Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 She will declare in between 10-2 tomorrow. I can assure you. Nikki Haley declared a state of emergency for SC for the last event and it really didn't need it. Not quite sure if she has yet for now... we definitely need the National Guard on standby for SC. Thankfully many of us are smarter and hit the grocery stores early and all that. I stocked up a ton on kerosene. I really feel for the elderly and sick. I hope they are forced into shelters if they can't take care of themselves. Mike, if this happens (as extreme as some models say) for some of SC; this will literally kill people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow. How consistent the euro has been. Hope it wins. It's stayed with heavy snow for a while. Pull it in euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm going to be very unsmart.. and as long as I don't have a powerline on the ground close to me; I'm going to video the views and sounds of some of the ice breaking everything down. If I can do it halfway safely. Huge pecan tree right over my house. It's scary when everything starts breaking, especially if there are any trees capable of hitting your house. You sit there and you hear what sounds like cannond going off and they get louder and more frequent...and you are sitting there wondering if the freezing rain will ever stop at that point. But that is with modest ice accumulations..whats being shown here is far worse than that. I'd be scared sh*tless if I had a house down there with any trees around. The model guidance depictions are absolutely mind-boggling and the consensus is undeniable. the axis of that ZR will cause devastation potentially as bad as Hurricane Hugo or even worse. Literally, this is a real state of emergency in the making. Indeed. The euro is even colder at the surface too. Looks like the freezing line is down to the coast. 20s over much of north and central ga. (colder than the last run by a good margin in terms of area) some qpf totals please! good sir! Overall totals are about the same as the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's hard to imagine that happening down here. That '98 storm brought down the big steel transmission towers. That's insane! Oh my lord. Ughhh....my heart goes out to whoever gets hit by that super ice axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's actually pretty minor, but it's a lot colder. GSO gets 14.1", per the clown, and that's all-snow.... CLT about 13"... The foothills are 10-12" and the mountains are 12"+. If you compare the total precip vs 12z you can see the deform band shifted about 50-75 miles east right over your house! Enjoy! Western NC still over 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nikki Haley declared a state of emergency for SC for the last event and it really didn't need it. Not quite sure if she has yet for now... we definitely need the National Guard on standby for SC. Thankfully many of us are smarter and hit the grocery stores early and all that. I stocked up a ton on kerosene. I really feel for the elderly and sick. I hope they are forced into shelters if they can't take care of themselves. Mike, if this happens (as extreme as some models say) for some of SC; this will literally kill people. Yeah. I don't think most of us have seen anything of this level in our lifetimes. I know I sure as hell haven't. This possibility is as worst as it comes. I just hope everyone in this state realizes the danger this storm poses and is ready. Literally speaking right now, I feel sunken knowing just potentially how bad this is going to be, almost as sunken when we knew Katrina was going to devastate LA/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I really want to know what the euro says for GSP All-snow. 1.4" QPF. SuperJames how does RDU look on this? It's tough to say. It looks like you get 0.6" QPF by hr 48, at which 850s are 0C. Assuming there's no sneaky warm layer, you might be looking at 4-5" of snow before the changeover. 850s quickly rise to 6C by hr 54 and crash afterwards. However, Raleigh actually is raining in the mid-30s at hr 54... It probably flips back over towards the end. There's a pretty crazy gradient in temperature at 850 mb. RDU and GSO are about 8C off from one another for much of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's scary when everything starts breaking, especially if there are any trees capable of hitting your house. You sit there and you hear what sounds like cannond going off and they get louder and more frequent...and you are sitting there wondering if the freezing rain will ever stop at that point. But that is with modest ice accumulations..whats being shown here is far worse than that. I'd be scared sh*tless if I had a house down there with any trees around. Indeed. The euro is even colder at the surface too. Looks like the freezing line is down to the coast. 