strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Deform band showed up at HR 48. Phase late, but still a good smack, in WNC. This run jackpots the upstate and CLT with 9 to 12 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 upstate looks to be ground zero early (through hr 60). already 9 to 12 on clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking at QPF field vs. 18z, very similar -- some of the 1.5+ areas trimmed back from I-85 corridor in S.C./N.C. but hardly something worth complaining about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Weaker, warmer and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ho hum, just another 10-inch, all snow event modeled by the NAM for Shelby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Weaker, warmer and drier. The NAM has been warmer than most anyway, not a surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The newest from NWS KCAE- 000 FXUS62 KCAE 110202 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 902 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT COLD AIR INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. DANGEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUILDS SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. RADAR NOW SHOWING RAIN DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL GEORGIA MOVING TOWARD CSRA...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. RAISED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...UPDATED ICING FORECAST...0.5 TO 1 INCH IN CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA. ...SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER... ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE RIDGE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTH...A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN IN THE CENTRAL PART...AND RAIN WITH A LITTLE SLEET POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH PART TUESDAY. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO WE EXPECT ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ACCUMULATION FOR TRAVEL PROBLEM IN THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS AND WE HAVE POSTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE GFS AND NAM MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS ARE CLOSE AND SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN. DANGEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM QPF. AVERAGE MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE 1.00 INCH WHICH IS A CONCERN...SO RAISED ICING FORECAST TO 0.5 TO 1.00 INCH ICING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THERE IS A POSSIBLY OF EVEN GREATER ICE AMOUNTS IF QPF IS REALIZED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ICE ACCUMULATION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY. WE USED A LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY WHICH WAS COLDER THAN THE GFS AND NAM MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Weaker, warmer and drier.I think this may actually be better for our area. Looks like a little more front end snow for us and then the 850s stay closer hopefully keeping most of the precip sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 850 low track looks sick for the western Piedmont, IMO. Thoughts on that? You want to be on the NW side of that and it appears to track from around Rockingham up towards Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ho hum, just another 10-inch, all snow event modeled by the NAM for Shelby. The slightly later phase did keep the mid level warmth a hair farther away from us while maintaining 1"+ QPF. Overall it's a consistent run with no major flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The slightly later phase did keep the mid level warmth a hair farther away from us while maintaining 1"+ QPF. Overall it's a consistent run with no major flips. Yeah, there's only a 3 hour window of possible mixing this run at CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM (and most models) just doesn't want to bring that 0c line through macon...hahah they bring it just to my E and NE and stop at 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soymark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 850 low track looks sick for the western Piedmont, IMO. Thoughts on that? You want to be on the NW side of that and it appears to track from around Rockingham up towards Raleigh. Are you saying the low is tracking over that Rockingham to Raleigh corridor, or is the good snowfall setting up from that corridor and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM (and most models) just doesn't want to bring that 0c line through macon...hahah they bring it just to my E and NE and stop at 33 degrees New run has the freezing line pushed all the way up just about into southern TN! Quite a shift from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Based on the 850mb / 700mb low tracks, 500mb vort max track, deform band setup, and upslope flow, I continue to see the following as jackpot areas in NC for snow even though the QPF may not max out there: central/northern mountains and central/northern foothills, including: Asheville, Morganton, Hickory, Mt. Airy, Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems consist from your thoughts during the 18Z runs today. However, the folks in the southern foothills look to cash in also.. Based on the 850mb / 700mb low tracks, 500mb vort max track, deform band setup, and upslope flow, I continue to see the following as jackpot areas in NC for snow even though the QPF may not max out there: central/northern mountains and central/northern foothills, including: Asheville, Morganton, Hickory, Mt. Airy, Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 New run has the freezing line pushed all the way up just about into southern TN! Quite a shift from the last run. That is where the NAM had earlier yesterday IIRC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems consist from your thoughts during the 18Z runs today. However, the folks in the southern foothills look to cash in also.. Yeah, wasn't looking to discount any other areas, just think those areas are in the best spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM (and most models) just doesn't want to bring that 0c line through macon...hahah they bring it just to my E and NE and stop at 33 degrees This wedge means business here. The nam has it going from 36 degrees at hour 30, to 31 degrees just 3 hours later. Considering conditions are already saturated that is impressive to say the least. End up bottoming out at around 26 or 27. The nam is frustrating because every single run it goes back and forth on the depth and magnitude of the warm nose here. the 18z run it was