deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM ugly for FRZN for central GA/SC http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&type=ZR&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=na OUCH!!! Thats very close to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ya, I just know about this wedge...hahah Check this out. valid 12z WED 12z wed nam buf.png Yeah it's nuts to think there is almost a 20 degree temperature swing over a distance of only 3 or 4 thousand feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OUCH!!! Thats very close to me A lot of sleet involved with that too. In fact, the ZR event looks much less intense for KCAE proper per 00z RGEM. Augusta could get wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OUCH!!! Thats very close to me Looks like it's right over you to me. That run keeps it mainly snow or sleet here. btw, total precip altogether. not quite as extreme as the nam but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like it's right over you to me. That run keeps it mainly snow or sleet here. ya that looks like 20-25mm and that would be..... .78-.98" QPF of ZR...holy shiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks like its def. colder around your place and mine at least at 2m, Chris edit through 00z thur its def colder at 2m, not sure about aloft, but that qpf bullseye might be the trick dynamically around our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wow, gfs much colder. frz rain to the coast here in the lowcountry. nam was colder too and very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks man. It's going to take some work to get the warm nose far enough away from us. I'm hoping we can just lose enough over the next couple of cycles to keep the ZR out, like you said. You can see the trend here. The NAM is trying, at least. This is during the 12z 1/12 to 12z 1/13 time period at KRDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I gotta say, I like the look of the 00z gfs for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS definitely east, deform band crushes CLT to GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I have been on the line between all snow and snow/sleet/ for days now. Finally, the 00z NAM and GFS both keep Clemson, SC at or below freezing at all layers for the entire event. Just 15 miles to the south, Anderson, SC has a substantial period of sleet. If you take the model consensus, I-85 is the perfect dividing line between all snow and snow/sleet mix. I’ve lived long enough to know you can’t bank on model output for soundings even 24 hours before the event starts, but I just can’t help to think maybe Pickens county will finally catch it’s white whale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I gotta say, I like the look of the 00z gfs for central NC. Much better for RDU, gets stuck in the comma head on exit...snow totals will be upped from 18z I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm all in for rain or snow. Heck, even sleet. That freezing rain stuff can stay away. Lucky to have lived in Greensboro during the amazing January 1987 snow and in Raleigh for the more amazing 2002 and the even more epic 2000 snows. This one feels big as well, almost like the lead-up to the 2000 storm with a significant overrun for all of southern NC (including one foot in CLT) the day before and nothing great expected for RDU -- just an inch or so and then switching over to ice "any moment now." It never did. I remember watching Greg on WRAL in just absolute disbelief at what was happening and the NWS forecast accumulations were always behind what had already happened. Just amazing, with nearly 20" here at the house. As it was pre-digital for me I don't have pictures on hand but I really should scan a few. Here's a pic from the 2002 snow in RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wow, gfs much colder. frz rain to the coast here in the lowcountry. nam was colder too and very close. The NAM had a SFC temp of 32 on WED at 09z at KCHS with moderate rain falling basically the battle lines are drawn right across there. I'll need to get some datasets from meteostar when it updates, but the guidance is starting to "realize" the shallow arctic air at the SFC and it's punch. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kchs.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, It appears the GFS has spoken around this area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 00Z GFS run definitely seems east with the comma head deformation band. It really sets up oriented N/S over KCLT and then moves east. The foothills and mountains would seem to miss out on this band, IF the GFS is right. I'm still holding out that the Euro/CMC/NAM will have the right solution. But, there's no way I'm staying up for the Euro tonight. Edit: It's not that the foothills and mountains don't get snow, it's just that they don't get as much as has seemed possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I must say, I have starting see some model trends, hell even the crappy run of the nam did it, of shifting the heaviest ZR band south of AHN and now its just north of MCN to AGS. Will be interesting to see if the models continue to cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This would look like a more potent storm for the Midlands and east in SC with different precip types. It has precip going thru Thursday morning with temps at 33 on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM has 6-10" of snow already on the ground at GSP/CLT/UZA by 7PM Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ya that looks like 20-25mm and that would be..... .78-.98" QPF of ZR...holy shiz Totals are about the same here (1.75 with 2 inches within spitting dinstance)..but over 3.5 inches over central georgia and unfortunately just south of augusta...as if it can get any worse there already. Maaaaan... that run earlier made me a little more optimistic, but if KCAE is right about the wedge... we're gonna get whooped. I trust you saw the forecast discussion from them I posted earlier, they're similarly pessimistic, outright predicting .5-1" ZR and saying if the QPF is realized... it could be even higher. Lookout, ain't that the truth. This could paralyze the whole Augusta metro and the fort. The mets better get on board tomorrow... the forecast was calling for a bust until literally 5 minutes ago, now they're starting to waffle: http://www.nbc26.tv/story/24687108/more-wintry-weather-possible-in-georgia-carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I must say, I have starting see some model trends, hell even the crappy run of the nam did it, of shifting the heaviest ZR band south of AHN and now its just north of MCN to AGS. Will be interesting to see if the models continue to cool One graphic I saw had the wedge almost to SE Alabama on the GFS. That sucker means serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From the crappy maps I have the UK looks the same as it's 12z run, definitely west of GFS, right over Hatteras it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM had a SFC temp of 32 on WED at 09z at KCHS with moderate rain falling basically the battle lines are drawn right across there. I'll need to get some datasets from meteostar when it updates, but the guidance is starting to "realize" the shallow arctic air at the SFC and it's punch. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kchs.txt yep, you were right about the models underestimating the strength of the wedge/cold and it seems they are playing catchup. just out to tomorrow morning the hrrr seems colder than the nam/gfs up near kflo where it is showing moderate snow tom morning thru 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM has 6-10" of snow already on the ground at GSP/CLT/UZA by 7PM Wednesday night. Good news then and in line with the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM seems to overdo warm noses, if I recall. We'll still have one, so sleet is a guarantee in RDU. I'd just like it to stay sleet or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From the crappy maps I have the UK looks the same as it's 12z run, definitely west of GFS, right over Hatteras it looks like. One of the most interesting things I've seen is the UK, which has a terrible warm bias, is by far the coldest model at the 850 level. Makes you wonder if the others are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Please remove if needed good people! (just letting some take a look at that crazy ice axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 00Z GFS run definitely seems east with the comma head deformation band. It really sets up oriented N/S over KCLT and then moves east. The foothills and mountains would seem to miss out on this band, IF the GFS is right. I'm still holding out that the Euro/CMC/NAM will have the right solution. But, there's no way I'm staying up for the Euro tonight. Edit: It's not that the foothills and mountains don't get snow, it's just that they don't get as much as has seemed possible. Something about the thermal profiles on the GFS is flawed... Check out the profile for KMRN @ 60 and then @ 66 and tell me what's wrong? Also scroll down and look at some of the convective indices? @60: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h60&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 @66: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h66&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 FWIW, the last couple GFS runs have shown subtle hints at thunderstorm potential around 0z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What's up with the big temp rises at the end of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP updated map. Not much change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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