20s over much of north and central ga. (colder than the last run by a good margin in terms of area) Overall totals are about the same as the prior run. Not surprised you said that, which continues to put the Lowcountry of SC into a dangerous situation as well. the consensus tonight basically has inland coastal counties getting over .25" of ice and much more, with still more time for a little colder. I'm beginning to lose words to describe the devastation that much ice will bring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has to be posted for many in SC to realize that the GGEM isn't off it's rocker. Most of this precip (probably 1.8-2) inches of it has a chance to be ZR over SC. The northern Midlands might squeak a lot of sleet out.. but my God at both these maps of the 00z Euro and 00z GGEM: Please remove if its dicey having these images here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymcilwoods Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah. I don't think most of us have seen anything of this level in our lifetimes. I know I sure as hell haven't. This possibility is as worst as it comes. I just hope everyone in this state realizes the danger this storm poses and is ready. Literally speaking right now, I feel sunken knowing just potentially how bad this is going to be, almost as sunken when we knew Katrina was going to devastate LA/MS. I was in the middle of this one https://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/dec2002ice.html and was without power for a week, a week that didn't see the temps leave the 30's if I recall correctly. The sounds of pine trees exploding all night were chilling, but not as chilling as actually seeing these giants snap. I urge all of you that know somebody that might get significant icing that's being predicted to get on their case about being ready for days and days without power. Just as importantly, make sure they understand just what the effect of the ice will be on their trees. Finally, I made the mistake of venturing out in the morning after the precipitation had left the area and exploring. Little did I realize that these giant pines were still coming down as I found myself looking at a downed tree in the exact spot I had been standing a few minutes before I walked around the other side of the house. That was all with 1" of freezing rain. Good luck to everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 850 low on the Euro passes from Rockingham to Durham to Richmond. Wow. Almost identical to the NAM earlier, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People down here in the Lowcountry are expecting a cold rain and some ice inland. If that ice moves closer to the coast and causes everything to shut down here like it did last time, it will be pure mayhem. Even we on James Island had near 1/4" of ice last storm. Most of the area had about that number. Gotta believe the local guys in the morning will be pumping this up. This could be a way worse impact than any winter storm we've had here in SC in a LONG time. Almost the entire state (except for Beaufort/Jasper) in severe winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RPM back up to close to 8" of snow/sleet for the northern part of the ATL Metro (very tight gradient), 10-12 over most of NE GA to most of Upstate SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's scary when everything starts breaking, especially if there are any trees capable of hitting your house. You sit there and you hear what sounds like cannond going off and they get louder and more frequent...and you are sitting there wondering if the freezing rain will ever stop at that point. Totally agree. Right after I moved into my present house, in a neighborhood with a lot of trees and woods, we had a major ice storm. It sounded like there was a gun battle outside. I was lucky and only one limb hit my house and ripped a gutter loose. It was a pretty intense experience and that was with .5 to .75" of ice. I have some photos of it somewhere. Found one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 850 low on the Euro passes from Rockingham to Raleigh to Richmond. Wow. Almost identical to the NAM earlier, IIRC. Where does it run prior to Rockingham? NC/SC border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DC gets 2.5"ish QPF. I was stationed in DC back during the December 2009, Feb 5-6th & Feb 9-10 '10 blizzards. I believe we had about 40 inches dumped on my house in Maryland in those 5 days in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where does it run prior to Rockingham? NC/SC border? It runs from south of Birmingham to south of Atlanta to about halfway between CAE and CLT. Actually, it looks like it passes more near Durham than Raleigh, at second glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not surprised you said that, which continues to put the Lowcountry of SC into a dangerous situation as well. the consensus tonight basically has inland coastal counties getting over .25" of ice and much more, with still more time for a little colder. I'm beginning to lose words to describe the devastation that much ice will bring To show you how strong this wedge is..at the most western extent, the euro has freezing temps now into alabama....WEST of columbus by hour 42. It doesn't stay there long but to have freezing temps make it that far southwest is nuts. So I'd imagine the freezing line is going to get pretty damn far south in ga/sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CHS would get crushed on this run with ice if this is correct ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's scary when everything starts breaking, especially if there are any trees capable of hitting your house. You sit there and you hear what sounds like cannond going off and they get louder and more frequent...and you are sitting there wondering if the freezing rain will ever stop at that point. But that is with modest ice accumulations..whats being shown here is far worse than that. I'd be scared sh*tless if I had a house down there with any trees around. Indeed. The euro is even colder at the surface too. Looks like the freezing line is down to the coast. 