WNC_TarHeel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks for the answer. During hurricane Frances, the SE fetch was incredible.. over 16 inches of rain here. Im also a little worried about downsloping here after the wind turns to a more northerly trajectory... new GFS seems to hint at this Are you worried about downsloping for WNC? If so, I'd be more concerned about that if the system had to traverse the Smokies but not with this one coming out of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Are you worried about downsloping for WNC? If so, I'd be more concerned about that if the system had to traverse the Smokies but not with this one coming out of the south. Often times as the comma head and deformation band begins to set up and the wind direction turns more northerly, downsloping winds from the Blue ridge will often hurt rates or shut them off completely here. But its almost impossible to know where that band will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lookout or someone from the GA group tell us what the GFS is doing with us. I am no good with models and I have seen very little to tell us how these eastward shifts effect us. The 00z GFS paints a decent snow/ sleetstorm from I-20 northward.....with general 2-6" snowfall, except 6" or more in the northeast GA mountains. Taken verbatim the 00z NAM and GFS (discounting the NAM warm bias), it looks like areas along and south of I-20 will likely experience a very serious ice storm.....places such as Newnan, Griffin, Barnesville, Lake Jackson, south metro Atlanta, then south towards Macon and Milledgeville and east to Augusta and the Savannah river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z canadian is still showing some amazing totals. Also is a bit heavier with the snow over north ga, western north carolina and the upstate. With the freezing rain area at just sick levels indeed. Overall total followed by snow/sleet/frz. this will make delta happy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lookout, that's close to 2in. of ZR in East-Central GA and the Midlands.. even trying to get to Florence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Often times as the comma head and deformation band begins to set up and the wind direction turns more northerly, downsloping winds from the Blue ridge will often hurt rates or shut them off completely here. But its almost impossible to know where that band will set up I just realized you were in Marion. My apologies and you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Never seen anything like that before with some places progged at 2.5" of ice. That would be as bad as the '98 storm in Canada. Just crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If I were in Augusta or Central SC, I don't know what I'd do at this point. Every model is showing incredible ice totals there. Models are slowly pushing the ice totals south of me. Praying there's no northern trend. People there should just prepare themselves for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WLTX in CAE just updated their ice totals to 1" + rather than .5 - 1" appears they are deciding to following the models showing in excess of 1.25. Real concern is the constant gusts of up to 20 mph over weds and thurs. Has the capacity to completely break SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks for you reply much appreciated. I was not sure with the last GFS and NAM if things had changed much for us. It appears to be about the same so we will wait and see what happens in the next 24 to 48 hours. Concerning grow with more ice in our direction than snow and sleet. Gee, Lookout that leaves me speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro ticked SE some through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lookout, that's close to 2in. of ZR in East-Central GA and the Midlands.. even trying to get to Florence. Yep and taken literally, at the heart of it there is probably about 2.25 to maybe 2.50 or so. I hope folks along that axis is prepared for whats coming..or that they have been informed enough about how bad it could be. I'm guessing even if local mets are calling for extreme totals (which columbia is not joking around with a one inch ice forecast) that folks don't realize how bad that really is. Not to mention if you throw in 20 or 30mph winds. Even if the canadian is overdone, there is plenty of modeling showing extreme freezing rain accumulations..of which that many have never seen before. So regardless of whether you buy the heaviest model or not, it's pretty much all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Euro hammers GSO, CLT, and WNC. Greatest run ever. All-snow for CLT, GSO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think the euros east? Just a little, perfect track for GSO to CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Euro hammers GSO, CLT, and WNC. Greatest run ever. Hell I thought 12z was good, seriously better than that? Based on what I'm reading it closes of at h5 just slightly later, helps CLT and GSO get some breathing room with the SN/IP line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's pretty terrifying, SC and below does not trim their trees to the same respect as NC and above. I am getting ready for at least a 3 day power outage in my mind. Yep and taken literally, at the heart of it there is probably about 2.25 to maybe 2.50 or so. I hope folks along that axis is prepared for whats coming..or that they have been informed enough about how bad it could be. I'm guessing even if local mets are calling for extreme totals (which columbia is not joking around with a one inch ice forecast) that folks don't realize how bad that really is. Not to mention if you throw in 20 or 30mph winds. Even if the canadian is overdone, there is plenty of modeling showing extreme freezing rain accumulations..of which that many have never seen before. So regardless of whether you buy the heaviest model or not, it's pretty much all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WLTX in CAE just updated their ice totals to 1" + rather than .5 - 1" appears they are deciding to following the models showing in excess of 1.25. Real concern is the constant gusts of up to 20 mph over weds and thurs. Has the capacity to completely break SC. Winds