packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One of the most interesting things I've seen is the UK, which has a terrible warm bias, is by far the coldest model at the 850 level. Makes you wonder if the others are too warm. I almost never look at the UK as the information is so lacking, but the track held. GFS is the farthest east solution, you know it will tick back west. Would be good if it had a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Something about the thermal profiles on the GFS is flawed... Check out the profile for KMRN @ 60 and then @ 66 and tell me what's wrong? Also scroll down and look at some of the convective indices? @60: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h60&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 @66: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h66&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Crazy increase in lower-level temps over that 6-hour period? Why would that occur? The convective indices are above my head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks great for GSP to CLT to GSO corridor. NAM and Euro suite are a touch west of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS soundings are surprisingly mostly snow at my house near Youngsville, except at hour 57 and 60. GFS would likely be mostly snow for me just north of RDU with probably a period of sleet and freezing rain. meanwhile, the NAM is a raging nasty freezing rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UK looks good, precip doesn't look as expansive though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What's up with the big temp rises at the end of the storm? As the coastal wraps up and becomes the primary storm, the CAD wedge erodes, that is one of the mechanisms that breaks down a wedge. Therefore we lose our cold air low level advection source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Crazy increase in lower-level temps over that 6-hour period? Why would that occur? The convective indices are above my head... I'm not experienced in all the convective values either...maybe a red tagger can educate us on that. But those temps at 66 were really bogus looking and it really showed in the clown maps having less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lookout or someone from the GA group tell us what the GFS is doing with us. I am no good with models and I have seen very little to tell us how these eastward shifts effect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fishel hinting at RDU possibly starting as a little snow and then right into the sleet. I wonder if that's their in house model or if they are closely following the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP updated map. Not much change. http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Looks like a few areas were decreased slightly - Clemson to Anderson went down, as did Greenville (think Greenville was over 8" with the last one.) That map perfectly illustrates what I observe virtually every time, where the eastern upstate (Spartanburg/Cherokee/York) get more than western upstate. This time I guess it is due to precip not making it far enough west instead of to down-sloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah I was surprised at Fishel's forecast. I don't think we have seen any model that would indicate such an early shift to ice (and after, even rain). NAM seems to come closest to suggesting that, but this seemed even warmer (and I presume more west) than even the most recent NAM. Maybe he's going with an in-house model or just following his gut (and he does have years of experience). He also didn't even discuss totals (not even liquid equivalent) -- just felt a bit rushed considering the potential significance of the storm we've got coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 UK looks good, precip doesn't look as expansive though... Wow, a 996mb low near ILM ... that's really impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Glenn burns, met in ATL, now calling for catastrophic ice storm in ATL. 24-36 hours of freezing rain. Some spots around ATL seeing 1.5 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Regarding the UK, doesn't a stronger low offshore like is depicted usually mean a sharper cut-off on precip to the W/NW as well as chocking off WNC / upstate SC snow earlier due to transferring energy to the low? Seems like that is what happened with January 2000 in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fishel hinting at RDU possibly starting as a little snow and then right into the sleet. I wonder if that's their in house model or if they are closely following the NAM. You wouldn't think anything outside a run-of-the-mill winter weather event is on the way by watching them this evening. That may turn out correct. These extreme solutions usually don't quite pan out. But based on every model I've seen, except the Euro, RDU stays frozen throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, a 996mb low near ILM ... that's really impressive Is that 8 contours closed off I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Glenn burns, met in ATL, now calling for catastrophic ice storm in ATL. 24-36 hours of freezing rain. Some spots around ATL seeing 1.5 inches of ice. I don't think any model has shown 1.5 inches of ice on Atlanta. Maybe up to .75, but mostly .25-.5 higher to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Regarding the UK, doesn't a stronger low offshore like is depicted usually mean a sharper cut-off on precip to the W/NW as well as chocking off WNC / upstate SC snow earlier due to transferring energy to the low? Seems like that is what happened with January 2000 in particular. That sounds right to me. I think the stronger low results in tighter rotation which leads to a sharper cutoff and a faster rotation away from the western edges. One reason we don't want it to get too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, add the CMC to the trend of a bit further south with the SLP (going over NFL) and def. colder at 2m again over GA. Trends....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't think any model has shown 1.5 inches of ice on Atlanta. Maybe up to .75, but mostly .25-.5 higher to the SE. Glenn had a major stormgasm. He has reeled that in for winter weather as of late but goes all in on severe weather. Kind of surprises me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, add the CMC to the trend of a bit further south with the SLP (going over NFL) and def. colder at 2m again over GA. Trends....... If the Euro trends SE that would be all of them but the UK right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That sounds right to me. I think the stronger low results in tighter rotation which leads to a sharper cutoff and a faster rotation away from the western edges. One reason we don't want it to get too strong. The January 2000 low hit 986mb. Anyone have handy its path? Did it go over the OBX or stay off? Unfortunately the post-mortem isn't clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CMC is a big hit for WNC, looks like CLT is right on the IP/SN line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GGEM looks to have come south and east (I'm splitting hairs). Out to hr 48, it's crushing the I-85 corridor and into the foothills and mountains. Of course, I'm just looking at the B&W maps, which kind of suck. EDIT: Well, it's similar to the RGEM, as you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Do not pay attention to Glen Burns. We will not get even 1" of ice, .5 maybe which would still be bad- but I still think that the worst ice is S/SE of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You wouldn't think anything outside a run-of-the-mill winter weather event is on the way by watching them this evening. That may turn out correct. These extreme solutions usually don't quite pan out. But based on every model I've seen, except the Euro, RDU stays frozen throughout. Yeh, he does definitely know his stuff...but the big ones he's always too conservative for. He's definitely not honking like he usually does. The transitions are just too tight between western sections of the Triangle and eastern sections, which is why he's so reserved. Chapel Hill could see a nice dump, and Zebulon could switch to plain rain. Pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Somebody get lookout on here and ask him about glen burns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1135 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 12Z EC MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS DIFFERENT EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE...REGARDING A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH A SLOWER/NORTHWARD DISPLACED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BY WED MORNING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...A FEATURE WHICH HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IN THE NAM BY EARLY THU OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED...BUT HAVE MADE A WHOLESALE SHIFT SLOWER AND WEST. THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW PLOT ENVELOPE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS/CMC MEMBERS JUST RIGHT OF THE ECMWF MEMBER CLUSTER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS PRECLUDES USE OF THE 12Z CMC WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE ECMWF AND ITS MEAN BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST... DESPITE THE WESTWARD TREND SEEN IN ALL OF THE MODELS...THE SAFER PLACE IS JUST A BIT EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS POSITION LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE WHEN BLENDED WITH THE 12Z EC MEAN...WITH THE EC MEAN A BIT EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GGEM looks to have come south and east. Out to hr 48, it's crushing the I-85 corridor and into the foothills and mountains. Of course, I'm just looking at the B&W maps, which kind of suck. This high res map updates quick... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fishel hinting at RDU possibly starting as a little snow and then right into the sleet. I wonder if that's their in house model or if they are closely following the NAM. they may be taking a blend of two or more models, they sometimes do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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