very narrow while the 0z run it's a good bit more pronounced and deeper. Meaning the difference between a snow/sleet mix to possibly as far as freezing rain. It's been going back and forth with each run like this and it's hard to trust it. Totals are about the same here (1.75 with 2 inches within spitting dinstance)..but over 3.5 inches over central georgia and unfortunately just south of augusta...as if it can get any worse there already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think this may actually be better for our area. Looks like a little more front end snow for us and then the 850s stay closer hopefully keeping most of the precip sleet. The NAM has been really trying to cut down on the warm nose and trend colder aloft. KRDU 825-925(or so)mb / max degrees C 0z yesterday - 7+ 06z - 7 (but bubble squashed) 12z - 3 18z - 4 0z - ? If we can just trend to a column of 0 or lower throughout the event I'd be happy, ha. I'd even take 1-2 C as long as it's shallow and doesn't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This wedge means business here. The nam has it going from 36 degrees at hour 30, to 31 degrees just 3 hours later. Considering conditions are already saturated that is impressive to say the least. End up bottoming out at around 26 or 27. The nam is frustrating because every single run it goes back and forth on the depth and magnitude of the warm nose here. the 18z run it was very narrow while the 0z run it's a good bit more pronounced and deeper. Meaning the difference between a snow/sleet mix to possibly as far as freezing rain. It's been going back and forth with each run like this and it's hard to trust it. Totals are about the same here (1.75)..but over 3.5 inches over central georgia and unfortunately just south of augusta...as if it can get any worse there already. Ya, its super frustrating...Even the 4KM NAM gets literally to Bibb county and backs up (but I can't figure out why) There should not be a reason to kill the 2m fresh NE flow. My gut still tells me we get down to like 30-32, but maybe not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM has been really trying to cut down on the warm nose and trend colder aloft. KRDU 825-925(or so)mb / max degrees C 0z yesterday - 7+ 06z - 7 (but bubble squashed) 12z - 3 18z - 4 0z - ? If we can just trend to a column of 0 or lower throughout the event I'd be happy, ha. I'd even take 1-2 C as long as it's shallow and doesn't last long. Aren't you farther south than me? We're probably in the +5/+6 range for our area, according to the graphic WeatherNC posted in banter. What's the general temp in that layer that would mean IP vs ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Brad P with an update map: "Here's my latest snowfall map. Added some high amounts on the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. " Andy Wood updated map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z RGEM at 36 hours -- precip field is north of 12z run. But, just as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Aren't you farther south than me? We're probably in the +5/+6 range for our area, according to the graphic WeatherNC posted in banter. What's the general temp in that layer that would mean IP vs ZR? Yeah I'm in Harnett but I pull as if I'm at RDU, that's where my heart is. I just want to destroy the warm nose, so ZR is out of the question at least. If it's very shallow nose, it's IP. If it doesn't exist, it's snow. Anything below 4 degrees I'd say is a good start at seeing IP...has to be shallow too aka only spanning 50-100mb would be my guess, maybe not even that. Deep warm air aloft but less than say 2 degrees but more than 0, spanning 200mb or so, would be freezing drizzle. That's how I understand it, roughly, but I'm no x'pert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM ugly for FRZN for central GA/SC http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&type=ZR&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=na Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This wedge means business here. The nam has it going from 36 degrees at hour 30, to 31 degrees just 3 hours later. Considering conditions are already saturated that is impressive to say the least. End up bottoming out at around 26 or 27. The nam is frustrating because every single run it goes back and forth on the depth and magnitude of the warm nose here. the 18z run it was very narrow while the 0z run it's a good bit more pronounced and deeper. Meaning the difference between a snow/sleet mix to possibly as far as freezing rain. It's been going back and forth with each run like this and it's hard to trust it. Totals are about the same here (1.75 with 2 inches within spitting dinstance)..but over 3.5 inches over central georgia and unfortunately just south of augusta...as if it can get any worse there already. ya, I just know about this wedge...hahah Check this out. valid 12z WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow....one CLT met said 3 maybe 4" in Charlotte. Huh?? Where are people getting info with 10" totals for Charlotte? Everyone is just making it up because we here at eastern think it's cool to allow posters, including other mets, to post false proclamations of expected snow totals. In case you didn't know, that's called sarcasm. Good grief. Take the time to READ and you will see why. Why is it so hard for some to use a little common sense instead of having to have it spelled out to them 100 times? And yes I'm being snappy about this because it's getting old having to delete 500 posts like these and that's only part of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah I'm in Harnett but I pull as if I'm at RDU, that's where my heart is. I just want to destroy the warm nose, so ZR is out of the question at least. If it's very shallow nose, it's IP. If it doesn't exist, it's snow. Anything below 4 degrees I'd say is a good start at seeing IP...has to be shallow too aka only spanning 50-100mb would be my guess, maybe not even that. Deep warm air aloft but less than say 2 degrees but more than 0, spanning 200mb or so, would be freezing drizzle. That's how I understand it, roughly, but I'm no x'pert. Thanks man. It's going to take some work to get the warm nose far enough away from us. I'm hoping we can just lose enough over the next couple of cycles to keep the ZR out, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure if this belongs to storm discussion thread, but I thought this tweet might be worth it: @RyanMaue 3m 5-day ECMWF skill scores continue to soar -- charging into record high territory: 0.90 is good -- 0.97 is excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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