well; I know my area didn't get treated. Yet. I'm going over previous modeling and some areas are falling quicker than forecast. One good sign is the real event is tomorrow not today. So I'm probably just starting to get paranoid because of the ice storm shown. The temps might be around 1 or 2 degrees off right now for my area from some modeling from 00z.. but nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 look at The State, according to forecasters say tomorrow is going to be colder and wetter than planned. Well; I know my area didn't get treated. Yet. I'm going over previous modeling and some areas are falling quicker than forecast. One good sign is the real event is tomorrow not today. So I'm probably just starting to get paranoid because of the ice storm shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 03z SREF looks very similar to the 21z. Edit: Seems to hold precipitation longer than the 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys may have saw, but the WPC model disco from an hour or so ago says that they are pretty much going with a blend of the 00z GFS/00Z Euro for track and the 00z Euro for strength, They also like the 12z UKIE and 12z Euro Ens. Said the Canadian was too fast, the NAM got the BC shortwave in the wrong position so it's entire run ended up too weak, and that the 00z UKIE was a bit too deep. They also said the GFS was slightly too far east and too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DT has a new call map. Has sleet in all of the upstate and CLT metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 03z SREF looks very similar to the 21z. Edit: Seems to hold precipitation longer than the 21z. The 03z SREF actually looks a little wetter to me. Has the 1" contour extended more westward and has a 2" contour blip in there now as it heads up the coast. The EURO I believe may have scored the coup as of right now but then again plenty of model runs to go with the new sampling of the BC Shortwave completely ingested into the models at 12Z. Good trend on the SREF for sure. 6Z NAM should be better than 0Z if I had to take a gander. Edit: 2" contour runs thru central GA and then reemerges off the coast as the LP takes over from there so all in all it still indeed throw that 1" contour back more westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 03z SREF actually looks a little wetter to me. Has the 1" contour extended more westward and has a 2" contour blip in there now as it heads up the coast. The EURO I believe may have scored the coup as of right now but then again plenty of model runs to go with the new sampling of the BC Shortwave completely ingested into the models at 12Z. Good trend on the SREF for sure. 6Z NAM should be better than 0Z if I had to take a gander. Edit: 2" contour runs thru central GA and then reemerges off the coast as the LP takes over from there so all in all it still indeed throw that 1" contour back more westward. Yes, you're right, I spoke too soon. Not sure about other areas, but for Asheville the SREF mean was up from around 7 inches to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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