are around 20. Gusts are 30+ good sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, 850s never get above -1C for GSO, CLT and CRASH down towards -4C shortly after. I'm all-in for a ton of snow now. The Euro is great. The surface low tracks from Waycross, GA (LOL) to Myrtle Beach to Elizabeth City. It is still more west than other modeling, but it's a lot colder than past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep and taken literally, at the heart of it there is probably about 2.25 to maybe 2.50 or so. I hope folks along that axis is prepared for whats coming..or that they have been informed enough about how bad it could be. I'm guessing even if local mets are calling for extreme totals (which columbia is not joking around with a one inch ice forecast) that folks don't realize how bad that really is. Not to mention if you throw in 20 or 30mph winds. Even if the canadian is overdone, there is plenty of modeling showing extreme freezing rain accumulations..of which that many have never seen before. So regardless of whether you buy the heaviest model or not, it's pretty much all the same. I'm going to be very unsmart.. and as long as I don't have a powerline on the ground close to me; I'm going to video the views and sounds of some of the ice breaking everything down. If I can do it halfway safely. Huge pecan tree right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, 850s never get above -1C for GSO, CLT and CRASH down towards -4C shortly after. I'm all-in for a ton of snow now. The Euro is great. How far east is the Euro? A significant shift, or minor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep and taken literally, at the heart of it there is probably about 2.25 to maybe 2.50 or so. I hope folks along that axis is prepared for whats coming..or that they have been informed enough about how bad it could be. I'm guessing even if local mets are calling for extreme totals (which columbia is not joking around with a one inch ice forecast) that folks don't realize how bad that really is. Not to mention if you throw in 20 or 30mph winds. Even if the canadian is overdone, there is plenty of modeling showing extreme freezing rain accumulations..of which that many have never seen before. So regardless of whether you buy the heaviest model or not, it's pretty much all the same. The model guidance depictions are absolutely mind-boggling and the consensus is undeniable. the axis of that ZR will cause devastation potentially as bad as Hurricane Hugo or even worse. Literally, this is a real state of emergency in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How far east is the Euro? A significant shift, or minor? It's actually pretty minor, but it's a lot colder. GSO gets 14.1", per the clown, and that's all-snow.... CLT about 13"... The foothills are 10-12" and the mountains are 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Never seen anything like that before with some places progged at 2.5" of ice. That would be as bad as the '98 storm in Canada. Just crippling. It's hard to imagine that happening down here. That '98 storm brought down the big steel transmission towers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, 850s never get above -1C for GSO, CLT and CRASH down towards -4C shortly after. I'm all-in for a ton of snow now. The Euro is great. The surface low tracks from Waycross, GA (LOL) to Myrtle Beach to Elizabeth City. It is still more west than other modeling, but it's a lot colder than past runs. Can't wait to see the snow total map. The eps will be interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The model guidance depictions are absolutely mind-boggling and the consensus is undeniable. the axis of that ZR will cause devastation potentially as bad as Hurricane Hugo or even worse. Literally, this is a real state of emergency in the making. Nikki Haley declared a state of emergency for SC for the last event and it really didn't need it. Not quite sure if she has yet for now... we definitely need the National Guard on standby for SC. Thankfully many of us are smarter and hit the grocery stores early and all that. I stocked up a ton on kerosene. I really feel for the elderly and sick. I hope they are forced into shelters if they can't take care of themselves. Mike, if this happens (as extreme as some models say) for some of SC; this will literally kill people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How about Goose Creek Sc ? I have a meeting to attend. Will I run into ice issues? Prepare now. Guidance came in colder still, and the NAM/GFS have 32 and 31 respectively at around 6 am WED morning. GFS has that 31 with .37" QPF at KCHS. in fact, Shawn posted a WxBell map earlier of the P-Types and amounts. pretty much across Dorchester and Berkeley counties, heavy accretions up to .5". in fact, the NW corner of Dorchester County had a blip of .75"-1" of ICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Terrifying part -- Most of everyone I'm explaining this to just thinks it's nothing. I expect to see the totals increase in the am. Winds are around 20. Gusts are 30+ good sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 some qpf totals please! good sir! 1.4" for GSO, 1.2" out your way, 1.3" for CLT, 1.2" for HKY... DC gets 2.5"ish QPF. It actually seems to line up quite well with the UKMET, at first glance. EDIT: 1.2" for Bristol, TN, too. Basically, if you're west of a line from maybe Burlington or Gibsonville down towards Charlotte, you've got 1"+ QPF of all-snow. EDIT #2: Check that. Burlington flips to sleet for a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 She will declare in between 10-2 tomorrow. I can assure you. Nikki Haley declared a state of emergency for SC for the last event and it really didn't need it. Not quite sure if she has yet for now... we definitely need the National Guard on standby for SC. Thankfully many of us are smarter and hit the grocery stores early and all that. I stocked up a ton on kerosene. I really feel for the elderly and sick. I hope they are forced into shelters if they can't take care of themselves. Mike, if this happens (as extreme as some models say) for some of SC; this will literally kill people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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