BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeh, he does definitely know his stuff...but the big ones he's always too conservative for. He's definitely not honking like he usually does. The transitions are just too tight between western sections of the Triangle and eastern sections, which is why he's so reserved. Chapel Hill could see a nice dump, and Zebulon could switch to plain rain. Pretty nuts. Yup. I can't remember him ever overestimating a storm. He always goes under, which is probably prudent. Especially, as you note, as there will be a sharp transition somewhere over his viewing area for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This high res map updates quick... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Thank you. Yes, it does look to have moved the snow/sleet line further east, which is a huge help for GSO/CLT, which had serious mixing issues in prior runs of the Canadian. That's a long-duration 24-hour event. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This high res map updates quick... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Oh man if that holds KCAE gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Two new CIPS analogs............. Are 1/22/87 and Mar. 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=nam&time=2014021100&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014021100&field=prec It looks like they a following the NAM. I think the offshore track with the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Two new CIPS analogs............. Are 1/22/87 and Mar. 93. I remember both, 1987 I had 16inches , 1993 , 17inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=nam&time=2014021100&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014021100&field=prec It looks like they a following the NAM. I think the offshore track with the GFS is right. Wow, the difference between those two -- 1" of freezing rain from the NAM, 1' of snow from the GFS. I'll take the GFS, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh man if that holds KCAE gets hammered. You know.. there is something major being looked over here. Yes thats a strong hit. a lot more sleet then ZR maybe... just off that page's precip maps. I'll be throwing a short post together in a few minutes about the real damage maker. (wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 mar 93 isn't a good analog imo. it had dynamics that could only happen in late winter/early spring. the setup is quite a bit different as well. i think the storm on christmas a few years ago and 87 are the two best analogs for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Okay. For anyone in the extreme freezing rain areas; this is what will kill all your trees and power lines that haven't already been severely damaged. I would post for the Euro/RGEM/CMC/UKMET.. but I dont have good free maps and I'm lazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Do not pay attention to Glen Burns. We will not get even 1" of ice, .5 maybe which would still be bad- but I still think that the worst ice is S/SE of Atlanta. To be fair to burns, who everyone knows I do not like at all, he didn't say that atlanta would see that much ice. He pointed out that it would be south and southeast of atlanta around the i-20 corridor. He said 0.10 to 0.25 for atlanta itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Somebody get lookout on here and ask him about glen burns. I just saw this after I made my previous post. Yeah folks don't want to get me started on glen mother****** burns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Okay. For anyone in the extreme freezing rain areas; this is what will kill all your trees and power lines that haven't already been severely damaged. I would post for the Euro/RGEM/CMC/UKMET.. but I dont have good free maps and I'm lazy. This would be absolutely devastating combined with the ice totals in SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris, it appears the GFS, CMC and RGEM all hammer this are with ZR...They certainly trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 mar 93 isn't a good analog imo. it had dynamics that could only happen in late winter/early spring. the setup is quite a bit different as well. i think the storm on christmas a few years ago and 87 are the two best analogs for this one. 93 was a triple phase system, correct me if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This would be absolutely devastating combined with the ice totals in SC/GA. Yes, 30-35mph gusts or even higher already breaks tree limbs on a normal day around KCAE. The winds as this thing blows up the coast could approach gusts of 40. The wind for the ZR areas isn't being stressed enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yup. I can't remember him ever overestimating a storm. He always goes under, which is probably prudent. Especially, as you note, as there will be a sharp transition somewhere over his viewing area for this storm. He hasn't recovered from Dec 2000 when he published an accumulation map with feet of snow in RTP, a redux of the Carolina crusher from Jan 2000 and it went east and we got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Okay. For anyone in the extreme freezing rain areas; this is what will kill all your trees and power lines that haven't already been severely damaged. I would post for the Euro/RGEM/CMC/UKMET.. but I dont have good free maps and I'm lazy. Absolutely frightening. Basically with the factor of wind and that much accretion of ice potentially, would put this in the Cat 5 of icestorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He hasn't recovered from Dec 2000 when he published an accumulation map with feet of snow in RTP, a redux of the Carolina crusher from Jan 2000 and it went east and we got nothing. if i remember right that storm was a product of the eta (now known as the nam)... that model sucks guys, don't buy into its thermal or qpf profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He hasn't recovered from Dec 2000 when he published an accumulation map with feet of snow in RTP, a redux of the Carolina crusher from Jan 2000 and it went east and we got nothing. Ugh, I had totally forgotten all about that! Luckily we still had memories of our 20"+ to dull that pain, but wow that did stink. That was an amazing bust, I had put it completely out of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 93 was a triple phase system, correct me if I'm wrong yea, it was a product of a large PNA ridge, which this storm is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 if i remember right that storm was a product of the eta (now known as the nam)... that model sucks guys, don't buy into its thermal or qpf profiles. I'm sure hoping the NAM is wrong -- an inch of freezing rain in RDU per latest run would be no fun. GFS with its foot of snow, however, is more than welcome to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm sure hoping the NAM is wrong -- an inch of freezing rain in RDU per latest run would be no fun. GFS with its foot of snow, however, is more than welcome to verify. i think something down the middle is prob most likely here. the only thing i don't want is a total sleet fest and i'm afraid that's going to happen. half the time you can't even see sleet in the lights at night. it might as well be volcanic ash coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 i think something down the middle is prob most likely here. the only thing i don't want is a total sleet fest and i'm afraid that's going to happen. half the time you can't even see sleet in the lights at night. it might as well be volcanic ash coming down. Given the choice between sleet and freezing rain I'll go sleet, but yeah, no fun. I remember a storm in Greensboro in either 1988 or 1989 where it was in the upper teens and sleeted all day -- got two or more inches. Was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You know.. there is something major being looked over here. Yes thats a strong hit. a lot more sleet then ZR maybe... just off that page's precip maps. I'll be throwing a short post together in a few minutes about the real damage maker. (wind) I actually got one of the folks in SC to mention the wind but the fact we're seeing gusts near 20 (if it holds) is terrifying when all the models are pointing in excess of 1.4 (i've seen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 i think something down the middle is prob most likely here. the only thing i don't want is a total sleet fest and i'm afraid that's going to happen. half the time you can't even see sleet in the lights at night. it might as well be volcanic ash coming down. Do models do a good job picking up orographic enhancement (such as what might occur on the eastern slopes of the blue ridge with a low level SE flow)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yea, it was a product of a large PNA ridge, which this storm is lacking. and not the mention that storm happened with a very simple pattern, and very well modeled back in the day. This storm is nothing but complexities, s/w's everywhere, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Do models do a good job picking up orographic enhancement (such as what might occur on the eastern slopes of the blue ridge with a low level SE flow) It takes a pretty unique situation for that to happen, but it's not out of the question for areas like lenior/morganton/marion. most model don't pick up on that, but it's only possible with a SE flow. that doesn't happen long with a Miller A coastal slp. the impact would probably be negligible. it's more noticeable if a tropical system is moving west of the apps and there a large SE fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GEFS is significantly wetter than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It takes a pretty unique situation for that to happen, but it's not out of the question for areas like lenior/morganton/marion. most model don't pick up on that, but it's only possible with a SE flow. that doesn't happen long with a Miller A coastal slp. the impact would probably be negligible. it's more noticeable if a tropical system is moving west of the apps and there a large SE fetch. Thanks for the answer. During hurricane Frances, the SE fetch was incredible.. over 16 inches of rain here. Im also a little worried about downsloping here after the wind turns to a more northerly trajectory... new GFS seems to hint at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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