LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I swear the NAM is flirting with a snow event tomorrow through north Georgia with the first batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z NAM is going to give us another look. Again. Dries out North AL & Southern TN by 12-18HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z NAM slower with southern s/w than 18z run. When this happened with GFS last night, it meant a westward trend. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Southern energy stronger through 21 hours and slower -- a good 100+ miles due West of 18z position. #comingwest?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z NAM slower with southern s/w than 18z run. When this happened with GFS last night, it meant a westward trend. We shall see. It's that northern energy you want to watch that is going to determine the phase. Looks close to its 18z run which phased them at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF plume for RDU is about 4", I weeded out 3 or 4 members that showed like 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I swear the NAM is flirting with a snow event tomorrow through north Georgia with the first batch I've been watching the obs down there but I think unfortunately the killer is going to be the wind backing NE in the next few hours, it may very well advect higher DPs currently over SC and NE GA into other parts of NRN GA...at this point I could see your area getting maybe down to 35 or 36/28 for a time but that NE wind prior to the arrival of the precip near 12Z or after may just make it a hair to warm...there are also alot of sneaky warm noses from 850-925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warmer at 2m a bit over GA at hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Stormsfury, you nailed the icestorm in 2004. Are you thinking this is similar for the midlands? To be honest, I don't think any of us have seen the ice depictions being spit out by the guidance in the Southeast. This type of icestorm is one of those once in a lifetime events, and at least 5 days worth of pretty much the same depictions make me cringe on the aftermath of that amount of icing being progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colawx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 To be honest, I don't think any of us have seen the ice depictions being spit out by the guidance in the Southeast. This type of icestorm is one of those once in a lifetime events, and at least 5 days worth of pretty much the same depictions make me cringe on the aftermath of that amount of icing being progged Thanks, appreciate your opinion. Hope to see you posting throughout this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks to me like this run of the NAM my phase a tad further East than the 18z out to 33 it lines up well ton it's previous run but Northern energy looks a tad slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like Atlanta is about to get hit with some nasty freezing rain starting at hour 36. Could be sleet, haven't seen temps but two meter temps are crashing from he northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z NAM is going to be a terrible run for AL with 2nd wave it looks like.Flooded with warm air @ 850 with earlier phase west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well Burger's got it going east, I've got it coming west. Who will be right? (Hint: I'm never right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HUGE SW movement with 2m temps at hour 36 right at QPF coming into state. 0c line is just to MCN NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Phasing @39 looks a tad East and more of a negative or neutral tilt compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Phasing @39 looks a tad East and more of a negative or neutral tilt compared to 18z It is but it's not as sharp, not sure what is going to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Funky look @42 looses the phase but looks to phase again lol NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Definitely not phasing as strong, should be weaker, which may not be good for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really wild run @45 colder and heavy snow coming into WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know we're not supposed to get snow in northern NC til wed .That being said when looking at the radar the moisture out west tonight looks like it's trying to fill in in western Tennessee. Anyone have any thoughts on this being an issue for us tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 850s considerably warmer over Ga./Ala.at 42 -- in fact, the line is at the Tenn. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Winds picking up in KCAE not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Definitely not phasing as strong, should be weaker, which may not be good for a lot of people. Not sure I buy such a late phase. Jackpots My back yard but again not sure I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure I buy such a late phase. Jackpots My back yard but again not sure I buy it.It's also been a trend for the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This run jackpots the upstate and CLT with 9 to 12 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks to be a great run for the northwestern Piedmont. Lots of QPF and probably all-snow. Great run for CLT, as well, and over towards HKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sure seemed different at 5h to end up with a very similar result in terms of sensible weather. Surface Low perhaps a touch south of 18z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 havent checked the nam yet, but the sref shows a mean just over 6" here and then about .30 of zr (just to my north) the one just to my south has a whopping .5 zr so looks like that line is going to be waver around ne ga. looks to be fun with any and all kinds of frozen precip falling during the storm. in the upstate looks like nearly 8" mean and a lot less ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Everyone calm down with refreshing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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