20s over much of north and central ga. (colder than the last run by a good margin in terms of area) Overall totals are about the same as the prior run. Good lord is it ever colder by a good bit this run at 2m...EURO continues the trend of colder at 2m and at 850. I fully expect winter storm warnings in am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, Cape Hatteras is near 70 degrees at the surface with 850s around 10C during the heart of the storm on the 00z Euro. The warm nose means business... That's a huge temperature contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spurscar Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If these numbers hold true and CAE gets over an inch of ice I have a feeling the seven 18-year-old Bradford Pear trees I have won't fair too well. It is amazing to see how much of SC could be affected by an appreciable amount of ZR. Really hope that temp line pushes south tomorrow and we lean more towards snow or sleet instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is how I see it -- Folks, thank you for all the input and information you've given me. If you don't hear from me after tomorrow, I'll talk to you sometime next week. SC has to learn investing in winter preparedness is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1.4" for GSO, 1.2" out your way, 1.3" for CLT, 1.2" for HKY... DC gets 2.5"ish QPF. It actually seems to line up quite well with the UKMET, at first glance. EDIT: 1.2" for Bristol, TN, too. Basically, if you're west of a line from maybe Burlington or Gibsonville down towards Charlotte, you've got 1"+ QPF of all-snow. EDIT #2: Check that. Burlington flips to sleet for a short period of time. Yup....tossing the NCDOT that double barrel bird.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If these numbers hold true and CAE gets over an inch of ice I have a feeling the seven 18-year-old Bradford Pear trees I have won't fair too well. It is amazing to see how much of SC could be affected by an appreciable amount of ZR. Really hope that temp line pushes south tomorrow and we lean more towards snow or sleet instead. If it pushes South; you end up destroying Charleston. The track of the low is killing us with Warm air. The surface isn't the problem. It's the midlevels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, Cape Hatteras is near 70 degrees at the surface with 850s around 10C during the heart of the storm on the 00z Euro. The warm nose means business... That's a huge temperature contrast. its pulling tropical moisture with it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 To show you how strong this wedge is..at the most western extent, the euro has freezing temps now into alabama....WEST of columbus by hour 42. It doesn't stay there long but to have freezing temps make it that far southwest is nuts. So I'd imagine the freezing line is going to get pretty damn far south in ga/sc. Fresh snowcover enhancement to enhance the wedge downstream into Central GA and points west into E AL for that wedge to penetrate. Locally, the snow clown maps has 3.3" snow in Dorchester County (IMBY) and 0.8" snow for KCHS (we all know that's all ice). literally translated, about maybe .1" at KCHS, and about 1/3" ice in Lower Dorchester County. previous run had nothing for KCHS and 0.5" snow depiction IMBY. big stepped increase. and basically for the Midlands, pretty much holds serve similar to the CMC and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spurscar Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, nothing against Charleston but the worst ice will hit somewhere and I live in Columbia, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If these numbers hold true and CAE gets over an inch of ice I have a feeling the seven 18-year-old Bradford Pear trees I have won't fair too well. It is amazing to see how much of SC could be affected by an appreciable amount of ZR. Really hope that temp line pushes south tomorrow and we lean more towards snow or sleet instead. You are correct! It's a tough call between which is the weaker tree: Bradford or pine? I think Bradford's will all be destroyed with that zr amount and 80% of pines! This is looking very historical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fresh snowcover enhancement to enhance the wedge downstream into Central GA and points west into E AL for that wedge to penetrate. Locally, the snow clown maps has 3.3" snow in Dorchester County (IMBY) and 0.8" snow for KCHS (we all know that's all ice). literally translated, about maybe .1" at KCHS, and about 1/3" ice in Lower Dorchester County. previous run had nothing for KCHS and 0.5" snow depiction IMBY. big stepped increase. and basically for the Midlands, pretty much holds serve similar to the CMC and RGEM Can you post the latest clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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